比特币难题：加密之王是否已经触顶或飙升至新高度？

加密货币专家对于比特币本周期的峰值存在不同意见。资深交易员 Peter Brandt 表示，根据“指数衰减”趋势，该股可能已达到 7.2 万美元的峰值。然而，另一位专家认为，BTC 还有很长的路要走，预计在牛市结束前可能达到 21 万美元。

The Great Bitcoin Debate: Has the Digital Gold Peaked or Is There More Upside?

比特币大辩论：数字黄金已经见顶还是还有更多上涨空间？

The global cryptocurrency community is currently embroiled in a heated debate regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading digital asset. As Bitcoin continues to shatter all-time highs, market analysts and experts are divided in their opinions on whether the flagship cryptocurrency has reached its peak for the current cycle or if it still has ample room to grow.

目前，全球加密货币社区正卷入关于全球领先数字资产比特币（BTC）未来发展轨迹的激烈争论。随着比特币继续打破历史高点，市场分析师和专家对于这种旗舰加密货币是否已达到当前周期的峰值或是否仍有足够的增长空间存在分歧。

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, renowned for his uncanny ability to predict market movements, has recently expressed his belief that Bitcoin may have already topped out at around the $72,000 level. Brandt bases his analysis on the concept of "exponential decay," a historical trend he has observed in Bitcoin's bull market cycles. According to this theory, the peak price of each successive Bitcoin cycle is typically only about 20% of the previous cycle's peak gain. Brandt argues that this pattern has held true for the past three Bitcoin market cycles, and if it continues to hold, the current cycle's peak should be around $72,723. This figure is remarkably close to Bitcoin's recent all-time high of $73,737, which it reached in March of this year.

以其不可思议的市场走势预测能力而闻名的资深交易员 Peter Brandt 最近表示，他相信比特币可能已经在 72,000 美元左右见顶。布兰特的分析基于“指数衰减”的概念，这是他在比特币牛市周期中观察到的历史趋势。根据这一理论，每个连续的比特币周期的峰值价格通常仅为前一个周期峰值收益的 20% 左右。 Brandt 认为，这种模式在过去三个比特币市场周期中都是成立的，如果继续保持下去，当前周期的峰值应该在 72,723 美元左右。这个数字非常接近比特币今年 3 月创下的历史新高 73,737 美元。

However, Brandt's exponential decay theory has been met with skepticism from other industry experts. Giovanni Santostasi, a former physics professor and cryptocurrency analyst, has proposed an alternative perspective using his own "Bitcoin Power Law" model. This model assumes that Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory follows a "power law" relationship with time, similar to the laws that govern physical phenomena. Santostasi argues that Brandt's exponential decay theory is based on insufficient data and that his own model predicts a much higher peak for Bitcoin in the current cycle.

然而，勃兰特的指数衰减理论遭到了其他行业专家的怀疑。前物理学教授兼加密货币分析师乔瓦尼·桑托斯塔西 (Giovanni Santostasi) 使用自己的“比特币幂律”模型提出了另一种观点。该模型假设比特币的长期价格轨迹与时间遵循“幂律”关系，类似于支配物理现象的定律。桑托斯塔西认为，布兰特的指数衰减理论基于不充分的数据，他自己的模型预测比特币在当前周期中会出现更高的峰值。

Santostasi's Bitcoin Power Law model forecasts that BTC will peak at around $210,000 in the fourth cycle, which is expected to end in December 2025. This would represent a significant increase from the current all-time high price. Santostasi also acknowledges that Bitcoin's price could experience corrections along the way, but he believes that the long-term trend remains bullish.

Santostasi 的比特币幂律模型预测，BTC 在第四个周期中将达到 21 万美元左右的峰值，预计将于 2025 年 12 月结束。这将比当前的历史最高价格大幅上涨。桑托斯塔西还承认，比特币的价格可能会经历调整，但他认为长期趋势仍然看涨。

The debate surrounding Bitcoin's price trajectory is likely to continue as the cryptocurrency market evolves. While there is no definitive answer, the contrasting perspectives of Brandt and Santostasi highlight the complexities of market analysis and the uncertainties that exist in the world of digital assets. As Bitcoin continues to make headlines and attract mainstream attention, investors and traders will need to carefully consider these different viewpoints and make their own informed decisions about the future prospects of the digital gold.

随着加密货币市场的发展，围绕比特币价格轨迹的争论可能会继续下去。虽然没有明确的答案，但布兰特和桑托斯塔西的截然不同的观点凸显了市场分析的复杂性以及数字资产世界中存在的不确定性。随着比特币继续成为头条新闻并吸引主流关注，投资者和交易者将需要仔细考虑这些不同的观点，并对数字黄金的未来前景做出明智的决定。