CryptoQuant 引用包括恐惧和贪婪指数在内的关键指标，比特币 (BTC) 市场顶峰可能即将到来

在比特币价值达到新峰值的同时，CryptoQuant 引用了恐惧与贪婪指数、资金流和 UTXO 利润等指标来暗示潜在的市场峰值。

Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high during Monday’s session, yet several metrics are signaling a potential market peak.

比特币价格在周一交易中创下历史新高，但一些指标表明市场可能达到峰值。

Bitcoin price soared to a new all-time high on Monday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit a new peak value amid a broader market rally that saw prices rise over 93,000.

周一，比特币价格飙升至历史新高。全球最大的加密货币在更广泛的市场反弹中创下新高，价格上涨超过 93,000 美元。

Following this latest surge, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant raised questions about whether it is time to sell or hold. Several key metrics were closely monitored by analysts at CryptoQuant to better understand the potential direction of the market.

在这一最新的激增之后，链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 提出了关于现在是卖出还是持有的问题。 CryptoQuant 的分析师密切监控了几个关键指标，以更好地了解市场的潜在方向。

Fear & Greed Index Signals Caution

恐惧和贪婪指数发出警告信号

One of the key indicators under review is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is widely used to gauge market sentiment. The index, currently above 80, reflects heightened greed among investors.

正在审查的关键指标之一是加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数，该指数被广泛用于衡量市场情绪。该指数目前高于 80，反映出投资者的贪婪程度加剧。

Historically, such levels have often preceded market tops, suggesting the need for caution. While the market can sustain upward momentum during periods of extreme greed, the likelihood of a reversal increases as the index remains elevated.

从历史上看，这样的水平往往先于市场顶部，表明需要谨慎。虽然市场在极度贪婪时期可以维持上行势头，但随着指数保持高位，逆转的可能性就会增加。

New Money Flow & Long-term Holding Behaviour

新资金流与长期持有行为

Another critical factor affecting Bitcoin’s price sustainability is the flow of new capital into the market. CryptoQuant pointed out that insufficient new money inflow could increase selling pressure.

影响比特币价格可持续性的另一个关键因素是新资本流入市场。 CryptoQuant指出，新资金流入不足可能会增加抛售压力。

Realized Cap Growth over a 365-day period is being monitored as a tool to track this trend. Without sufficient inflows, sustaining the current rally could prove challenging, potentially marking a near-term peak.

正在监控 365 天期间已实现的资本增长，作为跟踪这一趋势的工具。如果没有足够的资金流入，维持当前的涨势可能会具有挑战性，并可能标志着近期的峰值。

Further, long-term holders’ behavior is another crucial metric drawing attention. CryptoQuant observed that market tops often coincide with the activation of dormant Bitcoin. Coin Days Destroyed, a measure of long-held Bitcoin being moved, has reached levels exceeding 15–20 million, which historically aligns with market tops.

此外，长期持有者的行为是另一个引起关注的关键指标。 CryptoQuant 观察到，市场顶部通常与休眠比特币的激活同时发生。 Coin Days Destroyed（衡量长期持有的比特币被转移的指标）已达到超过 15-2000 万的水平，这与历史上的市场顶部一致。

Bitcoin Exchange Flows & UTXOs

比特币交易流程和 UTXO

Additionally, exchange flow data provides further insights. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) tracks Bitcoin movement between spot and derivative exchanges. Recent data indicates bearish signals as Bitcoin flows shift toward derivative platforms, often a precursor to downward price adjustments.

此外，交换流数据提供了进一步的见解。交易所间流量脉冲（IFP）跟踪现货和衍生品交易所之间的比特币变动。最近的数据表明，随着比特币流向衍生品平台，出现看跌信号，这通常是价格下行调整的先兆。

Previously, CryptoQuant’s CEO pointed out the heightened euphoria driving the current rally. With 99.3% of Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) in profit, the market is in an extremely bullish phase. While such phases have historically lasted three to twelve months, analysts are urging caution due to the possibility of sudden reversals.

此前，CryptoQuant 的首席执行官指出，当前的涨势是由高涨的乐观情绪推动的。比特币 99.3% 的未花费交易输出（UTXO）都在盈利，市场正处于极其看涨的阶段。虽然这种阶段历来持续三到十二个月，但分析人士敦促谨慎行事，因为可能会出现突然逆转。

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