Coinbase 溢价指数跌至两年低点，比特币 (BTC) 面临严峻考验，接下来会发生什么？

Coinbase 和其他交易所上的比特币价格差异是通过 Coinbase 溢价指数来衡量的，该指数最近跌至 -0.2%，为两年来的最低水平。

The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and other exchanges, has fallen to -0.2%, the lowest level in two years. This index indicates the level of institutional interest flowing through Coinbase, and the premium’s value suggests that U.S.-based trading platforms like Coinbase may be experiencing a decline.

衡量Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）和其他交易所上比特币价格差异的Coinbase溢价指数已降至-0.2%，为两年来的最低水平。该指数表明了流经 Coinbase 的机构兴趣水平，溢价值表明 Coinbase 等美国交易平台可能正在经历下降。

This could indicate that U.S. buyers are selling more frequently compared to buyers in other regions, potentially signaling lower institutional demand in the United States. Previously, a positive Coinbase Premium was considered a indication of strong institutional buying pressure, which usually drives the price of Bitcoin up. On the other hand, a negative premium may indicate upcoming price volatility or even a downturn if the trend continues.

这可能表明，与其他地区的买家相比，美国买家的出售频率更高，可能表明美国的机构需求较低。此前，Coinbase 溢价为正被认为表明机构购买压力强劲，这通常会推动比特币价格上涨。另一方面，负溢价可能表明即将到来的价格波动，如果趋势持续下去，甚至可能出现下滑。

Considering that Bitcoin has seen a resurgence in recent months, this low premium may indicate a pause in the asset’s upward momentum, especially if significant institutional interest in the asset fails to return. After breaking out of the previous downtrend channel, Bitcoin found support at $65,500, and the coin is now trading near crucial levels.

考虑到比特币近几个月来的复苏，这种低溢价可能表明该资产的上涨势头暂停，特别是如果机构对该资产的兴趣未能恢复的话。在突破之前的下降通道后，比特币在 65,500 美元处找到支撑，目前该币的交易价格接近关键水平。

A drop below this level could send Bitcoin down to test the $63,000 range, which marks another key support zone based on recent trading activity if selling pressure continues to build. On the upside, if buyers regain control and the Coinbase Premium turns positive, Bitcoin could eye the $72,000 level, which several analysts have identified as the next major resistance.

跌破该水平可能会导致比特币下跌，测试 63,000 美元的区间，如果抛售压力继续增加，这标志着基于近期交易活动的另一个关键支撑区域。从好的方面来看，如果买家重新获得控制权并且 Coinbase 溢价转正，比特币可能会关注 72,000 美元的水平，一些分析师认为这是下一个主要阻力位。

While Bitcoin has shown resilience around its current price levels, a reversal in the premium index would indicate a return in institutional confidence. For now, traders should keep an eye on the support levels at $65,500 and $63,000, as a breakdown there could indicate more significant corrections.

尽管比特币在当前价格水平上表现出弹性，但溢价指数的逆转将表明机构信心的回归。目前，交易者应关注 65,500 美元和 63,000 美元的支撑位，因为突破该支撑位可能预示着更重大的调整。