比特币 (BTC) 价格调整：BTC 反弹尚未结束的 4 个原因

比特币 (BTC) 在飙升至 108,250 美元的历史新高后，已经抹去了本月的大部分涨幅。较年初至今高点下跌13%，进入局部调整。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped sharply this week after surging to a record high of $108,250 on Monday. The coin has erased most of the gains made this month and is now down 13% from the year-to-date high, having entered a local correction.

比特币 (BTC) 价格在周一飙升至历史新高 108,250 美元后，本周大幅下跌。该代币已经抹去了本月的大部分涨幅，目前已较年初至今的高点下跌 13%，进入局部调整。

However, several fundamental and technical factors indicate that Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback could be short-lived and that the coin is likely to bounce back and retest the all-time high. Here are four reasons why.

然而，一些基本面和技术因素表明，比特币的持续回调可能是短暂的，并且该货币可能会反弹并重新测试历史高点。以下是四个原因。

Bitcoin price corrections are not new, and the ongoing pullback is predicted. BTC price often posts a sharp retreat after rising to a crucial resistance level.

比特币价格调整并不新鲜，并且预计持续回调。比特币价格在上涨至关键阻力位后通常会大幅回落。

The long-term chart below shows that Bitcoin soared to $19,778 in December 2017 and then crashed by 84%. It then dropped by 55% after hitting a high of $64,647 in April 2021. Most recently, Bitcoin peaked at $73,885 in March and then crashed by 33% through August.

下面的长期图表显示，比特币在 2017 年 12 月飙升至 19,778 美元，然后暴跌 84%。在 2021 年 4 月触及 64,647 美元的高点后，比特币价格下跌了 55%。最近，比特币在 3 月份达到了 73,885 美元的峰值，然后到 8 月份暴跌了 33%。

A strong rebound will follow this retreat because BTC still has strong fundamentals. Mining output has fallen since the last halving event, while the amount of Bitcoin in exchanges has continued to drop.

此次回调之后将会出现强劲反弹，因为 BTC 仍然拥有强劲的基本面。自上次减半事件以来，挖矿产量一直在下降，而交易所中的比特币数量也在持续下降。

Similarly, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $34 billion in assets, a trend that is expected to continue, especially from institutional investors.

同样，现货比特币 ETF 已吸引了超过 340 亿美元的资产，这一趋势预计将持续下去，尤其是来自机构投资者。

Another reason Bitcoin prices may rebound is that the popular market value to realized value (MVRV) score is still lower than during historical corrections. The MVRV-Z score is calculated by subtracting the realized market cap from the circulating market cap and then dividing it by the standard deviation.

比特币价格可能反弹的另一个原因是，流行的市场价值与实现价值（MVRV）得分仍然低于历史调整期间。 MVRV-Z 分数的计算方法是从流通市值中减去已实现市值，然后除以标准差。

Higher MVRV-Z scores indicate that an asset is overheated and could be due for a correction. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s MVRV score peaked at 2.89 earlier this week, which is still lower than the levels seen during the bear market March this year (3.05), January 2022’s correction (3.21), and March 2021 (5.25). This suggests the coin has more upside potential once the panic selling subsides.

较高的 MVRV-Z 分数表明资产过热，可能需要进行修正。如下图所示，本周早些时候，比特币的 MVRV 得分达到峰值 2.89，仍低于今年 3 月熊市期间（3.05）、2022 年 1 月回调（3.21）和 2021 年 3 月（5.25）的水平。这表明一旦恐慌性抛售消退，代币就有更大的上涨潜力。

According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin’s MVRV score reached a peak of 5.2 during the bull market of 2021. MVRV scores above 3 have historically indicated that Bitcoin is overvalued and could be due for a correction.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，比特币的 MVRV 得分在 2021 年牛市期间达到了 5.2 的峰值。MVRV 得分高于 3 从历史上看表明比特币被高估，可能需要进行修正。

As shown in the chart above, BTC MVRV began to rise sharply in October 2023, coinciding with a surge in Bitcoin’s price. The MVRV score reached 2.89 on Monday, November 13th, as Bitcoin hit a record high of $108,250.

如上图所示，BTC MVRV 从 2023 年 10 月开始大幅上涨，恰逢比特币价格飙升。 11 月 13 日星期一，MVRV 得分达到 2.89，比特币创下 108,250 美元的历史新高。

However, the MVRV score still remains below the levels seen during previous bull markets, suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent rally could still have further to go. For instance, the MVRV score reached a peak of 5.2 during the bull market of 2021.

然而，MVRV 得分仍低于之前牛市期间的水平，这表明比特币近期的反弹可能还会进一步发展。例如，MVRV评分在2021年牛市期间达到了5.2的峰值。

Bitcoin prices may rebound as large BTC holders are still accumulating coins, and hopes of a strategic reserve are rising. MicroStrategy has added more BTC to its portfolio and now holds over 439,000 coins.

由于大型比特币持有者仍在积累比特币，并且战略储备的希望不断增强，比特币价格可能会反弹。 MicroStrategy 已在其投资组合中添加了更多 BTC，目前持有超过 439,000 个比特币。

Marathon Digital, the largest Bitcoin miner, holds over 44,300 coins, while Riot Platforms and Hut 8 Mining have also added thousands of coins.

最大的比特币矿商 Marathon Digital 持有超过 44,300 个比特币，而 Riot Platforms 和 Hut 8 Mining 也增加了数千个比特币。

After observing MicroStrategy’s success, more companies are likely to purchase Bitcoins. Over the past four years, MicroStrategy has transformed from a fledgling technology company into an $80 billion firm.

在观察 MicroStrategy 的成功之后，更多的公司可能会购买比特币。在过去的四年里，MicroStrategy 已经从一家羽翼未丰的科技公司转型为一家价值 800 亿美元的公司。

Additionally, discussions about creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, especially by Donald Trump, have gained traction. In a recent note, Bitwise noted that more countries could follow suit as the U.S. public debt has surged to over $36.4 trillion.

此外，关于建立战略性比特币储备的讨论，尤其是唐纳德·特朗普的讨论，也受到了关注。 Bitwise 在最近的一份报告中指出，随着美国公共债务已飙升至超过 36.4 万亿美元，更多国家可能会效仿。

Finally, Bitcoin price has formed strong bullish technical patterns when viewed from a broader perspective. The weekly chart shows that the coin formed a cup pattern between 2021 and March this year. It then formed a handle between March and October, followed by a strong comeback.

最后，从更广泛的角度来看，比特币价格已形成强劲的看涨技术形态。周线图显示，该币在2021年至今年3月期间形成了杯子形态。然后，它在三月到十月之间形成了一个手柄，随后强势卷土重来。

Bitcoin has rallied in most weeks since then, and it is often normal for an asset in an uptrend to pause temporarily. Bitcoin’s target in this bull run is $122,000, which was determined by measuring the depth of the cup at 76%. Adding 76% to the cup’s upper side gives a target of $122,000.

此后的大多数星期里，比特币都在上涨，处于上升趋势的资产暂时暂停通常是正常的。比特币本次牛市的目标是 122,000 美元，这是通过测量杯子深度 76% 确定的。杯子上边增加 76%，目标价格为 122,000 美元。