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在价格大幅调整 10% 之后,比特币市场已反弹至 63,000 美元的水平,试图夺回关键的短期持有者 (STH) 成本基础。
Bitcoin price attempts to reclaim a critical cost basis after rebounding from a 10% price correction. The market recovered following one of the steepest one-day sell-offs since the 2022 cycle bottom, despite lower weekend trading volumes.
比特币价格在从 10% 的价格调整中反弹后,试图恢复关键的成本基础。尽管周末交易量较低,但市场在经历 2022 年周期底部以来最严重的单日抛售之一后有所复苏。
Bitcoin Price Recovers a Key Cost Basis
比特币价格恢复关键成本基础
After a significant price correction, the Bitcoin market has rebounded to the $63,000 level. This recovery comes after one of the deepest one-day sell-offs since the 2022 cycle bottom, highlighting the market’s resilience despite lighter weekend trading volumes.
经过大幅价格调整后,比特币市场已反弹至 63,000 美元的水平。此次复苏是在自 2022 年周期底部以来最严重的单日抛售之一之后出现的,凸显了尽管周末交易量较轻,但市场的弹性。
However, Bitcoin price has managed to rebound from the key support level at $60,000, attempting to reclaim the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $62,500. This cost basis serves as a critical support/resistance level, indicating the average price at which short-term traders acquired their BTC holdings.
然而,比特币价格已成功从 60,000 美元的关键支撑位反弹,试图收回 62,500 美元的短期持有者 (STH) 成本基础。该成本基础是关键的支撑/阻力位,表明短期交易者购买其持有的 BTC 的平均价格。
As highlighted by Glassnode, the spot price has now crossed above the STH cost basis. This metric captures the cost basis for traders who have held their Bitcoin for less than 150 days on average.
正如 Glassnode 所强调的那样,现货价格现已突破 STH 成本基础。该指标反映了平均持有比特币时间少于 150 天的交易者的成本基础。
A failure to maintain this level could put recent buyers under pressure, especially given the challenging conditions of the past few months.
如果无法维持这一水平,可能会给最近的买家带来压力,特别是考虑到过去几个月的充满挑战的情况。
Macro Outlook, Key Cost Basis Levels
宏观展望、关键成本基础水平
On a broader scale, the True Cryptocurrency Market Mean ($47,000) and the Active Investor Price ($52,500) provide insights into the average cost basis for active investors. The spot price has remained above these levels for most of the year, suggesting a robust market with strong demand support during drawdowns.
在更广泛的范围内,真实加密货币市场平均值(47,000 美元)和活跃投资者价格(52,500 美元)提供了对活跃投资者平均成本基础的深入了解。今年大部分时间现货价格都保持在这些水平之上,表明市场强劲,在回撤期间需求支撑强劲。
The Unspent Transaction Output Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric further indicates that small price fluctuations can significantly impact investor profitability, given the large cluster of coins at the current price level.
未花费交易输出已实现价格分布(URPD)指标进一步表明,考虑到当前价格水平的大量代币,较小的价格波动可能会严重影响投资者的盈利能力。
Futures Speculation, Market Volatility
期货投机、市场波动
Despite a reduction in long-biased speculation, the futures market shows signs of increasing speculative interest. The directional premium has recently exceeded its +1σ band, indicating a potential return of speculative activity.
尽管多头投机减少,但期货市场显示出投机兴趣增加的迹象。定向溢价最近超过了+1σ区间,表明投机活动可能卷土重来。
A substantial $2.5 billion in futures open interest was closed during the recent rally, suggesting a flushing out of short sellers. However, the market remains susceptible to heightened volatility, which could lead to significant price swings due to deleveraging pressures and liquidations.
在最近的上涨过程中,大量 25 亿美元的期货未平仓合约被平仓,这表明卖空者被淘汰。然而,市场仍然容易受到波动加剧的影响,这可能会因去杠杆化压力和清算而导致价格大幅波动。
The Bitcoin market’s near-term future hinges on maintaining the STH cost basis. While Short-Term Holders have shown strength, the increasing speculation in futures markets points to potential volatility ahead.
比特币市场的近期未来取决于维持 STH 成本基础。尽管短期持有者表现出了实力,但期货市场投机活动的增加预示着未来潜在的波动。
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