比特币的主流时刻：回顾 2024 年

历史将铭记 2024 年，因为比特币从利基投资转变为主流资产。美元汇率突破象征性的10万美元大关

2024 will be remembered as the year bitcoin went mainstream.

2024 年将被视为比特币成为主流的一年。

With its price breaking the symbolic $100,000 mark, and the largest financial firms in the world embracing a bitcoin strategy, the orange coin can no longer be dismissed. You can still think whatever you want about bitcoin, you just can’t ignore it.

随着其价格突破象征性的 10 万美元大关，以及世界上最大的金融公司纷纷拥抱比特币战略，橙色硬币再也不能被忽视。你仍然可以对比特币有任何想法，只是你无法忽视它。

The new year promises many exciting possibilities such as adoption at the highest levels of government, expansion of bitcoin’s use as an institutional treasury asset, an overhaul of regulation to make the U.S. more friendly to financial innovation, and geopolitical dynamics that propel bitcoin into a new era.

新的一年带来了许多令人兴奋的可能性，例如政府最高层的采用、扩大比特币作为机构财政资产的使用、监管改革以使美国对金融创新更加友好，以及推动比特币进入新的地缘政治动态。时代。

A Regulatory Turning Point

监管转折点

In January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs – a moment that will likely be viewed as a watershed in financial history.

一月份，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准了 11 只现货比特币 ETF——这一时刻可能被视为金融史上的分水岭。

For years, the SEC resisted bitcoin ETFs, citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protections. The approval marked a decisive shift in the agency’s stance, sending billions of dollars in liquidity into the market and boosting confidence in bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. Their launch was the most successful in the history of ETFs and now hold more assets under management than gold ETFs.

多年来，美国证券交易委员会一直抵制比特币 ETF，理由是担心市场操纵和投资者保护。此次批准标志着该机构立场的决定性转变，向市场注入了数十亿美元的流动性，并增强了人们对比特币作为合法资产类别的信心。它们的推出是 ETF 历史上最成功的一次，目前管理的资产比黄金 ETF 还要多。

These ETFs have provided an open door for new sources of liquidity to enter into the bitcoin markets, since certain pools of capital cannot be converted to physical bitcoin, but can purchase regulated financial products like ETFs. Perhaps even more crucially, bitcoin ETFs have normalized bitcoin as an investment. Pension funds, retirement accounts, and institutional portfolios – and the financial advisors that manage them – now have a way to achieve bitcoin exposure with the same ease as stocks, bonds, and other instruments.

这些 ETF 为新的流动性来源进入比特币市场打开了大门，因为某些资金池无法转换为实物比特币，但可以购买 ETF 等受监管的金融产品。也许更重要的是，比特币 ETF 已经将比特币标准化为一种投资。养老基金、退休账户和机构投资组合以及管理它们的财务顾问现在有办法像股票、债券和其他工具一样轻松地获得比特币敞口。

Institutional Adoption Accelerates

机构采用加速

In parallel with the ETF approval, institutional adoption of bitcoin reached new heights in 2024.

在 ETF 获得批准的同时，机构对比特币的采用在 2024 年达到了新的高度。

After months of teasing the public, BNY Mellon, America’s oldest bank, finally gained SEC approval to offer bitcoin custody services, a move signaling that even the most conservative institutions now recognize bitcoin’s staying power.

经过几个月的嘲笑公众，美国最古老的银行纽约梅隆银行终于获得了美国证券交易委员会的批准，可以提供比特币托管服务，此举表明，即使是最保守的机构现在也认识到比特币的持久力。

Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, received approval for the iShares Bitcoin Trust to offer spot bitcoin ETF options. This paved the way for more efficient price discovery, which may dampen price volatility in 2025.

与此同时，全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德 (BlackRock) 获准 iShares Bitcoin Trust 提供现货比特币 ETF 期权。这为更有效的价格发现铺平了道路，这可能会抑制 2025 年的价格波动。

Although volatility is not inherently bad, it does prevent certain types of investors from entering the market. A meaningful reduction in volatility may lead in turn to higher confidence in the asset, leading to yet more inflows, and thus more price discovery, further dampened volatility, and so on, establishing a virtuous cycle of adoption and appreciation of bitcoin as an asset class.

