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近年来,链上数据显示,加密货币交易所持有的比特币(BTC)数量不断减少,达到六年来的最低点。这一趋势表明流动性供应减少以及机构和零售采用增加,可能导致价格上涨。外汇储备的下降和比特币 ETF 的上涨改变了市场动态,表明比特币未来表现和价格轨迹的乐观前景。
Bitcoin's Exodus from Exchanges: A Bullish Sign for the Crypto Market
比特币从交易所撤离:加密市场的看涨信号
In a remarkable departure from recent years, data from on-chain analytics platforms has revealed a significant decline in the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) held on cryptocurrency exchanges. This trend has reached a six-year low, with exchange reserves plummeting to 1,945,051 BTC as of April 2, 2024, according to CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Exchange Reserve dashboard.
与近年来不同的是,来自链上分析平台的数据显示,加密货币交易所持有的比特币(BTC)数量大幅下降。根据 CryptoQuant 的比特币交易储备仪表板,这一趋势已达到六年来的最低点,截至 2024 年 4 月 2 日,交易储备暴跌至 1,945,051 BTC。
This precipitous drop reflects a staggering decline of 90,700 BTC (approximately $6.2 billion) in just the past month, a testament to the growing preference among investors to hold their Bitcoin in personal wallets. The trend has persisted since November 2022, following the disastrous bank run on FTX, which exposed rampant fraud and triggered a mass exodus of crypto holders to self-custodial solutions.
这种急剧下降反映了过去一个月内惊人的 90,700 BTC(约合 62 亿美元)的下跌,这证明了投资者越来越倾向于将比特币保存在个人钱包中。自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 发生灾难性银行挤兑事件以来,这一趋势一直持续存在,这场挤兑暴露了猖獗的欺诈行为,并引发加密货币持有者大规模转向自我托管解决方案。
Despite these recent outflows, Glassnode's data indicates that a substantial amount of Bitcoin, approximately 2.31 million BTC, remains on exchanges. However, the overall trend is unmistakable: exchange balances have declined steadily, with current levels hitting their lowest point since April 2018.
尽管最近有这些资金外流,但 Glassnode 的数据表明,仍有大量比特币(约 231 万比特币)留在交易所。然而,总体趋势是明确无误的:外汇余额稳步下降,目前水平触及 2018 年 4 月以来的最低点。
This shift away from exchanges is viewed as a bullish sign by market analysts, as it suggests a shrinking liquid supply of BTC on the network. Reduced supply, coupled with increased demand, often leads to higher prices. In fact, the price of Bitcoin has already surged by over 50% since the start of the year, reaching $67,499.
市场分析师将这种远离交易所的转变视为看涨信号,因为这表明网络上比特币的流动性供应正在减少。供应减少,加上需求增加,往往会导致价格上涨。事实上,自今年年初以来,比特币的价格已飙升超过 50%,达到 67,499 美元。
The impact of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market is also evident in the diminishing supply of Bitcoin on over-the-counter (OTC) desks. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have attracted an influx of $12 billion since January 11, have emerged as a primary source of OTC demand. These ETFs currently hold over 827,000 BTC, exerting significant influence on the global spot market.
比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)对市场的影响也体现在场外交易(OTC)平台上比特币供应的减少。自 1 月 11 日以来,美国比特币现货 ETF 已吸引了 120 亿美元的流入,已成为场外交易需求的主要来源。这些ETF目前持有超过827,000枚BTC,对全球现货市场产生重大影响。
Some analysts speculate that the advent of these ETFs could disrupt traditional Bitcoin exchanges like Coinbase, as investors gravitate towards ETFs for their ease of access and regulatory compliance.
一些分析师推测,这些 ETF 的出现可能会扰乱 Coinbase 等传统比特币交易所,因为投资者因其易于访问和遵守监管规定而倾向于 ETF。
Examining the distribution of Bitcoin holdings by exchange, Binance reigns supreme with the largest trove at 538,750 BTC. Bitfinex, Coinbase, and Gemini follow suit with 372,000 BTC, 292,000 BTC, and 133,000 BTC, respectively. This distribution mirrors the overarching trend of dwindling exchange balances, underscoring the shift towards storing Bitcoin in personal wallets and alternative off-exchange storage methods.
从交易所的比特币持有量分布来看,币安以 538,750 BTC 的数量位居榜首。 Bitfinex、Coinbase 和 Gemini 紧随其后,分别出售 372,000 BTC、292,000 BTC 和 133,000 BTC。这种分布反映了外汇余额减少的总体趋势,强调了将比特币存储在个人钱包和其他场外存储方法中的转变。
The confluence of declining exchange reserves, institutional adoption, and retail investors holding more Bitcoin in anticipation of ETFs and the halving event paints a promising picture for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
外汇储备下降、机构采用以及散户投资者因预期 ETF 持有更多比特币以及减半事件的综合作用,为比特币的价格轨迹描绘了一幅充满希望的图景。
In sum, the flight of Bitcoin from exchanges, fueled by the surge in Bitcoin ETFs and the preference for self-custody, signals a positive trend for the cryptocurrency market. The diminishing liquid supply of Bitcoin on exchanges suggests a potential increase in demand and higher prices. The dominance of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and the dwindling supply of Bitcoin on OTC desks are reshaping the dynamics of Bitcoin trading and investment. These developments are widely regarded by market analysts as bullish indicators for Bitcoin's future performance and price trajectory.
总而言之,在比特币 ETF 激增和自我托管偏好的推动下,比特币从交易所逃离,标志着加密货币市场的积极趋势。交易所比特币流动性供应的减少表明需求可能会增加,价格也会上涨。美国比特币现货 ETF 的主导地位以及场外交易柜台上比特币供应的减少正在重塑比特币交易和投资的动态。这些发展被市场分析师广泛视为比特币未来表现和价格轨迹的看涨指标。
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