比特币 (BTC) 价格本月可能触及 11 万美元，但 Raoul Paul 警告称将出现重大调整

特朗普总统就职后，美国财政部将达到36万亿美元的债务上限。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，这将需要暂停两个月的债务发行。

The U.S. Treasury will hit its $36 trillion debt limit after President Trump’s inauguration. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, this will necessitate a two-month debt issuance suspension. This suspension could affect the global liquidity of Bitcoin and other global markets.

特朗普总统就职后，美国财政部将达到36万亿美元的债务上限。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，这将需要暂停两个月的债务发行。此次暂停可能会影响比特币和其他全球市场的全球流动性。

On January 17, the U.S. Treasury Secretary wrote to congressional leadership reminding them of the debt ceiling. The official letter notified Congress that the extended limit on the debt ceiling, effected on January 2, will be reached between January 14 and January 23.

1月17日，美国财政部长写信给国会领导层，提醒他们注意债务上限。官方信函通知国会，1月2日生效的债务上限延长限制将于1月14日至1月23日之间达到。

The letter also stated that starting on January 21, the Treasury will begin to take extraordinary measures to curb the situation. This will include a two-month debt issuance suspension that will begin January 21 and last through March 14.

信中还表示，从1月21日开始，财政部将开始采取非常措施来遏制局势。这将包括从 1 月 21 日开始并持续到 3 月 14 日的两个月债务发行暂停。

According to crypto investor and analyst Raoul Paul, Bitcoin may experience a local top at $110,000 at the end of January before major corrections send it below $70,000 in February.

加密货币投资者兼分析师 Raoul Paul 表示，比特币可能会在 1 月底达到 110,000 美元的局部顶部，然后在 2 月份出现重大调整，使其跌破 70,000 美元。

There have been a lot of imitations of this chart going around with the wrong phasing. Here is the updated original from our work at Global Macro investor. You are welcome. pic.twitter.com/LcxOA3TEd5

这张图表有很多仿制品，但都存在错误的阶段。这是我们在全球宏观投资者工作中的更新原文。不客气。 pic.twitter.com/LcxOA3TEd5

This necessitated move by the Treasury to protect the full faith and credit of the United States could override market sentiments.

财政部为保护美国的充分信心和信用而采取的必要行动可能会凌驾于市场情绪之上。

Bitcoin’s Reaction Based on Market ReactionSome analysts argue that the suspension in debt issuance might not have a significant impact Bitcoin’s price.

比特币基于市场反应的反应一些分析师认为，暂停发债可能不会对比特币的价格产生重大影响。

Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of Redstone, says the traditional market will be tightened. However, Bitcoin’s impact will depend on institutional behavior.

Redstone 联合创始人兼首席运营官 Marcin Kazmierczak 表示，传统市场将会收紧。然而，比特币的影响将取决于机构行​​为。

In his interview with Cointelegraph, Kazmierczak says, “During previous debt ceiling standoffs, Bitcoin has shown mixed correlations with traditional market liquidity metrics. The key factors to watch will be institutional behavior and the broader market’s reaction.”

Kazmierczak 在接受 Cointelegraph 采访时表示：“在之前的债务上限僵局中，比特币与传统市场流动性指标表现出复杂的相关性。需要关注的关键因素将是机构行为和更广泛市场的反应。”

“One of the broader market’s reaction might be risk-off environments which can potentially impact Bitcoin negatively. The outcome would depend on investor behavior, economic policy responses, and global financial sentiment,” added Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet.

“更广泛市场的反应之一可能是避险环境，这可能会对比特币产生负面影响。结果将取决于投资者行为、经济政策反应和全球金融情绪。”Bitget Wallet 首席运营官 Alvin Kan 补充道。

However, according to Jamie Coutts, global liquidity would rise after the suspension is over, making way for Bitcoin to continue its uptrend.

不过，Jamie Coutts 表示，停牌结束后全球流动性将会上升，为比特币继续上涨趋势让路。

A #Bitcoin bid has overshadowed tightening liquidity over the past month. Yes, there is a lag between liquidity and Bitcoin, and therefore $BTC seems overstretched vs. global M2. My liquidity model, which I flagged 3 weeks back, suggested caution, especially with leverage.… https://t.co/FFX7NjmtOe pic.twitter.com/Amw8rBE03e

过去一个月，#Bitcoin 的出价掩盖了流动性紧缩的影响。是的，流动性和比特币之间存在滞后，因此 BTC 相对于全球 M2 来说似乎过度紧张。我三周前标记的流动性模型建议谨慎行事，尤其是在杠杆方面。… https://t.co/FFX7NjmtOe pic.twitter.com/Amw8rBE03e

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