伯恩斯坦将比特币价格目标上调至 2025 年减半后至 15 万美元

Bernstein 分析师预计，在即将到来的减半事件之后，比特币的价值将大幅飙升，预计到 2025 年将达到 15 万美元。该预测考虑了机构采用率的增加、现货比特币 ETF 整合以及挖矿动态的变化。尽管近期比特币价格因 ETF 流入放缓而下跌，但 Bernstein 仍保持乐观态度，称减半有可能减少供应并刺激需求，从而导致价格大幅上涨。

Bernstein Maintains Bullish Stance on Bitcoin, Predicts $150,000 Price Target By 2025

Bernstein 维持对比特币的看涨立场，预计到 2025 年价格目标将达到 15 万美元

Reaffirming their unwavering optimism, Bernstein analysts have issued a client note outlining their ambitious price forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a significant surge in value following the upcoming halving event. The firm's esteemed analysts, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, anticipate a remarkable ascent to $150,000 by the end of 2025. This audacious forecast is anchored upon a confluence of compelling factors, including the burgeoning adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors and transformative shifts in mining dynamics.

伯恩斯坦分析师重申了他们坚定不移的乐观态度，他们发布了一份客户报告，概述了他们对比特币雄心勃勃的价格预测，预计在即将到来的减半事件后，比特币价值将大幅飙升。该公司备受尊敬的分析师 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 预计，到 2025 年底，比特币价格将显着上涨至 150,000 美元。这一大胆的预测基于一系列引人注目的因素，包括机构投资者对比特币的迅速采用以及采矿动态的变革性转变。

Post-Halving Bullish Trajectory

减半后的看涨轨迹

The halving, a meticulously planned reduction in the reward for mining Bitcoin, is poised to transpire between April 19th and 20th, 2024. This highly anticipated event is characterized by a reduction in the newly minted Bitcoin entering circulation, a fundamental factor that has historically ignited profound price increases.

减半是精心策划的比特币挖矿奖励减少，预计将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日至 20 日之间发生。这一备受期待的事件的特点是新铸造的比特币进入流通量的减少，这是历史上引发的一个基本因素价格大幅上涨。

While the immediate impact of the halving may take several months to manifest, Bernstein remains steadfast in its bullish outlook for Bitcoin's potential to ascend to unprecedented heights, particularly as the market adapts to the revised mining rewards and ETF inflows stabilize.

虽然减半的直接影响可能需要几个月才能显现出来，但伯恩斯坦仍然坚定地看好比特币有潜力升至前所未有的高度，特别是在市场适应修改后的挖矿奖励和 ETF 流入稳定的情况下。

The Halving Effect: Demand-Driven Price Surge

减半效应：需求驱动的价格飙升

Bernstein's analysts contend that while the halving intrinsically reduces the supply of new bitcoins, its influence on price is predominantly driven by subsequent escalations in demand, rather than solely the diminished supply.

伯恩斯坦的分析师认为，虽然减半本质上减少了新比特币的供应，但其对价格的影响主要是由随后的需求升级驱动的，而不仅仅是供应减少。

Key Drivers of Demand: Fueling Bitcoin's Ascent

需求的主要驱动因素：推动比特币的上涨

According to Bernstein's meticulous analysis, a constellation of key developments is poised to stimulate heightened demand for Bitcoin:

根据伯恩斯坦的细致分析，一系列关键发展将刺激对比特币的需求增加：

ETF Inflows: A Catalyst for Growth

ETF 流入：增长的催化剂

The firm astutely observes that although exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have recently decelerated, they are anticipated to regain momentum post-halving. This resurgence in ETF inflows will serve as a pivotal catalyst, propelling Bitcoin's price upward.

该公司敏锐地观察到，尽管交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入最近有所放缓，但预计在减半后将恢复势头。 ETF 资金流入的复苏将成为推动比特币价格上涨的关键催化剂。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Integration

现货比特币 ETF 和机构整合

The seamless integration of spot Bitcoin ETFs with wirehouses and Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) is projected to amplify structural demand for Bitcoin. This strategic move will facilitate broader access to Bitcoin for institutional investors, further bolstering its allure as a mainstream asset class.

