比特币的“稀缺放大率”将随着减半而翻倍

比特币的存量与流量（S2F）比率（衡量稀缺性的指标）预计在 2024 年 4 月即将减半后将翻一番，达到 112，超过黄金当前的 60 比率。比特币仅剩 200 万枚，且每日大量流入现货市场ETF，报告表明外汇储备可能会在九个月内耗尽，这强化了比特币作为稀缺数字资产的说法。

Bitcoin's Scarcity Intensifies: Halving to Double 'Scarcity Magnification' Ratio

比特币的稀缺性加剧：“稀缺放大”比率减半至两倍

Amidst heightened anticipation for the impending halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin's scarcity has come under scrutiny. According to a recent report, the network's Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, a measurement of scarcity, currently stands at approximately 56, comparable to gold's ratio of 60.

随着人们对 2024 年 4 月即将到来的减半事件的高度预期，比特币的稀缺性受到了密切关注。根据最近的一份报告，该网络的库存流量 (S2F) 比率（衡量稀缺性的指标）目前约为 56，与黄金的 60 比率相当。

Upon the halving, which involves a reduction in the issuance rate of new coins, Bitcoin's S2F ratio is projected to surge to 112, effectively doubling its scarcity. This surge is primarily driven by the finite supply of Bitcoin, capped at 21 million coins, and the reduction in the number of coins released into circulation after each halving.

减半后，新币的发行率会降低，比特币的 S2F 比率预计将飙升至 112，实际上使其稀缺性翻倍。这种激增主要是由于比特币的供应量有限（上限为 2100 万枚），以及每次减半后释放到流通中的硬币数量减少。

"With the halving approaching, Bitcoin's scarcity is poised to intensify, making it a more valuable and potentially desirable asset," commented James Park, a cryptocurrency analyst.

加密货币分析师 James Park 评论道：“随着减半的临近，比特币的稀缺性将会加剧，使其成为更有价值、更有吸引力的资产。”

The report also highlights the significant impact the halving is expected to have on Bitcoin reserves held in centralized exchanges. With only approximately 2 million bitcoins remaining in circulation, and assuming a daily inflow of $500 million into Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the report suggests that it would take merely nine months to deplete all exchange reserves.

该报告还强调了减半预计将对中心化交易所持有的比特币储备产生重大影响。由于流通中的比特币仅剩约 200 万枚，假设每天有 5 亿美元流入比特币现货交易所交易基金 (ETF)，报告显示，仅需 9 个月即可耗尽所有外汇储备。

"This potential depletion of exchange reserves underscores the increasing demand for Bitcoin and its growing scarcity," said Anne Marie Higgins, a financial strategist.

金融策略师安妮·玛丽·希金斯 (Anne Marie Higgins) 表示：“外汇储备的潜在枯竭凸显了对比特币的需求不断增加及其日益稀缺。”

Ben Joe, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, a cryptocurrency exchange, emphasized the broader implications of Bitcoin's halving event. "Each bitcoin halving strengthens the narrative of Bitcoin not merely as a currency but as a scarce digital asset, akin to digital gold," he said. "This upcoming halving in 2024 will elevate Bitcoin to an era of unparalleled scarcity, making it twice as rare as gold."

加密货币交易所 Bybit 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Ben Joe 强调了比特币减半事件的更广泛影响。 “每次比特币减半都会强化比特币的形象，不仅作为一种货币，而且作为一种稀缺的数字资产，类似于数字黄金，”他说。 “即将到来的 2024 年减半将使比特币进入一个无与伦比的稀缺时代，使其稀有程度是黄金的两倍。”

Despite the current market volatility and recent dip in Bitcoin's value, analysts anticipate a long-term upward trend following the halving. The reduction in supply is expected to drive demand, leading to potential price appreciation.

尽管当前市场波动且近期比特币价值下跌，但分析师预计减半后将出现长期上涨趋势。供应减少预计将推动需求，导致价格潜在上涨。

"While the halving event may bring short-term market fluctuations, the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin remains positive," said John Smith, a cryptocurrency investor. "The increasing scarcity of Bitcoin is a significant driver for its value proposition and is likely to support its growth in the future."

加密货币投资者约翰·史密斯表示：“虽然减半事件可能会带来短期市场波动，但比特币的长期轨迹仍然乐观。” “比特币的日益稀缺是其价值主张的重要驱动力，并可能支持其未来的增长。”

As Bitcoin approaches its halving, investors and analysts alike are eagerly awaiting its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. The intensification of Bitcoin's scarcity is widely anticipated to reshape the dynamics of the digital asset landscape and potentially drive significant value appreciation in the long term.

随着比特币减半的临近，投资者和分析师都在热切等待其对加密货币市场的潜在影响。人们普遍预计，比特币稀缺性的加剧将重塑数字资产格局的动态，并有可能推动长期价值的大幅升值。