|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
距离加纳最新国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 计划第三次审查结束还有不到一周时间,当局正忙着表明
Ghana's central bank will begin factoring all forex transactions among banks and between banks and their customers into the rate, a move to address the re-emergence of parallel FX exchange rates in the country.
加纳中央银行将开始将银行之间以及银行与其客户之间的所有外汇交易纳入汇率中,此举是为了解决该国重新出现的平行外汇汇率问题。
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) will factor into the rate all the forex transactions among banks and between banks & their customers (above $10,000) in Ghana. The only “improvement” in this “revamped” model, though, is that the rate will now capture transactions with a cut-off time of 3:30 pm instead of the threshold of 2 pm in the previous model.
加纳银行 (BoG) 将把加纳银行之间以及银行与其客户之间的所有外汇交易(超过 10,000 美元)纳入费率。不过,这个“改进”模型中唯一的“改进”是,该费率现在将捕获截止时间为下午 3:30 的交易,而不是之前模型中的阈值下午 2 点。
But why will the BoG try to present this less-than-revolutionary change as something epic?
但为什么 BoG 会试图将这种不那么革命性的变化呈现为史诗般的东西呢?
The underlying problem is the re-emergence of Nigeria-style “parallel” FX exchange rates in Ghana. The “weighted median” or average rate published by the BoG daily, which is close to the Bloomberg one, has diverged significantly from what real people trying to buy FX on the open market often get.
根本问题是尼日利亚式的“平行”外汇汇率在加纳重新出现。英国央行日报公布的“加权中位数”或平均汇率与彭博社公布的汇率接近,但与试图在公开市场购买外汇的真实人们经常得到的汇率存在显着差异。
For example, the BoG says the average USD-GHS selling rate for yesterday was ¢15.83. Yet, surveys by market research outlets show that forex bureaus were selling above ¢16.7. If one is lucky enough to get USD from a bank, the rate would have been at nearly ¢16. Fintech and card services providers quote above ¢17.
例如,BoG 表示,昨天美元兑 GHS 的平均卖出价为 15.83 欧元。然而,市场研究机构的调查显示,外汇局的抛售价格高于 16.7 欧元。如果有幸从银行获得美元,汇率将接近 16 英镑。金融科技和卡服务提供商的报价高于 17 欧元。
Large FX market premiums of this kind are intensely disliked by the IMF because they suggest underlying inefficiency.
国际货币基金组织非常不喜欢外汇市场的这种巨额溢价,因为这表明潜在的低效率。
The whole scheme raises a lot of questions, especially in light of all the muck surrounding the gold refinery the government is asking the BoG to invest in.
整个计划引发了很多问题,特别是考虑到政府要求央行投资的黄金精炼厂周围存在大量问题。
Promoting bullion as an investment option to stem dollar demand is a rational decision. The question, however, is scale.
推广黄金作为抑制美元需求的投资选择是一个理性的决定。然而,问题在于规模。
A lot of investors have to be convinced. Purely from a technical analysis point of view, gold has one disadvantage compared to the dollar in Ghana's specific case. Contrary to claims by some researchers that gold is a “zero beta” asset, it actually fluctuates against relevant indices by quite a lot. In short, it is risky.
许多投资者必须被说服。纯粹从技术分析的角度来看,在加纳的具体情况下,与美元相比,黄金有一个劣势。与一些研究人员声称黄金是“零贝塔”资产的说法相反,它实际上相对于相关指数的波动相当大。简而言之,这是有风险的。
The dollar on the other hand has performed very steadily against the GHS over time. Since 1994, it has always gained value. In May 2023, some lecturers at Tarkwa and Takoradi used ARIMA to forecast USD-GHS rates for 2024 and 2025 at less than ¢12.5. They got it spectacularly wrong.
另一方面,随着时间的推移,美元兑 GHS 的表现非常稳定。自1994年以来,它一直在增值。 2023 年 5 月,Tarkwa 和 Takoradi 的一些讲师使用 ARIMA 预测 2024 年和 2025 年美元兑 GHS 汇率将低于 12.5 美分。他们错得离谱。
Thus, while it looks like one can almost always count on getting both the price increase return plus the dollar return by buying gold, history actually suggests otherwise.
