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比特币(BTC)于3月2日上涨了10%的回收率至95,000美元以上,然后形成双顶图案模式约为94,200美元
Bitcoin (BTC) price slid further on March 2 after failing to sustain above the key psychological threshold of $90,000.
比特币(BTC)的价格在3月2日不超过90,000美元的关键心理门槛后进一步滑行。
As institutional investors appear to be reducing their holdings in cryptocurrency markets and macroeconomic uncertainties loom, analysts are now assessing what’s next for Bitcoin and its price action in 2024.
随着机构投资者似乎正在减少其在加密货币市场和宏观经济不确定性的持股范围内,分析师现在正在评估比特币的下一步及其在2024年的价格行动。
Bitcoin price drops below $90,000 amid ETF outflows and macro woes
在ETF流出和宏观困境中,比特币价格下跌$ 90,000
Bitcoin price slid nearly 10% to reach lows of around $81,400 on March 1 after forming a double-top chart pattern.
在形成双顶图案后,比特币价格在3月1日达到$ 81,400的低点近10%。
A double-top formation occurs when an asset reaches a peak price on at least two occasions, setting up a potential reversal. In Bitcoin’s case, the crypto hit a high of $94,200 before evening out to form a double-top pattern around the daily chart.
当资产至少两次达到峰值价格时,会发生双顶形成。在比特币的情况下,加密货币在晚上售价为94,200美元,在每日图表周围形成双顶图案。
BTC/USD, 1-day chart, double top. Source: TradingView
BTC/USD,为期1天的图表,双顶。资料来源:TradingView
Key factors that may be contributing to Bitcoin’s recent slump include the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) still reporting outflows, and broader macroeconomic worries, said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.
Bitget Research的首席分析师Ryan Lee说,可能导致比特币最近低迷的关键因素包括仍报告流出的美国现货比特币交换基金(ETF),以及更广泛的宏观经济忧虑。
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs are now seeing their fourth consecutive week of net negative outflows after reporting over $2.6 billion in cumulative net outflows during the last week of February, Sosovalue data shows.
Sosovalue数据显示,美国现货比特币ETF现在在2月的最后一周报告了超过26亿美元的累积净流出后,连续第四周看到他们的净负流出。
Bitcoin ETF net flows, weekly chart. Source: Sosovalue
比特币ETF净流,每周图表。资料来源:Sosovalue
“The remarkable bull run in the first quarter of 2024, which saw Bitcoin rally more than 70% from its 2024 low, is likely coming to an end due to several key factors,” said Lee.
李说:“ 2024年第一季度的出色公牛奔跑,比特币从2024年的低点拉起了70%以上,这可能会由于几个关键因素而结束。”
“Firstly, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which played a crucial role in fueling Bitcoin’s rally, are now seeing their fourth consecutive week of net negative outflows. According to Sosovalue, the ETFs reported over $2.6 billion in cumulative net outflows during the last week of February.”
“首先,在加油比特币集会中发挥了至关重要的作用,美国现场比特币ETF现在连续第四周看到他们的净负面流出。根据Sosovalue的说法,ETF在2月的最后一周报告了超过26亿美元的累积净流出。”
According to Lee, the Bitcoin ETFs had a record-high inflow of over $10 billion in January and February. However, the inflows have now reversed, which could factor into Bitcoin’s price action moving forward.
根据李的说法,比特币ETF在一月和2月的创纪录的100亿美元超过100亿美元。但是,流入现在已经逆转了,这可能导致比特币的价格动作向前发展。
The crypto market is also still recovering from the $1.4 billion Bybit hack, which occurred on February 21. The hack was the largest in crypto history.
加密货币市场也仍在2月21日发生的14亿美元乘式黑客袭击中恢复过来。该黑客是加密历史上最大的。
Greater macroeconomic worries may also be impacting Bitcoin’s price, with rolling 12-month US consumer price index (CPI) inflation remaining elevated at 3.7% in January, higher than the 3% in December.
