分析师：比特币 (BTC) 价格可能会出现 20%-30% 的回调，这可能是该资产发生的“最乐观的事情”

比特币（BTC）价格仍然高度波动，分析师表示，明确的进一步下跌最终可能对数字货币有利。

Cryptocurrency trading analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted that a 20% to 30% correction in Bitcoin (BTC) price would be “the most bullish thing” for the digital asset.

加密货币交易分析师 Ali Martinez 强调，比特币 (BTC) 价格调整 20% 至 30% 对于数字资产来说将是“最乐观的事情”。

According to Martinez’s analysis, which was shared in an X post on December 27, such a price correction would pave the way for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs.

根据 12 月 27 日在 X 帖子中分享的马丁内斯的分析，这种价格调整将为比特币达到新的历史高点铺平道路。

“A 20% to 30% correction is the most bullish thing that could happen to Bitcoin,” the analyst stated.

这位分析师表示：“20% 到 30% 的调整是比特币可能发生的最乐观的事情。”

Highlighting Bitcoin's historical price movements, Martinez explained that the coin has typically recorded strong rallies followed by corrections in the range of 20% to 30%. After hitting a bottom during such corrections, Bitcoin has gone on to reach new highs multiple times since 2016.

马丁内斯强调了比特币的历史价格走势，他解释说，该货币通常会出现强劲反弹，随后会出现 20% 至 30% 的回调。在此类调整中触底后，比特币自 2016 年以来多次创出新高。

“This pattern suggests that Bitcoin's current price movement could follow a similar trajectory,” the analysis noted.

分析指出：“这种模式表明比特币当前的价格走势可能遵循类似的轨迹。”

At the same time, Martinez also highlighted key price levels that traders should keep an eye on. In his December 27 post, he highlighted that if Bitcoin falls below $92,730, it could enter “free-fall territory.”

与此同时，马丁内斯还强调了交易者应关注的关键价格水平。他在 12 月 27 日的帖子中强调，如果比特币跌破 92,730 美元，它可能会进入“自由落体区域”。

“You don’t want Bitcoin to dip below $92,730 — it’s essentially free-fall territory if that level breaks,” he warned.

“你不希望比特币跌破 92,730 美元——如果突破这个水平，它基本上就是自由落体区域，”他警告说。

Using data from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, Martinez highlighted a gap in realized price activity between $92,730 and around the $105,000 mark. This gap indicates that a dip below $92,730 could lead to a sharp decline, potentially dropping Bitcoin to the $60,000 zone.

Martinez 使用 UTXO 已实现价格分布 (URPD) 图表中的数据，强调了已实现价格活动在 92,730 美元和 105,000 美元左右之间的差距。这一差距表明，跌破 92,730 美元可能会导致比特币大幅下跌，有可能将比特币跌至 60,000 美元区域。

Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Bitcoin has had an impressive run in 2024, adding over $1 trillion in market capitalization. The rally has been fueled by the latest halving cycle and optimism stemming from Donald Trump’s election victory, with his administration planning to implement pro-crypto policies.

尽管短期前景看跌，但比特币在 2024 年的表现令人印象深刻，市值增加了超过 1 万亿美元。最新的减半周期和唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的选举胜利带来的乐观情绪推动了这次涨势，他的政府计划实施支持加密货币的政策。

Looking ahead, analysts maintain a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, especially with expectations of increased institutional adoption under a pro-cryptocurrency government. In this line, banking giant Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2024.

展望未来，分析师对比特币的前景保持看涨，尤其是在支持加密货币的政府领导下，机构采用率会增加。在这方面，银行业巨头渣打银行预测，到 2024 年底，比特币的价格可能会达到 20 万美元。

Meanwhile, as of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $94,249, down 0.15% in the past 24 hours and up 1.75% on the weekly timeframe. However, the short-term technical setup shows that Bitcoin is still in trouble.

与此同时，截至发稿，比特币交易价格为 94,249 美元，过去 24 小时下跌 0.15%，周线上涨 1.75%。然而，短期技术面显示比特币仍陷入困境。

For instance, Bitcoin's current price is below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $94,670, indicating mild short-term weakness.

例如，比特币当前价格低于 94,670 美元的 50 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)，表明短期温和疲软。

Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Greed) reflects optimistic sentiment, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 44.41 indicates neutral to slightly bearish momentum.

此外，恐惧与贪婪指数为 72（贪婪），反映了乐观情绪，而 14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）为 44.41，表明中性至轻微看跌势头。

Despite this, Bitcoin remains well above its 200-day SMA at $70,978, maintaining a bullish long-term trend. In the short term, caution is advised as Bitcoin approaches critical support levels at $92,000 and $90,000.

尽管如此，比特币仍远高于 70,978 美元的 200 日移动平均线，保持看涨的长期趋势。短期内，随着比特币接近 92,000 美元和 90,000 美元的关键支撑位，建议谨慎行事。