比特币 (BTC) 价格分析：SOAB 指标显示短期持有者抛售最多，长期持有者预计价格更高

比特币持续徘徊在 10 万美元大关下方，持续的价格走势引发了激烈的分析。尽管达到了历史新高

output: As Bitcoin continues its price movement, remaining below the $100,000 mark with ongoing selling pressures, on-chain data is being analyzed to uncover the factors at play.

产出：随着比特币价格继续波动，并在持续的抛售压力下保持在 100,000 美元大关以下，正在分析链上数据以揭示起作用的因素。

One key indicator being examined is the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB), which provides insights into the activity of Bitcoin holders based on their holding periods.

正在检查的一项关键指标是支出产出年龄范围（SOAB），它根据比特币持有者的持有期限提供对比特币持有者活动的深入了解。

According to a CryptoQuant analysis by Yonsei Dent, the data reveals that Bitcoin investors who acquired their holdings within the past six to twelve months were notably active in selling during the recent price surge.

根据 Yonsei Dent 的 CryptoQuant 分析，数据显示，在过去六到十二个月内购买比特币的投资者在最近的价格飙升期间抛售尤其活跃。

This group of investors largely entered the market with the excitement surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier in the year. Their selling activity contributed to the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, which has since stabilized within the $90,000–$100,000 range.

这群投资者大多是因今年早些时候推出现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）而兴奋不已而进入市场的。他们的抛售活动加剧了比特币价格的下行压力，此后比特币价格稳定在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元的范围内。

Interestingly, long-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for over a year, showed minimal selling activity during this period.

有趣的是，长期持有者（定义为持有比特币一年以上的人）在此期间的抛售活动很少。

According to historical trends, these seasoned investors are likely anticipating higher price levels before considering substantial profit-taking.

根据历史趋势，这些经验丰富的投资者在考虑大幅获利了结之前可能会预期价格水平会更高。

Furthermore, the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric also indicates a decline in the selling of older Bitcoin in December compared to November.

此外，二元币销毁天数（CDD）指标还表明，与 11 月相比，12 月旧比特币的销售量有所下降。

This activity suggests that many long-term holders may be anticipating even higher prices before selling.

这一活动表明，许多长期持有者在出售之前可能预计价格会更高。

Another crucial metric that might hint at a significant move for Bitcoin is the Binance exchange’s BTC reserves, which have been continuously decreasing since August.

另一个可能暗示比特币出现重大走势的关键指标是币安交易所的 BTC 储备，该储备自 8 月份以来一直在持续下降。

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlights that Binance’s reserves recently reached their lowest level since January. This trend is significant because a similar decline earlier in the year preceded a 90% surge in BTC’s price.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 强调，币安的储备最近达到 1 月份以来的最低水平。这一趋势意义重大，因为今年早些时候 BTC 价格飙升 90% 之前也出现过类似的下跌。

The reduction in exchange reserves usually indicates that investors are moving their Bitcoin holdings from centralized exchanges to private wallets, suggesting less selling pressure and a preference for long-term holding strategies.

外汇储备的减少通常表明投资者正在将其持有的比特币从集中交易所转移到私人钱包，这表明抛售压力较小并且倾向于长期持有策略。

Historically, declining reserves on exchanges have aligned with periods of strong market optimism and price rallies.

从历史上看，交易所储备金的下降与市场强烈乐观和价格上涨的时期一致。

With BTC currently trading at a price of $95,567, down by 2.7% in the past day, the confluence of these factors — long-term holder confidence, reduced activity from older wallets, and declining exchange reserves — presents a cautiously optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

目前 BTC 的交易价格为 95,567 美元，过去一天下跌了 2.7%，长期持有者信心、旧钱包活动减少以及外汇储备下降等因素的综合作用，为比特币近期的走势呈现出谨慎乐观的前景。长期轨迹。

However, it is noted that sustained buying activity is crucial to breaking through psychological resistance levels and maintaining upward momentum in the coming days.

不过，值得注意的是，持续的买盘活动对于突破心理阻力位并在未来几天保持上涨势头至关重要。