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负资金利率和币安币(BNB)期货合约持仓量下降表明交易者的悲观情绪日益增长。负资金利率表明更多交易者正在持有空头头寸,而未平仓合约的下降表明交易者正在平仓而不开立新头寸。 MACD和DMI等技术指标也表明BNB价格存在短期下跌的可能性。
Binance Coin Faces Bearish Outlook as Funding Rate and Open Interest Signal Market Pessimism
融资利率和持仓量表明市场悲观,币安币前景看跌
Negative Funding Rate Indicates Short-Selling Dominance
负资金费率表明卖空占主导地位
The sentiment surrounding Binance Coin (BNB) has deteriorated, with key market indicators pointing towards a potential price decline. One significant indicator is the negative funding rate for BNB futures contracts. A negative funding rate implies that more traders are holding short positions, anticipating a decrease in the asset's price. On April 1st, BNB's funding rate plunged into negative territory at -0.012%, mirroring this sentiment.
围绕币安币(BNB)的情绪已经恶化,主要市场指标表明价格可能下跌。一项重要指标是 BNB 期货合约的负融资利率。负资金利率意味着更多交易者持有空头头寸,预计资产价格会下跌。 4 月 1 日,BNB 的融资利率跌至负值 -0.012%,反映了这种情绪。
Declining Open Interest Suggests Traders Exit Positions
未平仓合约下降表明交易者平仓
Further adding to the bearish narrative is the decline in open interest for BNB futures contracts. Open interest measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet been settled. A decrease in open interest indicates that traders are closing their positions without opening new ones, potentially signaling dwindling confidence in the market.
BNB 期货合约未平仓合约的下降进一步加剧了悲观情绪。未平仓合约衡量的是尚未结算的未平仓期货合约总数。未平仓合约减少表明交易者正在平仓而不开立新仓,这可能表明市场信心下降。
Understanding Funding Rates in Perpetual Futures
了解永续合约的资金费率
Funding rates play a crucial role in perpetual futures contracts by aligning the contract price with the spot price. When the contract price trades higher than the spot price, long position holders pay a fee to shorts, resulting in positive funding rates. Conversely, negative funding rates arise when the contract price falls below the spot price, indicating that short sellers are currently paying fees to longs.
资金费率通过使合约价格与现货价格保持一致,在永续期货合约中发挥着至关重要的作用。当合约价格高于现货价格时,多头头寸持有者向空头支付费用,从而产生正的资金费率。相反,当合约价格低于现货价格时,就会出现负资金利率,表明空头目前正在向多头支付费用。
Traders Close Positions as Negative Sentiment Grows
随着负面情绪的增长,交易者平仓
Amidst the growing negative sentiment, open interest is expected to fall further. This would suggest that more traders are exiting their positions and not initiating new ones, hinting at a possible price drop for BNB.
在负面情绪不断加剧的情况下,未平仓合约预计将进一步下降。这表明更多的交易者正在退出其头寸,而不是开始新的头寸,暗示 BNB 的价格可能会下跌。
Technical Indicators Reinforce Bearish Sentiment
技术指标强化看跌情绪
The bearish sentiment is not limited to the futures market. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a widely used technical indicator, is also suggesting a resurgence in selling pressure. There is an indication that the MACD line may cross below the signal line, which is typically interpreted as a bearish signal, indicating the return of sellers to the market. Notably, the MACD lines for BNB have been positioned for a downtrend since March 18th.
看跌情绪不仅限于期货市场。广泛使用的技术指标移动平均趋同分歧(MACD)也表明抛售压力再次出现。有迹象表明,MACD 线可能会穿过信号线,这通常被解释为看跌信号,表明卖家重返市场。值得注意的是,自 3 月 18 日以来,BNB 的 MACD 线一直处于下降趋势。
Potential Price Retreat for BNB
BNB 的潜在价格回落
Combining the analysis of the futures market and technical indicators, there is a likelihood of a short-term decline in BNB's price. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that market sentiment can shift rapidly, and technical indicators are not infallible predictors of future price movements.
结合期货市场和技术指标分析,BNB价格存在短期下跌的可能性。然而,重要的是要认识到市场情绪可能会迅速变化,而技术指标并不是未来价格走势的可靠预测指标。
Technical Indicators Highlight Bearish Momentum
技术指标凸显看跌势头
At the time of writing, BNB was trading at $587, showing a 6% increase over the previous 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Nevertheless, a closer examination of BNB's technical indicators on the 24-hour chart reveals an additional concerning trend.
根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据,截至撰写本文时,BNB 交易价格为 587 美元,较前 24 小时上涨 6%。然而,仔细检查 BNB 24 小时图表上的技术指标,会发现另一个令人担忧的趋势。
The Directional Movement Index (DMI), utilized to assess trend strength, has displayed a bearish crossover. This crossover occurs when the negative directional index rises above the positive directional index, suggesting that bearish momentum is currently dominating the market.
用于评估趋势强度的方向运动指数(DMI)显示出看跌交叉。当负向指数上升至正向指数上方时,就会发生这种交叉,表明看跌势头目前主导市场。
Analysts often interpret this particular crossover as a strong signal, urging traders to consider closing long positions and opening short positions. This strategic move aligns with the prevailing trend indicated by the DMI, reinforcing the notion of a prevailing bearish sentiment within the market ecosystem.
分析师经常将这种特殊的交叉解读为强烈信号,敦促交易者考虑平掉多头头寸并开立空头头寸。这一战略举措与 DMI 所表明的普遍趋势相一致,强化了市场生态系统中普遍存在的看跌情绪的概念。
Conclusion
结论
The confluence of negative funding rates, declining open interest, and bearish technical indicators suggests a potential price decline for BNB in the short term. While market sentiment can change swiftly, traders should exercise caution and consider these signals when making investment decisions.
负资金利率、未平仓合约下降和看跌技术指标的综合作用表明,BNB 短期内价格可能下跌。尽管市场情绪可能迅速变化,但交易者在做出投资决策时应谨慎行事并考虑这些信号。
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