比特币的价格下跌了94,000美元，Altcoins效仿

这一市场趋势的背后，链上数据是否发布了牛市信号？通过分析关键指标，例如交易量，用户行为和货币分配

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has once again crossed the $94,000 mark, closely followed by gains in altcoins. Amidst this wave of market trends, has the on-chain data released any bull market signals? Analyzing key indicators such as transaction volume, user behavior, and currency distribution can help decipher the market trend from its underlying logic.

比特币（BTC）的价格再次超过了94,000美元，紧随其后的是Altcoins的收益。在这一波市场趋势中，链上数据是否发布了任何牛市信号？分析诸如交易量，用户行为和货币分布之类的关键指标可以帮助破译市场趋势的基础逻辑。

According to bitsCrunch data, over the past 24 hours, the entire network generated a total transaction volume of $39.9 billion. There were over 7.2 million transactions, with 3.03 million independent addresses participating and 13,800 tokens involved. Since July 2023, transaction volume has steadily increased from 2M to 10M, especially after April 2024, showing a rapid growth rate as market liquidity has significantly improved. Although the number of on-chain transactions decreased sharply in March this year, it has generally displayed a short-term upward trend.

根据Bortcrunch数据，在过去的24小时内，整个网络的总交易量为399亿美元。有超过720万笔交易，有303万独立的地址参与，涉及13,800个令牌。自2023年7月以来，交易量已从2M稳步增加到10m，尤其是在2024年4月之后，显示出快速增长，因为市场流动性大大提高。尽管今年3月的链上交易数量急剧减少，但通常显示出短期的上升趋势。

The trader trend chart showcases the fluctuations in the number of on-chain traders since 2023. As per bitsCrunch data, in October 2023, the trader count fell below 2M but quickly recovered to 8M in the second half of 2024, remaining at a relatively high point by January 2025. This change closely follows the “recovery-outbreak” stage of the market cycle. It’s noteworthy that the growth in the trader numbers is not linear, with each quarter showing a slight pullback (like May and August). The figure also demonstrates the periodic adjustment of institutional and retail investor sentiment due to explosive news. However, the current daily active trader count of 3.03M is still low, only one-third of the peak period, warranting further observation.

交易者趋势图显示了自2023年以来的链上交易者数量的波动。根据Bitscrunch数据，2023年10月，交易者的数量下降到2000万以下，但在2024年下半年迅速恢复到8M，保持了相对较高的高点，到了2025年1月，这一变化非常紧密地遵循“恢复爆发”阶段。值得注意的是，交易者人数的增长不是线性的，每个季度都会有轻微的回调（例如五月和八月）。该数字还表明，由于爆炸性新闻，机构和散户投资者情绪的定期调整。但是，当前的每日活跃交易者数量为303万，仍然很低，仅占峰值时期的三分之一，需要进一步观察。

Among these traders, bitsCrunch further classifies wallet addresses based on their different token holdings. Currently, there are 1,052 “Mega Whale” wallets holding assets over $100 million. While the number of retail wallets (Shrimp, <$10,000) is overwhelmingly large at around 214M, their collective amount is significantly smaller than that of giant whales. This “28 split” is a common sight in the financial markets – giant whales usually enter first to absorb funds, followed by smaller and medium funds to push up asset prices. It’s worth noting that the number of wallets at the “Dolphin” (1M-10M) and “Fish” (10K-100K) tiers also provides crucial support for market liquidity.

在这些交易者中，Bortcrunch进一步根据其不同的代币持有的钱包地址进行了分类。目前，有1,052个“大鲸”钱包持有资产超过1亿美元。虽然零售钱包的数量（虾，<10,000美元）在2.14亿左右的绝大部分大量，但它们的集体数量明显小于巨型鲸鱼。这种“ 28分”在金融市场上是一个普遍的景象 - 巨型鲸鱼通常首先输入以吸收资金，然后是较小和中型资金以推高资产价格。值得注意的是，“海豚”（1m-10m）和“ Fish”（10K-100K）层的钱包数量也为市场流动性提供了重要的支持。

As evident from the above figure, Polygon on-chain transactions remain relatively stable, with daily transactions hovering around 4K. Observing Ethereum on-chain transactions with bitsCrunch, we can see that at the beginning of 2025, Ethereum on-chain transactions decreased sharply, whereas the price reflection lagged. With the launch of more Layer1s, the reduced activity in the Ethereum ecosystem may reshape the market structure.

从上图可以明显看出，多边形交易保持相对稳定，每日交易徘徊在4K左右。观察到以太坊的链交易，并可以看到2025年初，以太坊的链交易急剧下降，而价格反射滞后。随着更多层的发射，以太坊生态系统的活动减少可能会重塑市场结构。

Although Bitcoin has returned to the 90,000s and many altcoins have shown impressive gains, on-chain transaction volume has not yet returned to a relatively active level in the current market. With the parallel development of news policies and regulations in 2025, the structure of on-chain traders has become more diversified, with whales and retail investors actively participating. Despite new hot spots and tracks, investors should pay attention to marginal changes in data and remain rational in a frenzied market. It’s crucial to track the actions of whales to avoid any short-term selling pressure that may arise from the high concentration of capital distribution.

尽管比特币已经恢复到90,000，并且许多Altcoins显示出令人印象深刻的收益，但链交易量尚未在当前市场恢复到相对活跃的水平。随着2025年新闻政策和法规的平行制定，链上交易者的结构变得更加多样化，鲸鱼和散户投资者积极参与。尽管有新的热点和轨道，但投资者仍应关注数据的边际变化，并在疯狂的市场中保持合理。追踪鲸鱼的行为至关重要，以避免由于资本分配的高度浓度可能引起的任何短期销售压力。