比特币的长期持有人对最近的价格行动相对可以，短期参与者开始感受到热量

比特币最近的价格行动给特定的一组投资者带来了重大压力。长期持有人看起来比特币最近的价格动作相对好

Bitcoin’s recent price action has put significant stress on a particular group of investors. Long-term holders are looking relatively okay with Bitcoin’s recent price action, short-term participants, on the other hand, are starting to feel the heat.

比特币最近的价格行动给特定的一组投资者带来了重大压力。长期持有人看起来比特币最近的价格动作相对好，另一方面，短期参与者开始感受到热量。

Market data now suggests that this cohort may be nearing a point of capitulation, but the bigger picture reveals a more complex story where short-term holders can still hang on.

现在的市场数据表明，这个队列可能接近一个投降点，但是更大的情况揭示了一个更复杂的故事，短期持有人仍然可以坚持下去。

Short-Term Holders Face Losses But Stay Within Limits

短期持有人面临损失，但保持范围

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) have incurred realized losses of $7 billion over the past 30 days. Short-term holders are addresses who have held BTC for less than 155 days. This trend is noted through data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, which pointed out that the run of losses marks the most prolonged loss event of the current market cycle.

链上的数据表明，比特币的短期持有人（STH）在过去30天内已经实现了70亿美元的损失。短期持有人是持有BTC不到155天的地址。通过链分析平台玻璃节点的数据指出，这种趋势是指出损失的运行标志着当前市场周期中最长时间的损失事件。

In addition to realized losses, unrealized losses have intensified, pushing many STH-held coins underwater. These losses are nearing the +2σ threshold, which is a level that has historically pointed to an increased risk of capitulation.

除了实现的损失外，未实现的损失也加剧了，推动了许多STH控制的硬币。这些损失接近 +2σ阈值，这在历史上表明投降风险增加。

Image From X: Glassnode

X的图像：玻璃节

Despite the mounting capitulation risk, history shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are not in the worst position they could be in. The current figures remain well below the $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion loss spikes witnessed during the 2021–2022 crash.

尽管有越来越多的投降风险，但历史表明，短期比特币持有人并不处于最糟糕的位置。目前的数字仍低于2021 - 2022年崩溃期间见证的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失峰值。

Image From X: Glassnode

X的图像：玻璃节

Although the losses are significant, they are still aligned with patterns seen in the middle of previous corrections during bull markets. This relates to a technical outlook from crypto analyst PlanB that Bitcoin is still in the middle of its bullish run.

尽管损失很大，但它们仍然与牛市以前更正的中间情况相符。这与Crypto Analyst Planb的技术前景有关，比特币仍处于看涨的中间。

Bitcoin Bull Score Plunges, ETF Outflows Pressure Sentiment

比特币公牛得分暴跌，ETF流出压力情绪

Although Bitcoin might still be mid-cycle, sentiment indicators paint a pressured picture, with the price down by 23% from its recent all-time high in January.

尽管比特币可能仍然是中期，但情感指标绘制了压力很大的图片，其价格比1月份最近的历史最高高点下降了23％。

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s Bull Score has dropped to 20, its lowest point in two years. Major price recoveries have only taken place when the Bull Score climbs above 60. This current low reading is a sign that the crypto market is still trapped in uncertainty, where sellers are currently outpacing buyers and momentum.

来自CryptoFant的数据表明，比特币的牛得分已下降到20，这是两年来最低点。只有在公牛得分攀升至60以上时，才进行了重大的价格回收。目前的低阅读表明，加密货币市场仍被困住不确定性，卖方目前正在超过买家和势头。

Image From X: CryptoQuant

来自X的图像：加密量

A contributing factor has been the sustained capital outflow from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Since February, more than $4.4 billion has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. These outflows have added weight to an already fragile price structure after Bitcoin started correcting from its all-time high in January.

一个促成因素是比特币交易所交易资金的持续资本流出。自2月以来，超过44亿美元流出了现货比特币ETF。在比特币从一月份的历史最高点开始校正之后，这些流出就增加了已经脆弱的价格结构。

As such, short-term holders who entered close to this high and were banking on a continued upside have been exposed to most of the losses.

因此，进入这个高处并在持续上涨的短期持有人处于大部分损失方面。

Image From X: Ali_Charts

图片来自x：ali_charts

Despite the heavy outflows that defined the past few weeks, there are early signs that this trend may be turning. Data from SosoValue shows that Spot ETF behavior shifted last week, with consecutive days of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

尽管流出了过去几周的大量流出，但仍有早期迹象表明这种趋势可能正在变化。来自Sosovalue的数据表明，现场ETF行为上周发生了变化，连续数天的净流入成斑点比特币ETF。

Image From SoSoValue

来自Sosovalue的图像

Particularly, Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the week on a $744.35 million net inflow, bringing an end to five consecutive weeks of outflows. This return of institutional interest could be the first sign of stabilizing positive Bitcoin sentiment.

特别是，现货比特币ETF以7.4435亿美元的净流入结束了一周，使连续五个星期的流出结束了。机构兴趣的回报可能是稳定积极比特币情绪的第一个迹象。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $84,815.

在写作时，比特币的交易价格为84,815美元。