比特币涨势遇到障碍？

比特币的涨势似乎遇到了障碍，从峰值下跌了 10%，引发了对其未来表现的担忧。对现货比特币 ETF 的兴趣减弱和资金大量外流给投资者带来了危险信号。摩根大通策略师表示，在 4 月份减半事件之前，股市将进一步下跌，并强调持续流入这些 ETF 的挑战。 ETF 流量下降和 CME 比特币期货兴趣稳定相结合，为加密货币的价格轨迹描绘了一幅看跌的图景。

Is Bitcoin's Rally Stalling?

比特币的涨势是否陷入停滞？

Bitcoin has taken a 10% dive from its peak, with appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs waning. JPMorgan strategists are sounding the alarm, predicting further declines ahead of the highly anticipated halving event in April.

比特币已从峰值下跌 10%，人们对现货比特币 ETF 的兴趣减弱。摩根大通策略师敲响了警钟，预测在四月份备受期待的减半事件之前，股市将进一步下跌。

ETF Flows: A Red Flag?

ETF 流量：危险信号？

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their biggest weekly outflow since their debut in January. This, coupled with sustained open interest in CME Bitcoin futures, is a bearish sign for the cryptocurrency's price. JPMorgan strategists warn that the slowdown in net inflows and the recent outflow challenge the notion of sustained one-way inflows into these ETFs.

现货比特币 ETF 正经历自 1 月份推出以来最大的周流出量。再加上芝商所比特币期货的持续未平仓合约，对加密货币的价格来说是一个看跌信号。摩根大通策略师警告称，净流入放缓和近期资金流出对持续单向流入这些 ETF 的概念提出了挑战。

Retail Enthusiasm: On the Decline?

零售热情：下降？

Despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $73,798 in March, retail traders' enthusiasm seems to be waning. Chief Investment Officer Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets observes that the rally failed to gain momentum, raising concerns about the strength of the upward trend. Aslam predicts a significant retracement below $50,000 if the halving event fails to sustain the rally.

尽管比特币在 3 月份达到了 73,798 美元的历史新高，但散户交易者的热情似乎正在减弱。 Zaye Capital Markets 首席投资官纳伊姆·阿斯拉姆 (Naeem Aslam) 指出，涨势未能获得动力，引发了人们对上涨趋势强度的担忧。 Aslam 预测，如果减半事件未能维持涨势，价格将大幅回撤至 50,000 美元以下。

JPMorgan's Forecast: $42,000 Horizon

摩根大通的预测：42,000 美元

Last month, JPMorgan predicted a price drift towards $42,000 after April, as the "Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides." The bank's strategists believe that profit-taking is likely to continue as the halving event approaches, given the still overbought positioning.

上个月，摩根大通预测，随着“比特币减半引发的兴奋消退”，4 月后价格将趋向 42,000 美元。该银行策略师认为，鉴于仍超买的定位，随着减半事件的临近，获利了结可能会继续。

ETF Success, but Grayscale Blues

ETF 成功，但灰度忧郁

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have garnered a significant $11.3 billion in net inflows to date, marking a successful debut. However, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which converted into an ETF, has seen a hefty $13.6 billion in outflows.

迄今为止，现货比特币 ETF 已获得 113 亿美元的净流入，标志着其首次成功亮相。然而，转换为 ETF 的灰度比特币信托基金 (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) 却出现了 136 亿美元的巨额资金外流。

Conclusion: A Cautionary Note

结论：警告

While spot Bitcoin ETFs have initially boosted enthusiasm, the recent outflows and declining ETF flows raise concerns about the sustainability of the rally. JPMorgan's prediction of a price decline towards $42,000 adds to the cautionary tone, suggesting that the cryptocurrency's recent gains may not be as solid as they seem.

虽然现货比特币 ETF 最初提振了人们的热情，但近期的资金外流和 ETF 流量下降引发了人们对涨势可持续性的担忧。摩根大通预测价格将跌至 42,000 美元，这增添了谨慎的基调，表明加密货币近期的涨幅可能并不像看上去那么稳固。