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比特币今天上涨 4.5%,消除了过去两天的抛售。这是一个不错的举动,但让它又回到了过去八年的水平
Bitcoin rose sharply on Monday, erasing losses from the previous two sessions, but the gains were limited as the world's largest cryptocurrency remained within a tight trading range.
比特币周一大幅上涨,抹去了前两个交易日的跌幅,但由于全球最大的加密货币仍处于狭窄的交易区间内,涨幅有限。
Bitcoin was up 4.5% at $47,233.4 by 21:14 ET (0114 GMT). It fell as low as $44,000 on Friday.
截至东部时间 21:14(格林尼治标准时间 0114),比特币上涨 4.5%,至 47,233.4 美元。周五跌至 44,000 美元。
The gains came despite bitcoin derivatives markets showing a rise in bearish bets. The ratio of puts, or bearish bets, to calls, or bullish bets, rose to 0.86 on Monday, from 0.7 at the end of last week.
尽管比特币衍生品市场的看跌押注有所增加,但比特币还是出现了上涨。看跌期权(即看跌押注)与看涨期权(即看涨押注)的比率从上周末的 0.7 升至周一的 0.86。
Bitcoin has traded within a range of $44,000 to $50,000 for the past eight months. It hit a record high of $69,000 in November last year.
过去八个月,比特币的交易价格在 44,000 美元至 50,000 美元之间。去年11月创下了69,000美元的历史新高。
Among other digital assets, ether rose 3.5% to $3,438.6 and dogecoin gained 1.2% to $0.15.
其他数字资产中,以太币上涨 3.5%,至 3,438.6 美元,狗狗币上涨 1.2%,至 0.15 美元。
Coming up: Keep an eye on Microstrategy
即将推出:密切关注微观策略
One stock that's getting a lot of attention today is Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR). It's one of the easiest companies in the world to value. The reason? A whopping 97% of its assets are bitcoin.
今天备受关注的一只股票是 Microstrategy (纳斯达克股票代码:MSTR)。它是世界上最容易估值的公司之一。原因是什么?高达 97% 的资产是比特币。
And yet, shares of MSTR are hitting all-time highs today, up more than 12%.
然而,MSTR 的股价今天创下历史新高,上涨超过 12%。
That's a big disconnect between the value of the company's bitcoin holdings and the company itself. Shares are now trading at 2.5 times the value of its bitcoin holdings, which is non-sensical and matches the highs from Feb 2021 -- a time when markets were euphoric.
该公司持有的比特币价值与公司本身之间存在巨大脱节。目前,该股的交易价格是其持有的比特币价值的 2.5 倍,这是荒谬的,而且与 2021 年 2 月市场欣欣向荣的时期的高点相符。
According to CoinDesk, MSTR's bitcoin holdings were valued at $15.1 billion and its market cap was $37.14 billion yesterday before including today's massive rally.
根据 CoinDesk 的数据,昨天 MSTR 持有的比特币价值为 151 亿美元,在包括今天的大幅上涨之前,其市值为 371.4 亿美元。
Something is amiss here. I suspect a fund that could be long bitcoin and short MSTR is puking out the position. One firm, Kerrisdale Capital, has publicized that strategy in the past:
这里有些不对劲。我怀疑一只可能做多比特币并做空 MSTR 的基金正在吐仓。 Kerrisdale Capital 公司过去曾公开过这一策略:
Now I doubt that firm is big enough to move the market so much but the strategy looks like such low-hanging fruit that others were surely drawn in as well.
现在我怀疑这家公司是否足够大,足以对市场产生如此大的影响,但该策略看起来像是唾手可得的成果,其他人肯定也会被吸引。
If bitcoin was breaking out, I would expect that premium to expand, but it's only up 4.5% today and still a ways from $70K. Maybe the MSTR market is front-running a breakout? It's possible, but something is off here and it has my attention.
如果比特币突破,我预计溢价会扩大,但今天仅上涨 4.5%,距离 7 万美元还有很长的路要走。或许MSTR市场正在抢先突破?有可能,但这里有些不对劲,引起了我的注意。
I don't think it's the time to short MSTR right now because that chart is really breaking out, but at some point that premium to NAV needs to narrow and I don't think that's far off. In the meantime, watch how far this squeeze runs and it potentially becomes a meme.
我认为现在不是做空 MSTR 的时候,因为该图表确实正在突破,但在某些时候,相对于资产净值的溢价需要缩小,我认为这已经不远了。与此同时,看看这种挤压能持续多久,它有可能成为一个模因。
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