随着特朗普就职典礼的临近，比特币触及 109,588 美元的历史新高

比特币价格周一创下历史新高 109,588 美元，市值突破 2.16 万亿美元

Bitcoin price today: $108,300

今日比特币价格：108,300 美元

Bitcoin (BTC) price reaches a new all-time high of $109,588 on Monday after rallying 7.1% the previous week. The recent rally is fueled by Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration. The US Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) also supported the BTC’s rally, recording a net inflow of $1.86 billion the previous week. While technical analysis suggests a continuation of the ongoing rally and a target at the $1250K mark. 

比特币 (BTC) 价格继上周上涨 7.1% 后，周一创下 109,588 美元的历史新高。唐纳德·特朗普即将就职，推动了最近的涨势。美国比特币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）也支撑了比特币的上涨，上周净流入18.6亿美元。技术分析表明，当前的涨势将持续，目标为 125 万美元大关。

Bitcoin hits a new all-time high of $109,588 as Trump’s inauguration comes closer

随着特朗普就职典礼的临近，比特币触及 109,588 美元的历史新高

Bitcoin price reaches a new all-time high of $109,588 on Monday and surpasses $2.16 trillion market capitalization, according to CoinGeko. The recent rally in Bitcoin’s price is fueled by Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday. Moreover, President Trump’s celebratory victory rally speech on Sunday mentioned Bitcoin. 

据 CoinGeko 称，周一比特币价格达到 109,588 美元的历史新高，市值超过 2.16 万亿美元。唐纳德·特朗普周一就职典礼推动了近期比特币价格的上涨。此外，特朗普总统周日的庆祝胜利集会演讲中提到了比特币。

Trump's speech said, “Since the election, the stock market has surged and small business optimism has soared a record 41 points to a 39-year high. Bitcoin has shattered one record high after another.”

特朗普的讲话称，“大选以来，股市飙升，小企业乐观情绪飙升41点，创39年新高。比特币已经打破了一个又一个历史新高。”

As Donald Trump takes the Oval Office, he may take up crypto-specific legislation and change tax and spending policies that affect broader financial markets and risky assets like Bitcoin. 

随着唐纳德·特朗普入主椭圆形办公室，他可能会采取针对加密货币的立法，并改变影响更广泛的金融市场和比特币等风险资产的税收和支出政策。

Moreover, the US macroeconomic data released last week has supported this recent rally in Bitcoin price.

此外，上周公布的美国宏观经济数据支撑了比特币价格近期的上涨。

Bitcoin’s institutional demand comeback

比特币的机构需求卷土重来

Bitcoin’s institutional demand also shows signs of return. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin spot ETF data recorded a total net inflow of $1.86 billion last week, almost sixfold compared to the previous week’s inflow of $312.8 million. For Bitcoin’s price to continue its upward momentum, the magnitude of the ETF inflow must intensify.

比特币的机构需求也出现了回归迹象。根据 Coinglass 的数据，比特币现货 ETF 数据上周录得总净流入 18.6 亿美元，几乎是前一周流入 3.128 亿美元的六倍。为了让比特币价格继续保持上涨势头，ETF 的流入规模必须加大。

Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow chart. Source: Coinglass

比特币现货ETF净流入总额图表。来源：Coinglass

Bitcoin could target $145K-$249K in 2025 – CryptoQuant Report

2025 年比特币的目标可能是 14.5 万-24.9 万美元 – CryptoQuant 报告

CryptoQuant’s weekly report highlights that Bitcoin could target a price of $145K-$249k in 2025. The report explains that institutional capital flows could drive this in a favorable regulatory environment, accommodative monetary policy in the US and historical cyclical patterns.

CryptoQuant 的每周报告强调，比特币到 2025 年的目标价格可能为 14.5 万至 24.9 万美元。该报告解释说，机构资本流动可能会在有利的监管环境、美国宽松的货币政策和历史周期性模式下推动这一目标。

According to the report, about $520 billion of fresh capital could flow into Bitcoin in 2025. The chart below shows Bitcoin’s realized capitalization (purple area) since 2015. It shows how each bull cycle increases as fresh capital enters Bitcoin. 

根据该报告，到 2025 年，大约 5200 亿美元的新资本可能流入比特币。下图显示了自 2015 年以来比特币的已实现资本化（紫色区域）。它显示了随着新资本进入比特币，每个牛市周期如何增加。

It is important to note the growth in the flow of new capital (blue text in the chart). From 2018 to 2021, fresh capital flowing into Bitcoin grew by 4.5 times (or $298 billion). However, during this current cycle (end of 2022 to 2025), the growth in the flow of capital has been only $56 billion or 1.1 times, which suggests that it could witness an important amount of flows into Bitcoin during 2025. This expectation also makes sense because there are new sources of demand for Bitcoin in this cycle, such as ETFs and more companies buying Bitcoin like MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms,(...). 

值得注意的是新资本流动的增长（图表中的蓝色文本）。从 2018 年到 2021 年，流入比特币的新资本增长了 4.5 倍（即 2980 亿美元）。然而，在当前周期（2022 年底至 2025 年）内，资本流量的增长仅为 560 亿美元，即 1.1 倍，这表明 2025 年可能会出现大量资金流入比特币。这一预期也使得这是有道理的，因为在这个周期中出现了新的比特币需求来源，例如 ETF 和更多购买比特币的公司，例如 MicroStrategy、Riot Platforms，(...)。

If the change in the flow of capital into Bitcoin were to behave in this cycle (including 2025) as it did in the previous one (2019-2021), the realized cap would grow by $520 billion in 2025, says the report.

报告称，如果流入比特币的资本流量变化在这一周期（包括 2025 年）中表现得像上一周期（2019-2021 年）一样，那么到 2025 年，实现的上限将增长 5200 亿美元。

Bitcoin Realized and Market Capitalization chart. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币已实现和市值图表。来源：CryptoQuant

Additionally, the Bitcoin multiplier (violet dots in the chart below) usually stays between a lower limit of 2 and an upper limit of 6, specifically during bull markets like the current one. This indicates that for every $1 of capital that flows into Bitcoin, the total market value can increase by $2-$6.

此外，比特币乘数（下图中的紫点）通常保持在下限 2 和上限 6 之间，特别是在像当前这样的牛市期间。这表明，每流入比特币1美元的资本，总市值就可以增加2-6美元。

Bitcoin Realized Capitalization and Multiplier chart. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币已实现资本化和乘数图表。来源：CryptoQuant

Assuming that new capital flows in 2025 will total $520 billion, as mentioned in the report, and using the multiplier, it projects a target market capitalization and price for Bitcoin in 2025 as shown in the table below.

假设报告中提到的 2025 年新增资本流动总额为 5200 亿美元，并使用乘数，预计 2025 年比特币的目标市值和价格如下表所示。

Bitcoin projection for 2025 chart. Source: CryptoQuant

2025 年比特币预测图表。来源：CryptoQuant

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC bulls reach new high of $109,588

比特币价格预测：BTC多头触及109,588美元新高

Bitcoin price bounced after retesting its $90,000 support level at the start of the previous week and rallied 10.6% until Saturday. However, it faced rejection around the $106K level, declining 3.08% on Sunday and retesting its key support

比特币价格在上周初重新测试 90,000 美元的支撑位后出现反弹，直到周六为止上涨了 10.6%。然而，它在 106,000 美元附近遭遇拒绝，周日下跌 3.08%，并重新测试其关键支撑位