2025 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：随着经济的转变，牛市还是熊市会占上风？

在市场情绪波动和宏观经济变化的情况下，比特币（BTC）仍然是投资者的焦点。美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 最近发布的非农就业数据为 2025 年 BTC 的走势增添了新的复杂性，暗示领先的加密货币可能面临经济阻力。

Bitcoin (BTC) price action remains a point of interest as the year unfolds, especially in the context of varying market sentiment and macroeconomic shifts. The latest nonfarm payrolls data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adds another layer of complexity to BTC’s trajectory in 2025, hinting at potential economic headwinds for the leading cryptocurrency.

随着今年的展开，比特币（BTC）的价格走势仍然是人们关注的焦点，特别是在市场情绪变化和宏观经济变化的背景下。美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 的最新非农就业数据为 2025 年 BTC 的走势增添了另一层复杂性，暗示领先的加密货币可能面临经济阻力。

Turbulent Price Movements Shake Market Confidence

价格波动剧烈动摇市场信心

Currently trading above $94,000, Bitcoin has seen a turbulent price performance, showing a 3.45% loss over the past seven days. Despite this dip, market sentiment seems to be bullish, largely driven by ongoing institutional interest, even as retail investors show signs of weakness.

目前比特币交易价格高于 94,000 美元，价格表现动荡，过去 7 天下跌 3.45%。尽管出现这种下跌，但市场情绪似乎看涨，这主要是由持续的机构兴趣推动的，尽管散户投资者表现出疲软的迹象。

Employment Data Signals Economic Strength

就业数据表明经济实力

On December 10, analysts at The Kobeissi Letter unpacked the latest employment situation summary for December 2024. The BLS reported a strong increase of 256,000 nonfarm payroll jobs—a figure that exceeded expectations by 100,000. This surge highlights the resilience of the US economy, averaging a job gain of 165,000 per month since July, which marks the highest six-month average since July 2024.

12 月 10 日，《Kobeissi Letter》分析师公布了 2024 年 12 月最新就业形势摘要。劳工统计局报告称，非农就业岗位强劲增加 256,000 个，这一数字超出预期 100,000 个。这一激增凸显了美国经济的韧性，自 7 月以来平均每月新增就业 165,000 个，这是自 2024 年 7 月以来的最高六个月平均水平。

This unexpected job growth puts a damper on speculations about a near-term pivot by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Higher employment rates tend to correlate with concerns over inflation, prompting central banks to either maintain or increase interest rates—a development that could create unfavorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin.

这种意外的就业增长抑制了有关美联储近期转向降息的猜测。较高的就业率往往与对通胀的担忧相关，促使央行维持或提高利率——这一发展可能会给比特币等风险资产创造不利条件。

Institutions Show Confidence with BTC Accumulation

机构对比特币积累表现出信心

While macroeconomic indicators might suggest potential challenges, institutional investors are showing strong interest in Bitcoin by accumulating the asset. This trend signals a belief in BTC’s long-term value proposition despite near-term volatility.

尽管宏观经济指标可能表明潜在的挑战，但机构投资者通过积累资产对比特币表现出浓厚的兴趣。尽管近期波动较大，但这一趋势表明人们对 BTC 的长期价值主张抱有信心。

The ongoing divergence between institutional enthusiasm and retail investor hesitation reflects the uncertainty in the market, with investors considering both macroeconomic pressures and the asset’s historical resilience.

机构热情与散户投资者犹豫之间的持续分歧反映了市场的不确定性，投资者同时考虑宏观经济压力和资产的历史弹性。

Mixed Signals Create Investor Dilemmas

混合信号造成投资者困境

The interplay between robust employment data and persistent institutional interest presents mixed signals for Bitcoin’s future. Investors are navigating a landscape shaped by economic resilience and concerns over central bank policy.

强劲的就业数据和持续的机构兴趣之间的相互作用为比特币的未来带来了复杂的信号。投资者正在应对由经济弹性和对央行政策担忧所塑造的格局。

As Bitcoin’s price faces pressure from both market dynamics and economic indicators, its role as a hedge or high-risk asset continues to evolve in 2025. In the unfolding macroeconomic landscape, Bitcoin’s resilience will be tested against shifting investor expectations and global financial conditions.

由于比特币的价格面临来自市场动态和经济指标的压力，其作为对冲或高风险资产的作用将在2025年继续演变。在不断变化的宏观经济格局中，比特币的弹性将受到投资者预期变化和全球金融状况的考验。