比特币恐惧和贪婪指数最近有所下降：这对比特币的价格意味着什么

数据显示，比特币投资者情绪已跌至10月中旬以来的最低水平。这对 BTC 的价格可能意味着什么。

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has seen a sharp decline recently, dropping from a value of 73 yesterday to 65 today. This indicates that the sentiment shared by the majority of the investors has shifted from extreme greed to simply greed.

比特币恐惧与贪婪指数近期大幅下跌，从昨天的 73 跌至今天的 65。这表明大多数投资者的情绪已经从极度贪婪转向纯粹贪婪。

The index takes into account the data of five factors in order to calculate its value: volatility, trading volume, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends.

该指数考虑了五个因素的数据来计算其价值：波动性、交易量、市值主导地位、社交媒体情绪和谷歌趋势。

When the value of the index is greater than 53, it means the sentiment shared by the majority of the investors is that of greed. On the other hand, it being under 47 implies fear is dominant in the sector. Naturally, the indicator being between these two cutoffs suggests a net neutral mentality.

当该指数值大于53时，表明大多数投资者的情绪是贪婪的。另一方面，低于 47 意味着该行业的恐惧情绪占主导地位。当然，介于这两个临界点之间的指标表明了一种净中性心态。

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index 2021

2021 年比特币恐惧与贪婪指数

The worsening in the sentiment is likely due to the price decline that BTC has been going through lately. For most of this month, the indicator has actually been showing the market to be holding a sentiment of extreme greed, which is defined as the index being at 75 or higher.

情绪恶化可能是由于比特币最近价格下跌所致。在本月的大部分时间里，该指标实际上一直显示市场持有极度贪婪的情绪，这种情绪被定义为该指数处于 75 或更高。

Historically, Bitcoin has actually tended to move in the direction opposite to what the crowd is expecting, with the probability of such a contrary move occurring only growing the more the investors become sure about a side.

从历史上看，比特币实际上往往朝着与大众预期相反的方向发展，随着投资者对一方的确定性越强，发生这种相反走势的可能性只会增加。

Extreme greed is a territory where tops have often occurred for the BTC price as this likelihood is the strongest there. There is a similar region for the fear side as well, called extreme fear and occurring at 25 or lower.

极度贪婪是比特币价格经常出现顶部的区域，因为这种可能性是最强的。恐惧方面也有一个类似的区域，称为极度恐惧，发生在 25 或更低。

With the Bitcoin sentiment seeing a notable decline recently, the asset’s price may no longer be at risk of seeing another major correction. The sentiment is still that of greed, however, so another rally may also not be too likely to happen.

随着比特币情绪最近显着下降，该资产的价格可能不再面临再次大幅回调的风险。然而，市场情绪仍然是贪婪的，因此再次反弹的可能性也不太可能发生。