现货比特币 ETF 与经纪商和注册投资顾问 (RIA) 的无缝整合预计将扩大对比特币的结构性需求。这一战略举措将促进机构投资者更广泛地接触比特币，进一步增强其作为主流资产类别的吸引力。

Revised Price Prediction: A More Ambitious Target

修订后的价格预测：更雄心勃勃的目标

Earlier in March, Bernstein had initially projected a conservative target of $90,000 for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2024, a significant upward revision from their previous estimate of $80,000. This adjustment reflected the robust price appreciation witnessed in January, driven by the optimistic sentiment surrounding ETF approvals ahead of the halving event.

3 月初，Bernstein 最初预计到 2024 年底比特币价格保守目标为 90,000 美元，较之前估计的 80,000 美元大幅上调。这一调整反映了 1 月份价格的强劲上涨，这是由减半事件之前围绕 ETF 批准的乐观情绪推动的。

The analysts have now raised their expectations even further, forecasting a stratospheric rise to $150,000 by the end of 2025. This revised forecast underscores their unwavering belief in Bitcoin's enduring potential as a store of value and its growing acceptance as a legitimate investment vehicle.

分析师们现在进一步提高了他们的预期，预测到 2025 年底比特币将飙升至 15 万美元。这一修改后的预测强调了他们对比特币作为价值储存手段的持久潜力的坚定信念，以及比特币作为合法投资工具越来越被接受的信念。

Impact of Mining Dynamics: Mitigating Miner Concerns

采矿动态的影响：减轻矿工的担忧

The halving event also raises legitimate concerns regarding the profitability of Bitcoin mining, as the reward for mining is effectively halved. This potential decline in profitability could trigger apprehension among miners, a phenomenon aptly termed the "miner fear factor" by Bernstein.

减半事件还引发了人们对比特币挖矿盈利能力的合理担忧，因为挖矿奖励实际上减半了。这种潜在的盈利能力下降可能会引发矿工的担忧，伯恩斯坦将这种现象恰当地称为“矿工恐惧因素”。

To mitigate these concerns, Bernstein recommends strategic investments in companies like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK), which are expected to thrive due to their astute self-mining strategies and leadership within the mining sector. These companies are poised to weather the potential profitability challenges posed by the halving, ensuring the continued production of new bitcoins and maintaining the integrity of the Bitcoin network.

为了缓解这些担忧，伯恩斯坦建议对 Riot Platforms (RIOT) 和 CleanSpark (CLSK) 等公司进行战略投资，这些公司由于精明的自挖矿策略和在采矿业的领导地位而有望蓬勃发展。这些公司准备好应对减半带来的潜在盈利挑战，确保新比特币的持续生产并保持比特币网络的完整性。

Conclusion

结论

Bernstein's unwavering optimism for Bitcoin is grounded in a comprehensive analysis of fundamental drivers, including increased institutional adoption, the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the transformative effects of the upcoming halving event. Despite acknowledging potential headwinds, such as the profitability concerns of miners, the firm's analysts remain steadfast in their belief that Bitcoin is poised to shatter its previous all-time highs and establish itself as a formidable asset in the global financial landscape. As the halving approaches and the market matures, Bernstein's ambitious price target of $150,000 by 2025 appears increasingly feasible, signaling a new era of growth and acceptance for Bitcoin.

伯恩斯坦对比特币坚定不移的乐观态度是基于对基本面驱动因素的全面分析，包括机构采用率的增加、现货比特币 ETF 的影响以及即将到来的减半事件的变革性影响。尽管承认存在潜在的不利因素，例如矿商盈利能力的担忧，但该公司的分析师仍然坚信，比特币有望打破其之前的历史高点，并成为全球金融格局中的一项强大资产。随着减半的临近和市场的成熟，Bernstein 到 2025 年达到 15 万美元的雄心勃勃的价格目标似乎越来越可行，这标志着比特币进入了增长和接受的新时代。