在特朗普的“不太严重”关税计划之后，比特币[BTC]超过了8.8万美元

周一，在唐纳德·特朗普总统定于4月2日制定的“不太严重”关税计划之后，比特币[BTC]超过了8.8万美元。

President Donald Trump's less severe tariff plans, which are scheduled for April 2nd, saw Bitcoin [BTC] top $88K on Monday.

总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）计划于4月2日制定的严重关税计划，周一将比特币[BTC]最高$ 88K。

Initially, most macro analysts from QCP Capital and Coinbase had warned of potential downside risks in case of renewed tariff troubles in early Q2.

最初，QCP Capital和Coinbase的大多数宏观分析师都警告说，如果第2季度早期出现重新关税问题，潜在的下行风险。

As a result, the relief BTC rally after last week's Fed meeting was further extended to $88K. However, analysts were still divided on the BTC's potential recovery above $90K.

结果，上周的美联储会议后的救济BTC集会进一步延长至8.8万美元。但是，分析师仍然对BTC的潜在回收率超过$ 90k的股份有所分歧。

Mixed Bitcoin projections

混合比特币预测

Some bullish analysts cited technical charts and structural shifts, suggesting that BTC could reclaim $90K and an all-time high (ATH).

一些看涨的分析师引用了技术图表和结构性变化，这表明BTC可以收回$ 90K和历史最高水平（ATH）。

In fact, Bob Loukas, a trader and analyst, noted that bulls were in control and the rally could last 15 weeks, citing historical and structural shifts on price charts. He stated,

实际上，交易员和分析师鲍勃·卢卡斯（Bob Loukas）指出，公牛在控制权，持续15周，理由是价格图表的历史和结构性变化。他说，

"No real excuses left now for the bulls, the Cycle count is on their side. (Week 3) …If the bull market is in control we could move mostly up for 15 weeks."

“现在没有真正的借口，公牛队的周期人数就在他们身边。（第3周）……如果牛市处于控制状态，我们可以大部分时间持续15周。”

Source: X

来源：X

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX exchange, also chimed in with a similar bullish outlook but credited the Fed's shift from QT (quantitative tightening) to QE (quantitative easing) as a key catalyst. He noted that BTC could tap $110K and zoom to $250K before retesting recent lows at $76K.

Bitmex Exchange的创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）也以类似的看涨前景融合在一起，但认为美联储从QT（定量拧紧）转变为QE（定量宽松）作为关键催化剂。他指出，BTC可以将$ 110K敲击并放大至25万美元，然后重新测试最近的低点，价格为$ 76K。

However, others were cautious or projected range-bound price action for a while. On his part, BTC trader, Cryp Nuevo, expected another dip to the $80K area, citing a likely liquidity-driven hunt for stop losses below $83K.

但是，其他人在一段时间内一直处于谨慎或预计的范围内价格行动。 BTC交易员Cryp Nuevo在他的角度预计，这一款项可能会降至80,000美元，理由是可能以流动性驱动的狩猎量低于8.3万美元。

Pseudonymous Glassnode researcher, VizArt, cautioned that an ATH would be a "pipe dream" without reclaiming $90K-$93K. He stated,

Vizart的化名玻璃节研究人员警告说，ATH将是一个“白日梦”，而无需收回$ 90k- $ 93K。他说，

"Most recent investors, who bought during Nov 2024 to Feb 2025, have a cost basis between $90k-$93k. Any bounce into this zone is likely to face selling pressure from those seeking to exit at break-even. Without reclaiming this supply zone, a new ATH remains a pipe dream."

“最近在2024年11月至2025年2月购买的最新投资者的成本基础在90,000万美元至93,000美元之间。进入该区域的任何弹跳都可能面临着那些寻求退出破产的人的销售压力。如果不收回该供应区，新的Ath仍然是一个白日梦。”

According to Bitfinex analysts, BTC could be stuck in a range-bound price action due to reduced speculative interest and activity, citing Bitcoin’s hot supply. They stated,

根据Bitfinex分析师的说法，由于投机性兴趣和活动的减少，BTC可能会陷入范围内的价格行动，理由是比特币的热供应。他们说，

"A contraction in the Hot Supply metric—from 5.9 percent in December 2024 to 2.8 percent today—underscores the cooling of speculative participation."

“热供应指标的收缩 - 从2024年12月的5.9％到今天的2.8％，毫无疑问投机参与。”

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Per Bitfinex analysts, a sustained BTC recovery could only be feasible if there was macro clarity and renewed ETF inflows.

每个BitFinex分析师，只有在具有宏观清晰度和ETF流入后，持续的BTC恢复才是可行的。

The spot BTC ETFs saw a $744M inflow last week, breaking the 5-week outflow streak. But, it remained to be seen how BTC price would react to Trump's April tariffs.

BTC ETF上周的流入率达到了7.44亿美元，打破了5周的流出连胜。但是，仍然有待观察到BTC价格会对特朗普四月的关税做出反应。