尽管资本流入放缓，比特币（BTC）已实现上限仍创下新高

根据 Glassnode 的市场洞察，比特币的已实现上限已达到创纪录的 8320 亿美元。这一增长速度继续以每月 386 亿美元的惊人速度增长

Bitcoin’s realized cap has hit a new all-time high despite the market seeing slower capital inflows in recent times.

尽管最近市场资本流入放缓，但比特币的实际上限已创下历史新高。

According to market insights from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s realized cap has reached a record $832 billion. This growth continues at an impressive rate of $38.6 billion monthly, even as the asset experiences slower capital inflows since surpassing $100,000.

根据 Glassnode 的市场洞察，比特币的实现上限已达到创纪录的 8320 亿美元。尽管该资产自超过 100,000 美元以来资本流入速度放缓，但这种增长仍以每月 386 亿美元的惊人速度持续增长。

However, these slower capital inflows persist despite the remarkable performance from the ETF market in recent times. Between Jan. 8 and 14, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of $1.21 billion over four consecutive days.

然而，尽管 ETF 市场近期表现出色，但资本流入速度仍然放缓。 1 月 8 日至 14 日期间，比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 连续四天流出 12.1 亿美元。

This trend reversed on Jan. 15, with the Bitcoin ETF market seeing inflows totaling $3.26 billion. Notably, Jan. 17 alone saw daily inflows exceeding $1 billion, marking the largest single-day inflow for the year so far.

这一趋势在 1 月 15 日发生逆转，比特币 ETF 市场资金流入总额达 32.6 亿美元。值得注意的是，仅 1 月 17 日一天的资金流入就超过 10 亿美元，创下今年迄今为止最大的单日流入量。

Moreover, the CryptoQuant Fund Premium reflects this bullish trend. The metric, which tracks demand for investment products like funds and trusts, has increased to 0.1026.

此外，CryptoQuant 基金溢价反映了这种看涨趋势。该指标追踪基金和信托等投资产品的需求，已增至 0.1026。

On the other hand, Glassnode also confirmed that the market's sell-side pressure has significantly decreased.

另一方面，Glassnode也证实市场卖方压力已明显减轻。

In particular, net realized profit-taking dropped from $4.5 billion in December 2024 to $316.7 million — a 93% reduction, showing that the market is moving toward a healthier supply-demand balance.

特别是，已实现的净获利回吐从 2024 年 12 月的 45 亿美元下降至 3.167 亿美元，下降了 93%，表明市场正在走向更健康的供需平衡。

However, according to Glassnode, despite a combined 65% crash in realized profit and loss from $4 billion to $1.4 billion, the metric remains elevated historically. This suggests consistent day-to-day demand for Bitcoin is absorbing the ongoing capital flows.

然而，根据 Glassnode 的数据，尽管已实现损益从 40 亿美元猛跌 65% 至 14 亿美元，但该指标仍处于历史高位。这表明对比特币的持续日常需求正在吸收持续的资本流动。

To further confirm this trend, the CryptoQuant Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator stands at 0.6, indicating that many investors hold substantial unrealized profits. For context, this aligns with the “Belief” phase in market cycles.

为了进一步证实这一趋势，CryptoQuant净未实现损益（NUPL）指标为0.6，表明许多投资者持有大量未实现利润。就背景而言，这与市场周期中的“信念”阶段一致。

Amid these conditions, market watchers remain bullish on Bitcoin.

在这种情况下，市场观察人士仍然看好比特币。

Analyst Darkfost recently reported a massive shift in investor sentiment on Binance.

分析师 Darkfost 最近报告称，投资者对币安的情绪发生了巨大转变。

After a brief period of sell-offs linked to a lack of crypto mentions during Donald Trump’s inauguration, net taker volume on Binance turned negative, reflecting pessimism.

在唐纳德·特朗普就职期间缺乏加密货币提及导致短暂抛售之后，币安网的净接受量变为负值，反映出悲观情绪。

However, just before the U.S. markets opened, net taker volume flipped back to positive. Darkfost believes that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could soon surpass its all-time high.

然而，就在美国市场开盘前，净接受量转回正值。 Darkfost 认为，如果这种趋势持续下去，比特币可能很快就会突破历史新高。

Further, CryptoBatman noted that Bitcoin’s current position on the Days-to-Halving Heatmap suggests the market is far from a cycle top.

此外，CryptoBatman 指出，比特币目前在减半热图上的位置表明市场距离周期顶部还很远。

Typically, Bitcoin’s largest price rallies occur when it is furthest from the next halving, a pattern shown in red and orange zones on the heatmap.

通常，比特币最大的价格上涨发生在距离下一次减半最远的时候，这种模式在热图上的红色和橙色区域中显示。

With plenty of upside potential remaining, CryptoBatman believes Bitcoin will likely record massive gains in the coming months.

由于仍有大量的上涨潜力，CryptoBatman 相信比特币可能会在未来几个月内录得巨大涨幅。

Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe predicts a market cycle reminiscent of 2017. He anticipates the market to achieve valuations comparable to the Dot-com bubble, estimating a total market cap of $15 to $25 trillion.

与此同时，Michaël van de Poppe 预测市场周期会让人想起 2017 年。他预计市场将实现与互联网泡沫相当的估值，估计总市值为 15 至 25 万亿美元。

For Bitcoin specifically, he forecasts a price exceeding $300,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades for $104,304, up 0.62% in the last 24 hours.

特别是对于比特币，他预测价格将超过 30 万美元。目前，比特币交易价格为 104,304 美元，过去 24 小时内上涨 0.62%。