比特币在牛市和熊市预测中区间波动，山寨币暴跌

继上个月创下 73,777 美元的历史新高后，比特币交易停滞在 60,000 美元区间。分析师的预测差异很大，一些人预计会出现上升趋势，另一些人则预测会出现大幅下降。以太坊近期因利好消息而出现的价格反弹并未延续到比特币，比特币今天已下跌 1.5%。山寨币投资者感到担忧，因为最近几周非前 10 名代币的市值大幅下降。比特币现货 ETF 的低迷表现和潜在的资金净流出引发了人们对价格进一步下跌的担忧，而积极的消息包括澳大利亚今年可能批准比特币现货 ETF。

Bitcoin Consolidates in Tight Range Amidst Mixed Market Sentiment

市场情绪参差不齐，比特币窄幅盘整

Since reaching an all-time high of $73,777 on November 14, 2021, Bitcoin has exhibited sluggish price action, hovering within a tight range around $60,000. In Korean won, its value has also retracted by approximately 90 million won.

自 2021 年 11 月 14 日达到 73,777 美元的历史高点以来，比特币的价格走势一直缓慢，徘徊在 60,000 美元左右的窄幅区间内。以韩元计算，其价值也缩水了约9000万韩元。

Despite its recent consolidation, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively stable trajectory, never dipping below $59,600 or exceeding $73,000 in the past month. This sideways movement has sparked a spectrum of predictions in the market.

尽管最近出现盘整，但比特币仍保持相对稳定的轨迹，过去一个月从未跌破 59,600 美元或超过 73,000 美元。这种横向走势引发了市场的一系列预测。

Bullish analysts assert that Bitcoin is nearing the conclusion of its corrective phase and poised for an upward surge. Contrarily, bears argue that the $73,777 peak marked the zenith of the bull run, with only a downward trajectory remaining.

看涨的分析师断言，比特币即将结束其调整阶段，并准备好上涨。相反，空头认为 73,777 美元的峰值标志着牛市的顶峰，仅剩下下降轨迹。

As of October 29, 2022, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin concluded trading at $63,118, representing a decline of 0.54% in the previous 24 hours. On the domestic Upbit exchange, its value stood at 90.53 million won, down 1.06% from the preceding day.

截至 2022 年 10 月 29 日，根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，比特币收盘价为 63,118 美元，过去 24 小时下跌 0.54%。在国内Upbit交易所，其价值为9053万韩元，较前一交易日下跌1.06%。

During the weekend, Bitcoin displayed muted price action, while Ethereum experienced a price rebound due to positive news regarding Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). However, Bitcoin shed approximately 1% from 7 a.m. on October 29, erasing the positive momentum exhibited by altcoins over the weekend.

周末期间，比特币价格走势温和，而以太坊则因现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的利好消息而出现价格反弹。然而，比特币从 10 月 29 日上午 7 点开始下跌约 1%，抹去了山寨币在周末表现出的积极势头。

Bitcoin's decline has been exacerbated this afternoon, falling close to 1.5% to 89.15 million won in Korean won terms. Nonetheless, unlike previous market downturns, the kimchi premium has remained subdued at 3.5%.

今天下午，比特币的跌幅进一步加剧，以韩元计算，跌幅接近 1.5%，至 8915 万韩元。尽管如此，与之前的市场低迷不同，泡菜溢价仍保持在 3.5% 的低水平。

Altcoin Valuations Plummet, Raising Concerns

山寨币估值暴跌，引发担忧

The consolidation in the top cryptocurrencies has coincided with a significant decline in the market capitalization of altcoins, also known as "Jobcoins." According to Trading View, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum from the top 10, has dwindled to $264.1 billion, down 28.05% from $367.1 billion at Bitcoin's peak on November 14.

顶级加密货币的整合恰逢山寨币（也称为“就业币”）市值大幅下降。根据 Trading View 的数据，除去前 10 名中的比特币和以太坊，山寨币的市值已降至 2641 亿美元，较 11 月 14 日比特币峰值时的 3671 亿美元下降了 28.05%。

This decline in altcoin valuations is particularly concerning, as Bitcoin's market capitalization has only decreased by 15.07% during the same period. The significant divergence in price action has amplified the apprehensions of altcoin investors.

