比特币（BTC）价格分析：多头能否重回六位数的里程碑？

比特币（BTC）一直是金融讨论的焦点，吸引着散户和机构投资者。然而，在最近从历史性的 10 万美元里程碑进行市场调整后，比特币的零售需求急剧下降，暴跌至-16%。随着推动这一势头的小规模投资者减少，许多人质疑比特币能否重拾六位数的辉煌，或者仅靠机构支持是否能推动其下一步上涨。

Bitcoin’s retail demand has seen a dramatic decline, plunging to -16% according to on-chain data from Glassnode. This marks a significant shift from the retail-driven rallies that have largely fueled Bitcoin’s meteoric rises.

根据 Glassnode 的链上数据，比特币的零售需求急剧下降，跌幅至-16%。这标志着散户驱动的反弹在很大程度上推动了比特币的迅速上涨，这是一个重大转变。

However, the recent market correction from Bitcoin’s historic $100,000 milestone seems to have dampened the enthusiasm of smaller participants. As a result, Bitcoin’s path back to six-figure territory now appears to be a matter of whether institutional support alone can propel it to new highs.

然而，最近比特币历史性的 10 万美元里程碑的市场调整似乎削弱了小型参与者的热情。因此，比特币重返六位数的道路现在看来取决于机构的支持能否将其推至新高。

Retail Investors Take a Backseat

散户投资者退居二线

Retail investors have played a critical role in Bitcoin’s remarkable bull runs over the years. These smaller participants are known for their enthusiasm and often drive market euphoria, pushing BTC prices to new highs. However, several factors have contributed to their recent retreat:

多年来，散户投资者在比特币令人瞩目的牛市中发挥了关键作用。这些规模较小的参与者以其热情而闻名，经常带动市场兴奋，将 BTC 价格推至新高。然而，有几个因素导致了他们最近的撤退：

The recent market correction, which saw Bitcoin’s price plummet from its $100,000 peak, has discouraged many retail investors from re-entering the market at higher prices.

最近的市场调整导致比特币价格从 10 万美元的峰值暴跌，这使得许多散户投资者不愿以更高的价格重新进入市场。

Rising inflation and economic concerns have shifted the priorities of smaller investors, many of whom now prefer to allocate their funds to more pressing needs.

通胀上升和经济担忧已经改变了小型投资者的优先事项，其中许多人现在更愿意将资金分配给更紧迫的需求。

Institutions to the ‘Bitcoin’s price recovered from a recent low of $89,000 to reach $92,000 on Monday, as institutional investors appear to be seizing the opportunity to accumulate more BTC. While retail enthusiasm has cooled, institutional interest seems to be growing stronger than ever.

机构投资者认为，比特币价格周一从近期低点 89,000 美元反弹至 92,000 美元，机构投资者似乎正在抓住机会积累更多比特币。尽管散户热情有所降温，但机构兴趣似乎比以往任何时候都更加强烈。

On-chain data from Santiment indicates increasing activity among large wallet holders, suggesting that these heavyweight players are viewing Bitcoin’s dip as a strategic buying opportunity. Key signs of institutional confidence include:

Santiment 的链上数据表明，大型钱包持有者的活动不断增加，这表明这些重量级参与者将比特币的下跌视为战略性买入机会。机构信心的主要迹象包括：

A recent uptick in whale transactions, with wallets holding 100 to 10,000 BTC showing higher activity.

最近鲸鱼交易有所增加，持有 100 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包表现出更高的活跃度。

Rising الكبير البيتكوين الكبير معدل التعدين يشير إلى مشاركة أكبر من كبار المستثمرين.

比特币大涨 挖矿率高意味着大投资者的参与程度加大。

Technical and Market Dynamics at Play

发挥作用的技术和市场动态

Bitcoin’s path back to $100,000 will be influenced by a combination of technical resilience and market dynamics. Critical areas to watch include:

比特币重回 10 万美元的道路将受到技术弹性和市场动态的共同影响。需要关注的关键领域包括：

BTC’s ability to sustain a bullish momentum above the 200-day moving average, currently around $86,000, will be crucial for further upside potential.

BTC 能否在 200 日移动均线（目前约为 86,000 美元）上方维持看涨势头，对于进一步上涨潜力至关重要。

Resistance at the 50-day moving average, currently around $94,000, could pose a challenge that needs to be overcome for a sustained rally.

50 日移动平均线的阻力位目前约为 94,000 美元，可能会构成持续反弹需要克服的挑战。

Evolving Market Sentiment

不断变化的市场情绪

Bitcoin’s ability to weather the storm of diminishing retail interest reflects its maturation as a global asset. Once heavily reliant on hype-driven cycles, Bitcoin is now increasingly influenced by macroeconomic trends, regulatory shifts, and integration into mainstream financial systems. This evolution positions it as a long-term contender in the financial world, beyond the realm of speculative tools.

比特币能够抵御散户兴趣下降的风暴，反映出其作为全球资产的成熟。比特币曾经严重依赖炒作驱动的周期，现在越来越受到宏观经济趋势、监管转变以及融入主流金融体系的影响。这种演变使其成为金融界的长期竞争者，超越投机工具的领域。

As the crypto market awaits Bitcoin’s next move, all eyes will be on whether it can defy the odds, rally past resistance, and solidify its status as the first cryptocurrency to sustain six-figure valuations.

当加密市场等待比特币的下一步走势时，所有人的目光都集中在它是否能够克服困难，突破阻力，并巩固其作为第一个维持六位数估值的加密货币的地位。