尽管波动性本身并不是坏事，但它确实阻止了某些类型的投资者进入市场。波动性的显着降低可能反过来会提高对该资产的信心，从而导致更多的资金流入，从而产生更多的价格发现，进一步抑制波动性等等，从而建立比特币作为一种资产类别的采用和升值的良性循环。

Corporate Pioneers Lead the Charge

企业先锋带头冲锋

Bitcoin’s mainstream moment was also catalyzed by visionary corporate leaders.

比特币的主流时刻也是由有远见的企业领导人推动的。

MicroStrategy, already renowned as a bitcoin pioneer, announced an audacious plan to raise $42 billion over three years to expand its bitcoin holdings. Since that announcement, the company has already filed additional paperwork with the SEC to issue yet more shares, to buy yet more bitcoin. Microstrategy’s treasury operations are a fascinating financial innovation that will be studied for years to come.

作为比特币先驱而闻名的 MicroStrategy 宣布了一项大胆的计划，将在三年内筹集 420 亿美元，以扩大其比特币持有量。自该公告发布以来，该公司已经向美国证券交易委员会提交了更多文件，以发行更多股票，购买更多比特币。 Microstrategy 的资金业务是一项令人着迷的金融创新，将在未来几年得到研究。

Inspired by MicroStrategy’s leadership, a handful of other companies followed suit in 2024, including Semler Scientific, Metaplanet, and others. In fact, in just the past few days, new filings with the SEC reveal several new bitcoin ETFs on the horizon:

受到 MicroStrategy 领导力的启发，其他一些公司在 2024 年也纷纷效仿，包括 Semler Scientific、Metaplanet 等。事实上，就在过去几天，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 提交的新文件显示，几款新的比特币 ETF 即将上市：

A Pro-Bitcoin Administration

支持比特币的政府

There’s no other way to say it – in one of the most contentious presidential elections in U.S. history, Americans elected a pro-bitcoin president in a landslide.

没有其他方式可以表达这一点——在美国历史上最具争议的总统选举之一中，美国人以压倒性优势选出了一位支持比特币的总统。

On his path to retake the White House, Donald Trump spoke openly of his support for bitcoin, and even delivered a historic keynote speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

在重新入主白宫的道路上，唐纳德·特朗普公开表达了他对比特币的支持，甚至在纳什维尔的比特币会议上发表了历史性的主题演讲。

Key Trump administration members have vocalized support for bitcoin, including RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Don Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy, and others. At the same time, congress is getting into the game, with U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis championing a proposal to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

特朗普政府的主要成员都表达了对比特币的支持，包括 RFK Jr.、Tulsi Gabbard、Don Jr.、Vivek Ramaswamy 等。与此同时，国会也介入其中，美国参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 支持创建战略比特币储备 (SBR) 的提议。

An SBR would position the United States as a global leader in sound money, leveraging bitcoin as both a hedge and an asset of geopolitical significance – and could even help restore separation of powers within the federal government. With the incoming administration facing significant economic challenges, it is a good thing that bitcoin is rightly viewed as a tool for meeting them.

SBR 将使美国成为稳健货币的全球领导者，利用比特币作为对冲工具和具有地缘政治意义的资产，甚至可以帮助恢复联邦政府内部的权力分立。由于即将上任的政府面临着重大的经济挑战，比特币被正确地视为应对这些挑战的工具是一件好事。

Where Will Bitcoin Go in 2025 and Beyond?

2025 年及以后比特币将走向何方？

As we approach the end of 2024, bitcoin’s market capitalization has surpassed silver and even Saudi Aramco, one of the world’s most valuable companies. With the momentary passing of the $100,000 price milestone, questions naturally arise about what the price will be a year from now.

随着 2024 年底的临近，比特币的市值已经超过白银，甚至超过沙特阿美公司，成为世界上最有价值的公司之一。随着 10 万美元价格里程碑的短暂过去，自然会出现一年后价格会是多少的问题。

The events of 2024 suggest that the momentum is far from over. Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, regulators are becoming more bitcoin-friendly, and

2024 年发生的事件表明，这一势头远未结束。机构采用继续加速，监管机构对比特币变得更加友好，并且