比特币减半：市场挑战给潜在价格上涨蒙上阴影

随着加密社区热切等待即将到来的比特币减半，Coinbase 谨慎地表示，这一时机可能会带来挑战。虽然该事件可能会成为价格上涨的催化剂，但它恰逢加密货币市场历史上的疲软时期。此外，Coinbase 指出加密货币总量有所放缓，这表明市场需要一个令人信服的故事来推动增长。

Bitcoin Halving: A Pivotal Moment Amidst Market Challenges

比特币减半：市场挑战中的关键时刻

As the cryptocurrency community anticipates the impending Bitcoin halving event, industry experts weigh the potential impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory. While the halving has historically been associated with significant price surges, Coinbase, a renowned cryptocurrency exchange, cautions against over-optimism due to prevailing market conditions.

随着加密货币社区预计比特币减半事件即将到来，行业专家正在权衡比特币价格轨迹的潜在影响。虽然历史上减半与价格大幅上涨有关，但著名的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 警告不要因当前市场状况而过度乐观。

In a recent market commentary report, Coinbase emphasizes the need for the crypto market to establish a compelling narrative to sustain price growth. The report notes that the Bitcoin halving, anticipated around April 20 or 21, could serve as a catalyst for higher prices, but it faces the challenge of historically weak performance during this time of year for crypto markets and other risk assets.

在最近的一份市场评论报告中，Coinbase 强调加密货币市场需要建立一个令人信服的叙述来维持价格增长。该报告指出，预计 4 月 20 日或 21 日左右的比特币减半可能会成为价格上涨的催化剂，但加密市场和其他风险资产在每年的这个时候面临着历史上表现疲软的挑战。

Data from Brave New Coin indicates that Bitcoin has historically experienced an average monthly return of only 2.7% from June to September since 2011, significantly lower than the 19.3% average return observed in other months. Coinbase further observes a slowdown in overall crypto volumes, suggesting a market lacking a compelling growth driver. Total crypto volumes declined by 33.25% over the past day to $61.78 billion, as per CoinMarketCap data.

Brave New Coin的数据显示，自2011年以来，比特币历史上6月至9月的平均月回报率仅为2.7%，明显低于其他月份19.3%的平均回报率。 Coinbase 进一步观察到加密货币总量放缓，表明市场缺乏令人信服的增长动力。根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，加密货币总交易量在过去一天下降了 33.25% 至 617.8 亿美元。

Despite these challenges, Coinbase identifies the potential for an influx of new investors into the crypto market, driven by Bitcoin's growing reputation as a digital store of value. This could expand the investor base and enhance Bitcoin's dominance, which currently stands at 50.6% of the total crypto market capitalization, according to CoinStats.

尽管面临这些挑战，Coinbase 仍然意识到，在比特币作为数字价值储存手段的声誉不断提高的推动下，新投资者涌入加密货币市场的潜力巨大。根据 CoinStats 的数据，这可能会扩大投资者基础并增强比特币的主导地位，目前比特币占加密货币总市值的 50.6%。

Coinbase also suggests that investors may be more likely to aggressively buy up future market dips than in previous cycles, owing to the enlarged investor base and ongoing market volatility. Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been precursors to major price increases. Following the last halving in May 2020, Bitcoin's value surged from $8,787 to nearly $69,000 by November 2021.

Coinbase 还表明，由于投资者基础扩大和市场持续波动，投资者可能比之前的周期更有可能在未来市场逢低时积极买入。从历史上看，比特币减半事件一直是价格大幅上涨的先兆。继 2020 年 5 月最后一次减半之后，到 2021 年 11 月，比特币的价值从 8,787 美元飙升至近 69,000 美元。

In significant legal developments, Coinbase secured a victory on April 6 when the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled in its favor. The court held that Coinbase's secondary sales of cryptocurrencies did not violate the Securities Exchange Act. This ruling represents a major win for Coinbase and strengthens its defense against allegations of selling unregistered securities and violating securities laws.

在重大法律进展中，Coinbase 于 4 月 6 日取得了胜利，美国第二巡回上诉法院做出了对其有利的裁决。法院认为，Coinbase二次销售加密货币的行为并未违反《证券交易法》。这一裁决代表了 Coinbase 的重大胜利，并加强了其对出售未注册证券和违反证券法指控的辩护。