比特币（BTC）3年没有看到这一DXY罕见事件，可能会引发看涨的逆转

最近几周，比特币一直在低点挣扎，许多投资者质疑该资产是否处于主要熊周期的边缘。但是，一个罕见的数据点

Bitcoin has been struggling with lower lows in recent weeks, leaving many investors questioning whether the asset is on the brink of a major bear cycle. However, a rare data point tied to the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) suggests that a significant shift in market dynamics may be imminent. This bitcoin buy signal, which has only appeared three times in BTC’s history, could point to a bullish reversal despite the current bearish sentiment.

最近几周，比特币一直在低点挣扎，许多投资者质疑该资产是否处于主要熊周期的边缘。但是，与美元强度指数（DXY）相关的罕见数据点表明，市场动态可能会发生重大变化。这个比特币购买信号在BTC的历史中仅出现了三遍，尽管目前有看跌的情绪，但仍可能指出看涨的逆转。

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:

有关此主题的深入了解，请在此处查看最近的YouTube视频：

Bitcoin: This Had Only Ever Happened 3x Before

比特币：这只发生了3倍

BTC vs DXY Inverse Relationship

BTC与DXY逆关系

Bitcoin’s price action has long been inversely correlated with the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY).

长期以来，比特币的价格行动与美元强度指数（DXY）成反比。

Historically, when the DXY strengthens, BTC tends to struggle, while a declining DXY often creates favorable macroeconomic conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation. This is due to the inverse relationship between the dollar index and risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

从历史上看，当DXY增强时，BTC倾向于挣扎，而下降的DXY通常会为比特币价格升值而产生有利的宏观经济条件。这是由于美元指数与股票和加密货币等风险资产之间的反比关系。

Despite this historically bullish influence, Bitcoin's price has continued to decline, recently dropping from over $100,000 to below $80,000. However, past occurrences of this rare DXY retracement suggest that a delayed but meaningful BTC rebound could still be in play.

尽管有历史上看涨的影响，但比特币的价格仍在继续下跌，最近从100,000美元下降到低于80,000美元。但是，过去这种罕见的DXY回波的发生表明，延迟但有意义的BTC反弹仍然可以发挥作用。

Bitcoin Buy Signal Historic Occurrences

比特币购买信号历史事件

Currently, the DXY has been sharply decreasing, an action that occurred over 3.4% in a single week—a rate of change that has only been seen three times in the history of Bitcoin.

目前，DXY急剧减少，这一动作在一个星期内发生了3.4％，这一变化速度在比特币历史上只有三遍。

To understand the potential impact of this DXY signal, let's examine the three prior instances when this sharp decrease in the dollar strength index took place:

为了了解该DXY信号的潜在影响，让我们检查一下这种急剧下降的美元强度指数的三个先前情况：

The first instance occurred after BTC's price bottomed out in 2015. Following a period of sideways consolidation, BTC's price experienced a significant upward surge, gaining over 200% within months.

第一次是在BTC的价格在2015年触底之后发生的。在一段时间的侧面合并之后，BTC的价格经历了巨大的上涨，几个月内增长了200％以上。

The second instance occurred in early 2020, following the sharp market collapse triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the 2015 case, BTC initially experienced choppy price action before a rapid upward trend emerged, culminating in a multi-month rally.

第二个实例发生在2020年初，在Covid-19-19大流行触发的急剧崩溃之后。与2015年的案例类似，BTC最初在快速上升趋势之前经历了波动的价格行动，最终在多个月的集会中达到了最终。

The most recent instance happened at the end of the 2022 bear market. After an initial period of price stabilization, BTC followed with a sustained recovery, climbing to substantially higher prices and kicking off the current bull cycle over the following months.

最近的实例发生在2022年熊市结束。经过最初的价格稳定，BTC随后持续恢复，攀升至大大升至价格，并在接下来的几个月中开始了当前的牛周期。

In each case, the sharp decrease in the DXY was followed by a consolidation phase before BTC embarked on a significant bullish run. Overlaying the price action of these three instances onto our current price action we get an idea of how things could play out in the near future.

在每种情况下，DXY的急剧下降之后，在BTC进行了明显的看涨奔跑之前，是一个合并阶段。将这三个实例的价格动作覆盖到我们当前的价格动作中，我们了解情况如何在不久的将来发挥作用。

Equity Markets Correlation

股票市场的相关性

Interestingly, this pattern isn't limited to Bitcoin. A similar relationship can be observed in traditional markets, particularly in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. When the DXY retraces sharply, equity markets have historically outperformed their baseline returns.

有趣的是，这种模式不仅限于比特币。在传统市场，尤其是在纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数中，可以观察到类似的关系。当DXY急剧检索时，股票市场历史上的表现优于其基线回报。

The all-time average 30-day return for the Nasdaq following a similar DXY decline stands at 4.29%, well above the standard 30-day return of 1.91%. Extending the window to 60 days, the Nasdaq's average return increases to nearly 7%, nearly doubling the typical performance of 3.88%. This correlation suggests that Bitcoin's performance following a sharp DXY retracement aligns with historical broader market trends, reinforcing the argument for a delayed but inevitable positive response.

在类似DXY下降之后，纳斯达克的历史平均30天回报率为4.29％，远高于标准的30天回报率为1.91％。纳斯达克的平均收益率将窗口扩大到60天，将窗口升至近7％，几乎使典型的3.88％的典型性能翻了一番。这种相关性表明，在急剧DXY回溯之后，比特币的性能与历史广泛的市场趋势保持一致，从而加强了对延迟但不可避免的积极反应的论点。

Conclusion

结论

The current decline in the US Dollar Strength Index represents a rare and historically bullish Bitcoin buy signal. Despite BTC's immediate price action remaining weak, historical precedents suggest that a period of consolidation will likely be followed by a significant rally. Especially when reinforced by observing the same response in indexes such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the broader macroeconomic environment is setting up favorably for BTC.

目前，美元强度指数的下降代表了一个罕见且历史上看涨的比特币购买信号。尽管BTC立即采取了弱势行动，但历史先例表明，合并时期可能会随后发生重大集会。尤其是当在纳斯达克和标准普尔500等索引中观察相同的响应来加强时，更广泛的宏观经济环境对BTC有利。

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探索实时数据，图表，指标和深入研究，以保持比特币在比特币杂志Pro的价格行动领先。