比特币减半后激增，Coinbase 对市场现实发出警告

Is Bitcoin Poised for a Post-Halving Surge?

比特币是否准备好迎接减半后的飙升？

All eyes are on the upcoming Bitcoin halving in mid-April 2024, an event that will halve the rewards miners receive for validating transactions. Historically, these halvings have been seen as potential catalysts for price appreciation.

所有的目光都集中在 2024 年 4 月中旬即将到来的比特币减半上，这一事件将使矿工验证交易获得的奖励减半。从历史上看，减半被视为价格上涨的潜在催化剂。

Coinbase's Cautious Outlook

Coinbase 的谨慎前景

While Coinbase acknowledges the potential for the halving to positively impact Bitcoin's performance, it also notes the limited historical evidence supporting this correlation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is subject to external factors beyond crypto-specific events like halvings.

虽然 Coinbase 承认减半可能对比特币的表现产生积极影响，但它也指出支持这种相关性的历史证据有限。此外，比特币的价格还受到除减半等特定加密事件之外的外部因素的影响。

Macroeconomic Headwinds

宏观经济逆风

Coinbase highlights several macroeconomic factors that could significantly influence Bitcoin prices. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and reduction in quantitative tightening could provide support. However, the handbook also raises concerns about potential selling pressure from miners and companies emerging from bankruptcy.

Coinbase 强调了几个可能显着影响比特币价格的宏观经济因素。美联储降息和减少量化紧缩的预期可能会提供支撑。然而，该手册也引发了人们对矿商和刚刚破产的公司潜在抛售压力的担忧。

On-Chain Analytics: A Familiar Pattern

链上分析：熟悉的模式

Coinbase's analysis of on-chain data suggests that the current market cycle resembles the period from 2018 to 2022, during which Bitcoin experienced a significant rally. Notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has remained relatively stable, indicating a decreased likelihood of sell-offs.

Coinbase 对链上数据的分析表明，当前的市场周期类似于 2018 年至 2022 年期间，比特币在此期间经历了大幅上涨。值得注意的是，长期投资者持有的比特币供应量保持相对稳定，表明抛售的可能性有所下降。

Long-Term Holders: A Restraining Force

长期持有者：一种限制力量

Assuming other factors remain constant, Coinbase believes that long-term holders are less likely to sell their Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving. This suggests that the market strength typically associated with halvings may be tempered by the reluctance of these investors to cash in.

假设其他因素保持不变，Coinbase 认为长期持有者不太可能因预期减半而出售比特币。这表明，通常与减半相关的市场强势可能会因这些投资者不愿兑现而受到削弱。

Conclusion: A Cautious Optimism

结论：谨慎乐观

While the upcoming halving presents a potential opportunity for Bitcoin's price to rise, Coinbase advises investors to exercise caution. The limited historical evidence, external macroeconomic factors, and potential selling pressure from miners and bankrupt companies warrant a measured approach. Nonetheless, the on-chain data and the potential for long-term holders to act as a stabilizing force provide some reason for optimism.

虽然即将到来的减半为比特币价格带来了潜在的上涨机会，但 Coinbase 建议投资者谨慎行事。有限的历史证据、外部宏观经济因素以及来自矿商和破产公司的潜在抛售压力需要采取谨慎的态度。尽管如此，链上数据和长期持有者作为稳定力量的潜力提供了一些乐观的理由。