因此,虽然看起来人们几乎总是可以指望通过购买黄金获得价格上涨回报和美元回报,但历史实际上表明情况并非如此。
Eg: if one had bought gold in 2012 and sold it in 2015, one would have made a ~72% nominal cedi profit. But buying $ would have yielded ~140%.
例如:如果有人在 2012 年购买黄金并在 2015 年出售黄金,那么人们将获得约 72% 的名义塞地利润。但购买美元的收益率约为 140%。
There is also the issue of BoG simply displacing gold that it could otherwise have sold for USD in the international markets to cater to local investors.
还有一个问题是,央行只是简单地取代黄金,否则它本可以在国际市场上以美元出售黄金,以满足当地投资者的需求。
In some sense, therefore, the actual USD in circulation doesn't really change as the BoG has to forgo the benefits of increasing its own USD reserves and focus instead on serving local investors' appetite for a hedge against the Cedi's notorious depreciation streak.
因此,从某种意义上说,实际流通中的美元并没有真正改变,因为央行必须放弃增加自身美元储备的好处,转而专注于满足当地投资者对冲塞地臭名昭著的贬值趋势的兴趣。
If the gold coin model does scale, it is likely to cannibalise the treasury bill market more than dollar demand given the BoG's superior credit compared to the Govt of Ghana. It bears reminding readers that in the latest treasury bill auction, the undersubscription rate was more than 40%. It would be interesting to see how the govt would react if the gold coins thing caught on.
如果金币模式确实扩大规模,鉴于央行的信用优于加纳政府,它对国库券市场的蚕食可能会超过美元需求。值得提醒读者的是,在最新的国债拍卖中,认购不足率超过40%。如果金币事件流行起来,看看政府会如何反应,这将是很有趣的。
Disclaimer:info@kdj.com
The information provided is not trading advice. kdj.com does not assume any responsibility for any investments made based on the information provided in this article. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and it is highly recommended that you invest with caution after thorough research!
If you believe that the content used on this website infringes your copyright, please contact us immediately (info@kdj.com) and we will delete it promptly.
-
- 英国皇家造币厂揭晓目前流通的十大最稀有 50 便士硬币
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 这枚 50 便士硬币已成为英国最有价值、最具收藏价值的硬币,其七边形画布上出现了许多具有收藏价值的设计。
-
- BlackRock (IBIT) 比特币 ETF (BTC) 引领现货比特币 ETF 市场
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- BlackRock (IBIT) 比特币 ETF (BTC) 处于现货 BTC ETF 市场的前沿。截至9月27日,累计净流入达到214.2亿美元。
-
- Blum Crypto 为 Telegram 用户提供每日参与和赚取奖励的机会
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 本指南提供了有效参与所需的所有详细信息,从保护您的加密资产到探索应用程序中的新功能。
-
- FTX 向加密货币交易者偿还 16B 美元可能引发巨大的购买压力
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 特拉华州特区 10 月 7 日根据第 11 章作出的决定对于还款至关重要。 FTX 资金再投资于比特币和山寨币可能会推动市场增长。
-
- 随着预售的进展,预计第四季度Rollblock将飙升800%以上。这就是分析师看涨的原因。
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 丰富的娱乐选择使 Rollblock 在 $465B 的竞争行业中脱颖而出
-
- Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) 游戏推出空投并首次登陆主要加密货币交易所
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- Telegram 游戏 Hamster Kombat 终于推出了期待已久的空投,并于周四在各大加密货币交易所首次亮相。
-
- Mega Dice 预售在 FOMO 狂潮中激增——下一个 Rollbit 硬币?
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 随着预售接近尾声,投资者正在最后一刻努力确保他们的 $DICE 代币安全。
-
- Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) 价格预测:HMSTR 目标是反弹
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 截至美国东部时间晚上 10:44,《Hamster Kombat》价格在过去 24 小时内飙升 4%,交易价格为 0.006735 美元,交易量暴跌 67% 至 3.44 亿美元。
-
- Cheems:基于 Shiba Inu Doge Meme 人物的新 Meme 代币
- 2024-09-28 18:25:02
- 随着时间的推移和加密货币世界内部创新的进步,出现了一个新的竞争者,它开始受到欢迎并吸引投资者和迷因制造者。