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在接受 Blockworks Macro 播客采访时,Edwards 强调,市场正处于 2021 年 11 月“完全相反的时刻”,当时美联储开始大幅加息。
Founder of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, anticipates a bullish outlook for Bitcoin BTC/USD, fueled by improving macro conditions and the impact of spot ETFs.
Capriole Investments 创始人 Charles Edwards 预计,在宏观环境改善和现货 ETF 影响的推动下,比特币 BTC/USD 前景看涨。
Edwards highlighted the market being at "the exact opposite point" of November 2021, when the Fed began aggressive rate hikes, during an interview on the Blockworks Macro podcast.
Edwards 在接受 Blockworks Macro 播客采访时强调,市场正处于 2021 年 11 月“完全相反的时刻”,当时美联储开始大幅加息。
Several bullish indicators were mentioned by Edwards, including Bitcoin’s strong correlation with measures of U.S. liquidity and gold's recent breakout to new highs. “Bitcoin tends to lag gold by a few months,” he said, indicating that Bitcoin could follow gold's upward trend.
爱德华兹提到了几个看涨指标,包括比特币与美国流动性指标的强相关性以及黄金近期突破新高。 “比特币往往落后黄金几个月,”他表示,这表明比特币可能会追随黄金的上涨趋势。
Despite Bitcoin's recent underperformance, Edwards attributes this to idiosyncratic factors such as Mt. Gox-related selling pressure, which he believes are largely over. He will be closely monitoring Fed policy shifts and normalized on-chain metrics in the coming months for market signals. He concludes, "I think the downside is, at least in the near term, pretty capped."
尽管比特币最近表现不佳,爱德华兹将其归因于一些特殊因素,例如与 Mt. Gox 相关的抛售压力,他认为这种压力已经基本结束。他将在未来几个月密切关注美联储的政策转变和标准化链上指标,以获取市场信号。他总结道:“我认为,至少在短期内,负面影响是相当有限的。”
At a recent appearance, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that future interest rate cuts would depend on economic data.
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的一次露面中表示,未来的降息将取决于经济数据。
He went on to say that the inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%, and the recent 50-basis point rate cut shows growing confidence in the goal. Regarding any future rate cuts, he said it can happen slower or faster depending on how the economy moves and reacts.
他接着表示,通胀正在可持续地回到2%,最近降息50个基点表明人们对这一目标的信心不断增强。关于未来的任何降息,他表示降息可能会更慢或更快,具体取决于经济的走势和反应。
Also Read: Bitcoin Halving Cycle Signals Potential 2024 Rally, Canaccord Analysts Predict
另请阅读:Canaccord 分析师预测,比特币减半周期预示着 2024 年的潜在反弹
Edwards remains optimistic about spot Bitcoin ETFs, comparing their potential impact to gold ETFs launched in 2004. However, he cautions that on-chain metrics have become less reliable due to the shift of Bitcoin into ETFs, stating: "I now think that’s not really so relevant because of what I’m about to talk about with ETFs."
Edwards 对现货比特币 ETF 仍然持乐观态度,并将其与 2004 年推出的黄金 ETF 的潜在影响进行比较。不过,他警告说,由于比特币转向 ETF,链上指标变得不太可靠,他表示:“我现在认为这并不真正重要。”之所以如此重要,是因为我将要谈论 ETF。”
Recent statistics show massive inflows of $20.9 billion into iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT this year, which is 98.63% of its Assets under management.
最近的统计数据显示,今年 iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT 已有 209 亿美元大量资金流入,占其管理资产的 98.63%。
Edwards anticipates that central banks will begin to hold Bitcoin alongside gold within 5-10 years. He adds, "The way that central banks hold gold today, they will at least be holding some Bitcoin."
爱德华兹预计,各国央行将在 5-10 年内开始持有比特币和黄金。他补充道,“按照当今央行持有黄金的方式,他们至少会持有一些比特币。”
The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class will be a key topic at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
比特币作为机构资产类别的影响将成为 Benzinga 即将于 11 月 19 日举行的“数字资产的未来”活动的一个关键话题。
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