比特币什么时候能突破100万美元？杰夫·帕克有答案

根据 Park 的最新预测，比特币的价格有可能在 2025 年达到 100 万美元，但可能性只有 10% 左右。

According to Bitwise Asset Management’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeff Park, Bitcoin could hit $1 million in 2025, but only if the U.S. government establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve. He assigns a 10% probability to this scenario.

Bitwise 资产管理公司 Alpha 策略主管 Jeff Park 表示，比特币价格可能在 2025 年达到 100 万美元，但前提是美国政府建立比特币战略储备。他为这种情况分配了 10% 的概率。

Fresh Analysis: Breaking Down Bitcoin’s Path to Hitting $1 Million in 2025

最新分析：打破比特币 2025 年突破 100 万美元之路

In his latest analysis, Park examines the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $1 million milestone within the next presidential term. His assessment hinges on the establishment of a U.S. federal Bitcoin reserve, a concept that has gained traction in recent months.

在他的最新分析中，帕克研究了比特币在下一届总统任期内达到令人垂涎的 100 万美元里程碑的可能性。他的评估取决于美国联邦比特币储备的建立，这一概念近几个月来备受关注。

“The idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (1B BTC over 5 years) happening in 2025 is less than a 10% chance event,” Park noted in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 26, 2024. “That’s the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.”

Park 于 2024 年 12 月 26 日在 X（前 Twitter）上发帖指出：“2025 年建立联邦比特币战略储备（5 年 1B 比特币）的想法是小于 10% 的概率事件。”根据数学计算，当这种情况发生时，比特币将在 2025 年达到 1 毫米以上。”

In a separate post on X, he demonstrates his analysis of the probability for this scenario to materialize.

在 X 的另一篇文章中，他展示了他对这种情况发生的可能性的分析。

Here is a simple illustration of how probability math works–Bottom right looks most probable to me, ie. 2.5% chance.

这是概率数学如何工作的简单说明 - 右下角对我来说看起来最有可能，即。 2.5% 的机会。

pic.twitter.com/KCsqHGnFMu

After a banner year in 2023, which saw Bitcoin rally over 1,400% to set a new all-time high above $108,000, cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn in 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency began the year trading around $120,000 and has since lost over 20% of its value.

2023 年是标志性的一年，比特币上涨了 1,400% 以上，创下了 108,000 美元以上的历史新高，但加密货币市场在 2024 年经历了低迷。这一旗舰加密货币年初的交易价格约为 120,000 美元，此后已经下跌了 20% 以上。它的价值。

However, relative to its historical performance and compared to other asset classes, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience. On Friday, December 27, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $96,252 on Binance, with the price continuing to move within the same November-December consolidation range.

然而，相对于其历史表现以及与其他资产类别相比，比特币表现出了显着的弹性。 2024 年 12 月 27 日星期五，比特币在币安上的交易价格为 96,252 美元，价格继续在 11 月至 12 月的盘整区间内波动。

In my analysis, Bitcoin is currently benefiting from a compelling support zone defined by:

根据我的分析，比特币目前受益于一个引人注目的支持区域，该支持区域由以下定义：

We also can't overlook the proximity to the psychological level of $90,000, which provides additional support for the current zone. When traders return from their Christmas and New Year's break, cryptocurrency markets should see renewed volatility, and in my opinion, we're likely to see a bounce from the current, clearly established support level.

我们也不能忽视接近 90,000 美元的心理水平，这为当前区域提供了额外的支撑。当交易者从圣诞节和新年假期回来时，加密货币市场应该会出现新的波动，在我看来，我们可能会看到从当前明确建立的支撑位反弹。

What is the current target? First, the psychological $100,000 mark and the current ATH above $108,000.

目前的目标是什么？首先，100,000 美元的心理关口和当前 ATH 高于 108,000 美元。

As covered by Finbold, several institutions have provided their own 2025 Bitcoin price predictions, with varying degrees of optimism. Bitwise’s baseline scenario suggests Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, while Standard Chartered aligns with a similar projection. VanEck, on the other hand, predicts a peak of $180,000.

据 Finbold 报道，多家机构提供了自己对 2025 年比特币价格的预测，并给出了不同程度的乐观程度。 Bitwise 的基准情景表明，到 2025 年底，比特币可能达到 20 万美元，而渣打银行也有类似的预测。另一方面，VanEck 预测峰值将达到 180,000 美元。

“Following this first peak, we anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer,” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel forecasted. “However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and reclaiming previous all-time highs by the end of the year.”

VanEck 的 Matthew Sigel 预测：“在第一个峰值之后，我们预计 BTC 将出现 30% 的回撤，而随着夏季市场的整合，山寨币将面临高达 60% 的大幅跌幅。” “然而，秋季可能会出现复苏，主要代币将重新获得动力，并在年底前恢复之前的历史高点。”

The cryptocurrency market has already seen substantial institutional interest, with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $36 billion in inflows. This trend is expected to continue, potentially supporting price appreciation even without government intervention.

加密货币市场已经引起了机构的极大兴趣，现货比特币 ETF 吸引了超过 360 亿美元的资金流入。预计这一趋势将持续下去，即使没有政府干预，也可能支持价格上涨。