亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，比特币（BTC）可能在市场周期峰值之前达到666,000美元

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预计，比特币在市场周期达到峰值之前达到了引人注目的价格，这表明货币扩张助长​​了大量集会。

Crypto traders are closely following the insights of Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, who has shared his predictions for Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the factors that could influence its peak.

加密交易员紧随其后的是Bitmex前首席执行官Arthur Hayes的见解，他分享了他对比特币价格轨迹的预测以及可能影响其顶峰的因素。

During a recent conversation on PomPod with Kyle Chasse, Hayes delved into the possibilities for Bitcoin’s final top in this market cycle, considering what could spark the apex.

在最近关于凯尔·查斯（Kyle Chasse）的庞普（Pompod）对话中，海耶斯（Hayes）探讨了比特币在这个市场周期中最终榜首的可能性，考虑到什么可能引发顶点。

While he previously saw potential for Bitcoin to reach $240,000, he now believes that with the amount of fiat money being created, figures like $666,000, $500,000, or even $1 million, all hold psychological significance. However, he noted that once fiat money creation reaches extreme levels, it might be time to exit the market.

尽管他以前看到比特币的潜力达到240,000美元，但他现在认为，随着菲亚特货币的创造量，诸如666,000美元，500,000美元甚至100万美元之类的数字都具有心理意义。但是，他指出，一旦菲亚特货币创造达到极端水平，可能是时候退出市场了。

Moreover, Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s price movements are no longer primarily driven by its traditional four-year halving cycles.

此外，海斯认为，比特币的价格变动不再主要是由于其传统的四年减半周期所驱动的。

“People used to say, ‘Oh, it's all about the halvings.’ I think that narrative has now changed. We used to break down the Bitcoin price based on the fact that it’s a mineable asset and there’s a scarcity factor, tying it to the halvings, like a clock that goes tick-tock. But now, Bitcoin is a full-fledged asset class that's discussed at the highest echelons of financial institutions and central banks around the world,” he said.

“人们曾经说过，'哦，这全都是关于过度的。'我认为叙事现在已经改变了，因为这是一个可笑的资产，并且有一个稀缺的因素，就像是the脚的时钟一样，但现在，比特币是一个全面的资产类别。

According to Hayes, Bitcoin has surpassed gold as the most responsive indicator of fiat liquidity, essentially serving as a 24/7 market signal for global monetary conditions.

根据海耶斯的说法，比特币已超过黄金，是菲亚特流动性最响应的指标，本质上是全球货币条件的24/7市场信号。

This transformation in Bitcoin’s role occurs as governments and central banks are intervening in economies more aggressively with monetary policies.

比特币角色的这种转变发生在政府和中央银行更加积极地与货币政策中进行干预。

With the focus on inflation concerns and the implications of excessive liquidity, Bitcoin’s price action is now reflecting broader economic forces rather than just internal supply factors.

由于关注通货膨胀的关注和流动性过度的含义，比特币的价格行动现在反映了更广泛的经济力量，而不仅仅是内部供应因素。

This shift makes Bitcoin more sensitive to macroeconomic trends, particularly shifts in interest rates and liquidity injections, as institutions are keenly watching these developments.

这种转变使比特币对宏观经济趋势更加敏感，尤其是利率和流动性注射的转变，因为机构正在敏锐地观察这些发展。

Furthermore, the global financial landscape is evolving, with institutions and nations readjusting their stance on digital assets. As traditional markets experience volatility from geopolitical events and macroeconomic shifts, Bitcoin could continue to emerge as a hedge, reinforcing its status as a key asset in the modern financial system.

此外，全球金融格局正在不断发展，机构和国家可以重新调整其对数字资产的立场。随着传统市场经历地缘政治事件和宏观经济转变的波动，比特币可能会继续作为树篱出现，从而增强其作为现代金融体系中的关键资产的地位。