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受到广泛关注的情绪指标在 3 月初达到了加密货币市场局部顶部附近的极度贪婪水平,但现在正在向相反的方向突破其极限。
Crypto investor sentiment hit its lowest levels since early January as bitcoin's (BTC) drop below $54,000 pulled down digital asset markets.
随着比特币 (BTC) 跌破 54,000 美元拉低数字资产市场,加密货币投资者情绪跌至 1 月初以来的最低水平。
The widely-followed Crypto Fear & Greed Index, created by data source Alternative.me, shows market enthusiasm towards bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies, with 0 being extreme fear and 100 translating to extreme greed.
由数据源Alternative.me创建的广受关注的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数显示了市场对比特币和其他大型加密货币的热情,0代表极度恐惧,100代表极度贪婪。
The gauge dropped to 29 on Friday, its deepest dive into the fear zone since early January 2023 when bitcoin was trading around $17,000 after 2022's crushing bear market.
该指标周五跌至 29,这是自 2023 年 1 月初以来最深的恐慌区域,当时比特币在 2022 年的熊市之后交易价格约为 17,000 美元。
The metric notably sent out a contrarian sell signal this past March when it reached the 90 level at near what turned out to be (so far) the 2024 top of the broader crypto market and bitcoin's all-time high of about $73,500. Since then, BTC and ether (ETH) are 25%-30% lower, while altcoin majors plunged around 50% and smaller tokens lost even more.
今年 3 月,该指标特别发出了逆向卖出信号,当时该指标触及 90 水平,接近(迄今为止)2024 年更广泛的加密货币市场的顶部,也是比特币约 73,500 美元的历史高点。此后,BTC 和以太币 (ETH) 下跌 25%-30%,而主要山寨币暴跌 50% 左右,规模较小的代币跌幅更大。
Is the bottom in? Extreme levels of fear may present buying opportunities, but the reality is more nuanced with several factors to be considered.
底部到了吗?极度的恐惧可能会带来买入机会,但现实情况更加微妙,需要考虑几个因素。
The key catalysts behind the downturn was the unloading of seized bitcoin by German and U.S. governments, along with "preemptively sell[ing]" as the estate of defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox started to refund investors this month, wrote Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of derivatives trading venue SynFutures, in a market update.
经济低迷背后的关键催化剂是德国和美国政府抛售扣押的比特币,以及随着已解散的日本交易所 Mt. Gox 的资产本月开始向投资者退款而“抢先出售”,首席执行官 Rachel Lin 写道。衍生品交易场所 SynFutures 的联合创始人在市场更新中。
The selling pressure is unlikely to abate in the short-term, she said. The German government still holds some $2.2 billion worth of BTC, the U.S. government has over $12 billion and the Mt. Gox estate has more than $8 billion of assets, according to data by blockchain tracing platform Arkham Intelligence.
她表示,短期内抛售压力不太可能减弱。根据区块链追踪平台 Arkham Intelligence 的数据,德国政府仍持有价值约 22 亿美元的 BTC,美国政府持有超过 120 亿美元,Mt. Gox 庄园拥有超过 80 亿美元的资产。
"The direction of bitcoin in the coming days will be determined by the selling pressure from Mt.Gox users," Lin added.
“未来几天比特币的走向将取决于 Mt.Gox 用户的抛售压力,”Lin 补充道。
"The market expects most Mt. Gox users dump their tokens, but we might see a bounce back if the selling is lower than anticipated," she said. "On the other hand, if there is enough selling to push the price lower, we might be looking at the $50,000 level soon."
“市场预计大多数 Mt.Gox 用户都会抛售他们的代币,但如果抛售低于预期,我们可能会看到反弹,”她说。 “另一方面,如果有足够的抛售来压低价格,我们可能很快就会看到 50,000 美元的水平。”
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research trimmed his $55,000 price target to $50,000. "This situation may compel ETF holders and miners to liquidate more positions," he said in an emailed note, adding that August and September are historically "challenging months" for bitcoin. However, he added, "if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, bitcoin could see another rally attempt."
10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 将其 55,000 美元目标价下调至 50,000 美元。他在一封电子邮件中表示:“这种情况可能迫使 ETF 持有者和矿工清算更多头寸。”他补充说,从历史上看,8 月和 9 月对比特币来说是“充满挑战的月份”。不过,他补充道,“如果美联储在 9 月份降息,比特币可能会再次尝试反弹。”
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