更大的宏观经济忧虑也可能会影响比特币的价格,而1月份的12个月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)的通货膨胀率仍高于3.7%,高于12月的3%。
Despite the slight deceleration in the rate of price increases, the sticky inflation is still a concern for the Federal Reserve, which may keep interest rates higher for longer.
尽管价格率略有下降,但粘性通货膨胀仍然是美联储的关注点,这可能会使利率更长。
Furthermore, the US is planning to impose tariffs on goods from Vietnam in an effort to deter Vietnam from serving as a route for goods subject to tariffs from China to enter the US.
此外,美国正计划对越南的商品征收关税,以阻止越南作为从中国征收关税的商品途径进入美国的途径。
The tariffs on Vietnamese goods are set to take effect on March 26, and they will apply to a range of products, including bicycles, furniture, and vinyl flooring.
越南商品的关税将于3月26日生效,它们将适用于一系列产品,包括自行车,家具和乙烯基地板。
The tariffs are part of a broader trade dispute between the US and Vietnam. The US has accused Vietnam of engaging in unfair trade practices, such as undervaluing its currency and setting up trade barriers against US companies.
关税是美国和越南之间更广泛的贸易争端的一部分。美国指责越南从事不公平的贸易做法,例如低估了其货币并建立针对美国公司的贸易障碍。
Vietnam has denied these accusations and maintains that its trade practices are in accordance with international law.
越南否认了这些指控,并坚持认为其贸易惯例符合国际法。
Finally, the Chinese government has recently announced plans to phase out the production and use of single-use plastic bags by the end of 2025.
最后,中国政府最近宣布了计划在2025年底之前逐步淘汰单利塑料袋的生产和使用。
The move is part of China’s broader efforts to reduce pollution and promote environmental sustainability.
此举是中国为减少污染和促进环境可持续性的广泛努力的一部分。
China is one of the world’s worst plastic polluters. Every year, the country produces millions of tons of plastic waste, much of which ends up in landfills or in the ocean.
中国是世界上最糟糕的塑料污染者之一。每年,该国都会产生数百万吨的塑料废物,其中大部分最终落在垃圾填埋场或海洋中。
The Chinese government has been taking steps to reduce plastic pollution in recent years. In 2020, the government banned the use of disposable plastic chopsticks in food delivery services.
近年来,中国政府一直在采取措施减少塑料污染。 2020年,政府禁止在食品送货服务中使用一次性塑料筷子。
The new initiative to phase out single-use plastic bags is a significant escalation of these efforts. It is also a key part of China’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
淘汰一次性塑料袋的新计划是这些努力的重大升级。到2060年,它也是中国实现碳中立性的关键部分。
Institutions may be reducing their crypto investments
机构可能正在减少其加密货币投资
Institutions may be reducing their investments in cryptocurrency markets amid the recent downturn and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
在最近的低迷和更广泛的宏观经济逆风的情况下,机构可能正在减少其对加密货币市场的投资。
According to Soken, which tracks institutional capital flows in cryptocurrencies, major institutional investors have pulled out a staggering $2.6 billion from US Bitcoin ETFs alone in the last four weeks.
根据追踪加密货币机构资本流动的Soken的说法,在过去的四个星期中,主要的机构投资者仅从美国比特币ETF中获得了惊人的26亿美元。
According to Soken data, the total net outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs in the last week of February were an astounding $2.56 billion.
根据Soken数据,2月最后一周,美国比特币ETF的净流出总计25.6亿美元。
Bitcoin ETF net flows, weekly chart. Source: Sosovalue
比特币ETF净流,每周图表。资料来源:Sosovalue
This marks the fourth consecutive week of outflows from these products, suggesting a potential shift in institutional sentiment.
这标志着这些产品连续第四周流出,这表明机构情绪可能发生了可能的转变。
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