比特币 Coinbase 溢价指数在过去一个月暴跌，这对 BTC 价格意味着什么

正如一位分析师在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中所解释的那样，BTC Coinbase 溢价指数最近急剧下跌至负值区域。

Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has plunged to two-year lows in recent weeks. Here’s what this could mean for BTC’s price.

数据显示，比特币 Coinbase 溢价指数近几周已跌至两年低点。这对 BTC 的价格可能意味着什么。

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Has Plummeted Over The Past Month

比特币 Coinbase 溢价指数在过去一个月暴跌

As highlighted by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC Coinbase Premium Index has seen a sharp drawdown into negative territory over the past month. The “Coinbase Premium Index” here refers to an indicator that tracks the difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair).

正如一位分析师在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中强调的那样，BTC Coinbase 溢价指数在过去一个月急剧下跌至负值区域。这里的“Coinbase溢价指数”是指追踪Coinbase（美元对）和Binance（USDT对）上列出的比特币价格差异的指标。

This metric's value can provide insight into the contrasting buying and selling behavior patterns of investors present on the two cryptocurrency exchange behemoths. To be more precise, the indicator showcases how the activities of American institutional investors (the dominant force on Coinbase) differ from those of global whales.

该指标的值可以深入了解投资者在这两个加密货币交易巨头上的不同买卖行为模式。更准确地说，该指标展示了美国机构投资者（Coinbase 上的主导力量）的活动与全球鲸鱼的活动有何不同。

When the Coinbase Premium Index has a positive value, it signifies that the asset is trading at a higher rate on Coinbase as compared to Binance. Such a trend suggests that US-based whales are participating in a higher amount of buying (or lower amount of selling) as compared to global investors.

当 Coinbase 溢价指数为正值时，表示该资产在 Coinbase 上的交易价格高于币安。这种趋势表明，与全球投资者相比，美国鲸鱼参与的买入量更高（或卖出量更少）。

On the other hand, values below zero indicate that Binance users are buying at a higher rate, as the coin is priced higher on the exchange.

另一方面，低于零的值表明币安用户正在以更高的价格购买，因为代币在交易所的定价更高。

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index over the past year:

现在，下面的图表显示了过去一年比特币 Coinbase 溢价指数的趋势：

As can be seen from the chart above, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index was in positive territory during the cryptocurrency's ascent to new highs in the last two months of 2024. The pattern observed throughout the year was that the American institutional investors played a leading role in the market, with shifts in buying and selling pressure from them being reflected in the asset's price.

从上图可以看出，比特币 Coinbase 溢价指数在 2024 年最后两个月攀升至新高的过程中处于正值区域。全年观察到的模式是，美国机构投资者在比特币市场中发挥了主导作用。市场的买入和卖出压力的变化反映在资产的价格中。

However, in mid-December, the indicator began to dip into negative territory and has remained there since. BTC's spot value has also continued to decrease during this time, indicating that Coinbase whales are still playing a primary role in the market.

然而，从 12 月中旬开始，该指标开始跌入负值，并一直维持在该水平。 BTC的现货价值在此期间也持续下跌，表明Coinbase鲸鱼仍然在市场中扮演着主要角色。

With the latest decrease, the Coinbase Premium Index has now dropped below its lowest point in October. In fact, the indicator is currently at its lowest value since November 2022, over two years ago.

随着最新的下跌，Coinbase 溢价指数现已跌破 10 月份的最低点。事实上，该指标目前处于两年多前 2022 年 11 月以来的最低值。

Considering that the Coinbase whales have been largely responsible for Bitcoin's direction in the past year, the indicator remaining in a downtrend could bode poorly for the cryptocurrency's price.

考虑到 Coinbase 鲸鱼在过去一年中对比特币的方向负有主要责任，该指标仍处于下降趋势可能对加密货币的价格来说不是好兆头。

However, historically, the asset has tended to bottom out when selling pressure on Coinbase has become too strong, as new buyers eventually emerge to buy coins at a cheaper rate from the sellers. The sharp negative spike around the FTX crash also marked a major bottom for BTC.

然而，从历史上看，当 Coinbase 的抛售压力过大时，该资产往往会触底，因为新买家最终会以更便宜的价格从卖家那里购买代币。 FTX 崩盘周围的急剧负面飙升也标志着 BTC 的重大底部。

It now remains to be seen whether the FUD from the US-based investors has reached a high enough level for a bottom to be formed.

现在，美国投资者的 FUD 是否已达到足够高的水平以形成底部仍有待观察。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin has started the new year on a positive note, with its price recovering to the $96,600 level.

比特币以积极的势头开始了新的一年，其价格回升至 96,600 美元的水平。