山寨币估值的下降尤其令人担忧，因为同期比特币的市值仅下降了 15.07%。价格走势的巨大差异加剧了山寨币投资者的担忧。

Bitcoin Spot ETFs and Ethereum ETF Prospects

比特币现货ETF和以太坊ETF前景

The release of Bitcoin spot ETFs has had a profound impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. The cryptocurrency's price action has closely followed ETF inflows and outflows. However, recent data suggests a net outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs.

比特币现货ETF的发布对比特币的价格轨迹产生了深远的影响。加密货币的价格走势密切关注 ETF 的流入和流出。然而，最近的数据显示，比特币现货 ETF 出现资金净流出。

As funds previously absorbed by BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs have slowed, Grayscale's GBTC fund has remained the sole contributor to ongoing outflows. This trend raises concerns that further outflows could exacerbate Bitcoin's price decline.

由于贝莱德和富达 ETF 之前吸收的资金放缓，Grayscale 的 GBTC 基金仍然是持续资金外流的唯一贡献者。这一趋势引发了人们的担忧，即进一步的资金外流可能会加剧比特币价格下跌。

Meanwhile, Ethereum prices witnessed a modest recovery over the weekend following news that U.S. asset manager Franklin Templeton had registered an Ethereum spot ETF with the U.S. Securities Depository (DTCC). However, industry analysts remain pessimistic about the likelihood of approval in May 2023.

与此同时，在美国资产管理公司富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 向美国证券存托机构 (DTCC) 注册以太坊现货 ETF 的消息传出后，以太坊价格在周末小幅回升。然而，行业分析师对 2023 年 5 月获得批准的可能性仍持悲观态度。

Justin Sun, founder of the cryptocurrency "Tron," expressed skepticism about the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in the near term. He emphasized the need for the cryptocurrency industry to implement a long-term educational strategy to foster a better understanding among regulators.

加密货币“Tron”的创始人孙宇晨对近期以太坊现货ETF的批准表示怀疑。他强调加密货币行业需要实施长期教育战略，以促进监管机构更好的理解。

Positive News from Australia

澳大利亚传来积极消息

Amidst the mixed market sentiment, positive news emerged from Australia. Bloomberg reported on October 28 that the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) is expected to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF within the year.

在市场情绪参差不齐的情况下，澳大利亚传来了积极的消息。彭博社 10 月 28 日报道称，澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）预计将在年内批准现货比特币 ETF。

VanEck Australia branch and BetaShares Holdings have applied to launch Bitcoin spot ETFs in Australia. ASX, which handles approximately 80% of Australian stock trading, is anticipated to approve the launch of the country's first Bitcoin spot ETF by the end of 2023.

VanEck 澳大利亚分公司和 BetaShares Holdings 已申请在澳大利亚推出比特币现货 ETF。澳大利亚证券交易所负责处理澳大利亚约 80% 的股票交易，预计将在 2023 年底前批准推出该国首个比特币现货 ETF。

Justin Azaden, general manager of Beta Share's digital asset business, highlighted the success of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. as evidence of the growing demand for digital assets. Beta Share has also secured a ticker on ASX for the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs.

Beta Share 数字资产业务总经理 Justin Azaden 强调了比特币现货 ETF 在美国的成功，证明了数字资产需求不断增长。 Beta Share 还为推出比特币和以太坊 (ETH) 现货 ETF 而在澳大利亚证券交易所获得了股票代码。

On-Chain Metrics

链上指标

According to blockchain data analysis company CryptoQuant, the total amount of Bitcoin held by global virtual asset exchanges currently stands at 1,930,593, representing a 0.11% increase from the previous day.

根据区块链数据分析公司CryptoQuant的数据，目前全球虚拟资产交易所持有的比特币总量为1,930,593枚，较前一交易日增加0.11%。

The Coinbase premium, which reflects buying sentiment among U.S. investors, is currently -0.0075%. In contrast, the kimchi premium, which measures buying sentiment in the Korean market, is reported to be 4.18%, indicating a decline in buying sentiment in both regions.

反映美国投资者购买情绪的 Coinbase 溢价目前为 -0.0075%。相比之下，衡量韩国市场购买情绪的泡菜溢价据报道为 4.18%，表明这两个地区的购买情绪均下降。

Unliquidated contracts, which measure the number of contracts that have not yet closed their positions in the futures market, have dropped by 2.91% from the previous day and 0.09% from a week ago.

未平仓合约衡量的是期货市场上尚未平仓的合约数量，较前一交易日下降2.91%，较一周前下降0.09%。