ETF 需求和减半事件推动比特币飙升 80,600 美元

技术分析师预测，在没有卖出信号的情况下，比特币将上涨 15%，而灰度的比特币信托基金因赎回增加而面临潜在短缺，可能会危及其市场主导地位。

Bitcoin Sets Its Sights on $80,600 Amidst Bullish Surge and Growing ETF Appetite

在牛市激增和 ETF 需求不断增长的情况下，比特币将目标定在 80,600 美元

Financial analysts are projecting an optimistic trajectory for Bitcoin, predicting a potential 15% upswing in value with no immediate signs of a sell-off. This bullish outlook coincides with the growing demand for Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the impending halving event.

金融分析师预测比特币的发展轨迹乐观，预计其价值可能上涨 15%，且不会立即出现抛售迹象。这种看涨前景恰逢对基于比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求不断增长以及即将到来的减半事件。

According to market research firm Markets Insider, technical analysts have identified Bitcoin's previous peak of around $73,700 as the next short-term resistance level. Should Bitcoin surpass this level, it is poised to reach a measured move price target of $80,600, representing a significant 15% increase from current levels.

据市场研究公司 Markets Insider 称，技术分析师已将比特币之前的峰值 73,700 美元左右视为下一个短期阻力位。如果比特币超过这一水平，其预计价格目标将达到 80,600 美元，较当前水平大幅上涨 15%。

On March 26, Bitcoin exhibited a marginal gain of 0.71%, reaching $70,388 in afternoon trading. This surge has solidified its market capitalization at nearly $1.4 trillion. The cryptocurrency's impressive 66% growth this year is largely attributed to the robust demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs and anticipation surrounding the halving event scheduled for next month.

3 月 26 日下午，比特币小幅上涨 0.71%，达到 70,388 美元。这一飙升使其市值巩固在近 1.4 万亿美元。这种加密货币今年令人印象深刻的 66% 增长主要归功于对现货比特币 ETF 的强劲需求以及对下个月减半事件的预期。

Technical analysts are heartened by Bitcoin's resilience during its recent dip, successfully testing and bouncing off its $64,900 support level. Analyst Tom Stockton interprets this as a bullish indication, suggesting that the pullback has matured into a positive short-term development.

技术分析师对比特币在近期下跌期间的韧性感到鼓舞，成功测试并从 64,900 美元的支撑位反弹。分析师汤姆斯托克顿将此解释为看涨迹象，表明回调已成熟为积极的短期发展。

Stockton further notes the positive status of the weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator and the weekly stochastic indicator, which exceeds 80%, indicative of bullish market sentiment. These technical tools are employed by analysts to assess the underlying momentum of a financial instrument.

斯托克顿进一步指出，每周MACD（移动平均收敛分歧）指标和每周随机指标的积极状态超过80%，表明市场情绪看涨。分析师使用这些技术工具来评估金融工具的潜在动力。

Maintaining a long-term bullish stance, Stockton asserts that no technical indicators currently signal a sell-off. "Our long-term indicators point higher with no 'sell' signals, indicating that the uptrend is likely to persist for the next several months," he opines.

斯托克顿保持长期看涨立场，断言目前没有技术指标表明抛售。他表示：“我们的长期指标走高，没有‘卖出’信号，这表明上升趋势可能会在未来几个月持续下去。”

Grayscale Faces Bitcoin Shortage as Redemptions Surge, BlackRock Prepares to Take the Lead

随着赎回激增，灰度面临比特币短缺，贝莱德准备带头

Despite Bitcoin's overall bullish outlook, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is facing a potential shortage of Bitcoin amid a surge in redemptions. According to blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, GBTC, which holds over 347,000 bitcoins valued at approximately $24.6 billion, is estimated to deplete its reserves within 14 weeks.

尽管比特币的整体前景看好，但灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）在赎回激增的情况下面临着比特币潜在短缺的问题。根据区块链分析公司 Arkham Intelligence 的数据，GBTC 持有超过 347,000 枚比特币，价值约 246 亿美元，预计将在 14 周内耗尽其储备。

Arkham Intelligence reports that Grayscale commenced the year with more than 618,000 bitcoins held in GBTC. However, clients have been redeeming their shares at an unprecedented rate, primarily due to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

Arkham Intelligence 报告称，今年年初，Grayscale 在 GBTC 中持有超过 618,000 枚比特币。然而，客户一直在以前所未有的速度赎回他们的股票，这主要是由于美国推出了现货比特币 ETF。

Following regulatory approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January, numerous spot Bitcoin ETFs have entered the market, offering investors alternative options to GBTC. These newer products have attracted significant interest, leading to outflows from GBTC.

继 1 月份获得美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 监管机构批准后，众多现货比特币 ETF 已进入市场，为投资者提供了 GBTC 之外的替代选择。这些较新的产品引起了人们的极大兴趣，导致 GBTC 资金流出。

DL News highlights that GBTC is facing competition from nine spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched two months ago. "Rival funds run by Wall Street heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity have challenged the crypto native firm by offering lower fees," the news outlet reports. GBTC charges a management fee of 1.5%, while competitors such as BlackRock offer fees as low as 0.25%.

DL News 强调，GBTC 面临着两个月前推出的 9 只现货比特币 ETF 的竞争。该新闻媒体报道称，“贝莱德和富达等华尔街重量级公司运营的竞争对手基金通过提供更低的费用来挑战这家加密货币本土公司。” GBTC 收取 1.5% 的管理费，而贝莱德等竞争对手的管理费低至 0.25%。

Despite the current wave of redemptions, some analysts believe that Grayscale's ETF fortunes may soon improve. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that the recent outflows are largely driven by bankruptcies rather than declining investor interest. "The worst is probably close to being over," Balchunas predicts. "Once it is, only retail (investment) will be left and flows should look more like the February trickle."

尽管目前出现了赎回浪潮，但一些分析师认为灰度的 ETF 命运可能很快就会改善。彭博 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 表示，最近的资金外流主要是由破产推动的，而不是投资者兴趣下降。 “最糟糕的情况可能即将结束，”巴尔丘纳斯预测。 “一旦实现，将只剩下零售（投资），资金流应该更像二月的涓流。”

Furthermore, crypto analysts anticipate that BlackRock's competitor ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), will surpass Grayscale in Bitcoin holdings within two weeks. "BlackRock is going to flip Grayscale soon," declares crypto YouTuber George Tung. "I say within the next two weeks, it's going to happen." IBIT currently holds more than 238,500 bitcoins.

此外，加密货币分析师预计，贝莱德的竞争对手 ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 将在两周内超过 Grayscale 的比特币持有量。 “贝莱德很快就会颠覆灰度”，YouTube 加密货币用户 George Tung 宣称。 “我说在接下来的两周内，这将会发生。” IBIT 目前持有超过 238,500 枚比特币。

As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, technical analysts remain optimistic about its prospects, predicting further upward momentum with no imminent signs of a sell-off. However, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust faces a potential Bitcoin shortage in the near future, potentially weakening its market dominance as rival ETFs gain traction.

随着比特币市场的不断发展，技术分析师对其前景仍持乐观态度，预测比特币将进一步上涨，且不会出现抛售迹象。然而，灰度比特币信托在不久的将来面临着潜在的比特币短缺，随着竞争对手 ETF 的吸引力增加，可能会削弱其市场主导地位。