Coinbase Global, Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）股价下跌约 5%

加密货币整体市值的下降影响了 Coinbase 的日均交易量，较上一季度下降了 27.56%

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) shares have dropped by approximately 5% since I last wrote on them in late June as Bitcoin is roughly flat, but the prices of altcoins have suffered from sharp declines. The drop in the overall crypto market cap has impacted Coinbase's average daily volumes by 27.56% compared to the previous quarter after they reported a decline in user engagement and trading activity on the platform.

自我上次在 6 月下旬撰写有关 Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）的文章以来，Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）的股价已下跌约 5％，因为比特币大致持平，但山寨币的价格却急剧下跌。在 Coinbase 报告平台上的用户参与度和交易活动下降后，整体加密货币市值的下降导致 Coinbase 的日均交易量较上一季度下降了 27.56%。

In Q2, the exchange's market share slid to 41.2% from 44.6% in Q1 after heightened competition (from companies like Robinhood (HOOD) which I also happen to be bullish on) and thus user migration to other platforms.

在竞争加剧（来自我也恰好看好的 Robinhood (HOOD) 等公司）以及用户迁移到其他平台之后，第二季度，该交易所的市场份额从第一季度的 44.6% 下滑至 41.2%。

The crypto market's recent bearish tilt is a function of Vice President Kamala Harris' strong showing in polls showing she has a real chance of becoming president (much higher than Biden did a month ago). Critics fear she will adopt policies that are even less favorable to the cryptocurrency sector than the Biden administration.

加密货币市场最近的看跌倾向是副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在民意调查中的强劲表现，显示她有真正成为总统的机会（比一个月前的拜登高得多）。批评者担心她将采取比拜登政府更不利于加密货币行业的政策。

What's notable about this is that she has been far less outspoken on the issue compared to her opponent, Donald Trump, who has been a vocal supporter of the crypto industry.

值得注意的是，与她的对手唐纳德·特朗普相比，她在这个问题上的直言不讳得多，后者一直是加密行业的直言不讳的支持者。

I think that the concerns about Harris' potential presidency devastating to the cryptocurrency market appear overblown. In the past, the U.S. stock market has demonstrated growth across both Democratic and Republican administrations. The cryptocurrency market has done the same. And I expect that going forward, the cryptocurrency market will likely exhibit a similar trend.

我认为，人们对哈里斯当选总统对加密货币市场造成毁灭性打击的担忧似乎有些言过其实。过去，美国股市在民主党和共和党政府期间都表现出增长。加密货币市场也做了同样的事情。我预计未来加密货币市场可能会呈现类似的趋势。

Under President Biden (specifically SEC Chairman Gary Gensler), the market has definitely been affected by the increasing regulatory scrutiny, but that doesn't mean it has collapsed. Similarly, I think this means that a Harris administration would not be the grenade into the crypto machine like many fear it would. The U.S. financial system (and I think the Defi market as well with most coins being decentralized) tends to find an equilibrium regardless of the political chaos, as the investors who participate in crypto are now spread across different income levels and global markets. It's really one of the most global financial markets we have. Do we really think one country's leader is going to stop all that?

在拜登总统（特别是美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒）的领导下，市场肯定受到了日益严格的监管审查的影响，但这并不意味着它已经崩溃。同样，我认为这意味着哈里斯政府不会像许多人担心的那样成为加密货币机器的手榴弹。无论政治混乱如何，美国的金融体系（我认为 Defi 市场以及大多数去中心化的代币）往往会找到平衡，因为参与加密货币的投资者现在分布在不同的收入水平和全球市场。它确实是我们拥有的最全球化的金融市场之一。我们真的认为一个国家的领导人会阻止这一切吗？

On top of this, I think Congress is actually moving in the opposite direction, with legislation on the docket to help safeguard crypto as a legitimate asset class. I believe these legislative developments will further help provide favorable legal frameworks to the world of crypto.

最重要的是，我认为国会实际上正在朝着相反的方向前进，即将立法以帮助保护加密货币作为合法资产类别。我相信这些立法进展将进一步有助于为加密世界提供有利的法律​​框架。

In essence, I think all of this political bearishness is overblown. I'm still bullish on Coinbase. I believe they will benefit from the still strong (and YoY growing) investor confidence in crypto that will outlast short-term political concerns.

从本质上讲，我认为所有这些政治悲观情绪都被夸大了。我仍然看好 Coinbase。我相信他们将受益于投资者对加密货币依然强劲（且同比增长）的信心，这种信心将超越短期的政治担忧。

I believe a lot of the crypto market's reaction has been influenced by political developments with the odds of Trump winning the presidential election now lower. The sudden shift in political expectations after President Joe Biden's decision to back out has raised a lot of concern among crypto investors. They fear that without Trump's support for less crypto regulation, Harris might likely impose stricter regulations that curb the rapid expansion of the market.

我相信加密货币市场的很多反应都受到政治发展的影响，特朗普赢得总统选举的可能性现在较低。在总统乔·拜登决定退出后，政治预期的突然转变引起了加密货币投资者的担忧。他们担心，如果没有特朗普支持减少加密货币监管，哈里斯可能会实施更严格的监管，以遏制市场的快速扩张。

With this (and the betting odds) I think a lot of this perceived risk is now overpriced in the market.

有了这个（以及投注赔率），我认为很多这种感知风险现在在市场上定价过高。

Despite these concerns, I really think the long-term fundamentals remain strong. There's increasing institutional adoption through Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs plus broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies as more legitimate investment vehicles. I'm doing follow-up coverage to show the market is too bearish and too irrational here about the political effects on crypto. When the market is irrational and when the market is too bearish, that's when I think investors have the best chance to make a strong return.

尽管存在这些担忧，但我确实认为长期基本面依然强劲。比特币和以太坊 ETF 的机构采用率不断提高，加密货币作为更合法的投资工具也得到了更广泛的接受。我正在进行后续报道，以表明市场对于加密货币的政治影响过于悲观和非理性。当市场非理性、市场过于悲观的时候，我认为投资者最有机会获得丰厚的回报。