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最近幾個月,加密生態系統已經看到了與公眾和政治人物相關的各種代幣的出現。毫無疑問,最容易說話的是特朗普硬幣
Recently, the crypto ecosystem has seen the emergence of various tokens linked to public and political figures. Among them, TRUMP Coin has sparked considerable interest, with its value and trading volume growing in parallel with the media visibility of the President of the United States, Donald Trump.
最近,加密生態系統已經看到了與公共和政治人物相關的各種代幣的出現。其中,特朗普硬幣引發了極大的興趣,其價值和交易量與美國總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的媒體知名度同時增長。
Currently priced at $8.04 according to CoinMarketCap data, the token presents interesting dynamics both in the spot market and in the derivatives markets. But beyond the media appeal, does TRUMP Coin truly represent an asset with solid prospects? In this article, we analyze the current situation, observing market sentiment, volumes, liquidations, and we formulate two hypothetical scenarios for the future of the token.
目前,根據CoinMarketCap數據的價格為8.04美元,該令牌在現貨市場和衍生品市場中都呈現出有趣的動態。但是除了媒體吸引力之外,特朗普硬幣是否真的代表了具有穩定前景的資產?在本文中,我們分析了當前情況,觀察市場情緒,卷,清算,並為代幣的未來製定了兩個假設的情況。
Current State of TRUMP Coin
當前特朗普硬幣的狀態
Price and Capitalization
價格和資本化
At the time of writing, TRUMP Coin is trading at $8.04, slightly down by 0.41% in the last 24 hours. The market capitalization is approximately $1.6 billion, with a daily trading volume of $333.86 million, significantly down compared to the previous day (-48.39%).
在撰寫本文時,特朗普硬幣的交易價格為8.04美元,在過去24小時內略低於0.41%。市值約為16億美元,每日交易量為3.386億美元,與前一天相比顯著下降(-48.39%)。
The token's capital gains are remarkable, considering that in December 2022, it was priced at less than $1. Since then, it has experienced a remarkable rally, reaching a peak of over $30 in January 2024.
考慮到2022年12月,該代幣的資本收益非常出色,價格低於1美元。從那以後,它經歷了一次非凡的集會,在2024年1月達到了30美元以上的高峰。
The total supply of the token is 999.99 million TRUMP, but the circulating supply is only 199.99 million, suggesting that a large portion of the token is still locked or not distributed in the market. This imbalance can increase volatility and favor speculative dynamics.
代幣的總供應量為9.999億特朗普,但循環供應僅為1.999億,這表明該令牌的很大一部分仍被鎖定或未分佈在市場上。這種失衡會增加波動性並有利於投機性動態。
Sentiment and Participation
情感和參與
The sentiment of the community on CoinMarketCap shows a slightly bullish trend, with 66% of users declaring themselves optimistic against 34% who predict a decline. However, this enthusiasm seems more related to the character the token is inspired by rather than the token's fundamentals.
社區對CoinMarketCap的看法表現出略有看漲的趨勢,有66%的用戶對預測下降的34%的人表示樂觀。但是,這種熱情似乎與代幣的角色更相關,而不是由令牌的基本面。
On social media, a post by Watcher.Guru has gone viral, reporting a statement attributed to Donald Trump (“I haven’t seen today’s stock market drop”), highlighting how the narrative around the character directly influences perception and, often, the price of the token.
在社交媒體上,Watcher.guru的一篇文章已經風靡一時,報告了唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的一份聲明(“我還沒有看到今天的股市下降”),強調了圍繞角色的敘事如何直接影響感知,並且通常會影響代幣的價格。
TRUMP Coin: dynamics of derivatives and data from Coinglass
特朗普硬幣:衍生物和數據的動態
Liquidations: A Warning Bell
清算:警告鈴
One of the most significant elements is the amount of liquidations recorded in recent months. According to the data from Coinglass, in the last 60 days, over $645 million in liquidations (both short and long) related to TRUMP Coin have been recorded.
最重要的要素之一是最近幾個月記錄的清算量。根據Coinglass的數據,在過去60天內,已記錄了與特朗普硬幣相關的6.45億美元的清算(短和長)。
This figure is particularly high, especially if we consider that other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have recorded total liquidations of $474.36 million and $386.12 million respectively in the same period.
這個數字特別高,尤其是如果我們認為比特幣和以太坊(以太坊)的其他主要加密貨幣的總清算率分別為4.743億美元和38612萬美元。
An exceptional peak of liquidations (both short and long) occurred around mid-January, coinciding with a price surge beyond $30. Since then, TRUMP Coin has embarked on a slow decline, now standing at $8.
1月中旬左右,清算的峰值(短和長)發生了高峰,與價格上漲超過30美元相吻合。從那以後,特朗普硬幣開始緩慢下降,現在高達8美元。
This indicates that many traders have bet in an excessively speculative manner, being liquidated in both bull and bear positions. The phenomenon is typical of extremely volatile assets and often manipulated by a few large players.
這表明許多交易者以過度投機的方式下注,並在公牛和熊位置上銷售。該現像是典型的極度波動性資產的特徵,並且經常被一些大玩家操縱。
Open Interest and Volume
開放興趣和數量
According to the data from Coinglass:
根據Coinglass的數據:
These numbers show a significant speculative interest, but also a certain concentration on a few exchanges, which can make the market vulnerable to manipulations or sudden liquidity crashes.
這些數字顯示出很大的投機興趣,但同時也集中在一些交流上,這可能會使市場容易受到操縱或突然的流動性崩潰。
Two Possible Scenarios for TRUMP Coin
特朗普硬幣的兩種可能的情況
Bullish Scenario: electoral hype and new speculative wave
看漲情景:選舉炒作和新的投機浪潮
In the event that Donald Trump should increase his media or political visibility — for example, by officially running in the next presidential elections — the TRUMP Coin could benefit from renewed enthusiasm from the community.
如果唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)應該提高媒體或政治知名度(例如,通過正式參加下一次總統選舉),特朗普硬幣可能會受益於社區的新熱情。
In this scenario:
在這種情況下:
However, it is important to remember that this scenario strongly depends on factors external to the crypto market, such as political and media events.
但是,重要的是要記住,這種情況在很大程度上取決於加密市場外部的因素,例如政治和媒體事件。
Return to Reality
返回現實
On the other hand, a bear scenario could materialize just as quickly. The foundations of the project remain fragile, and the narrative could run out once the speculative wave ends.
另一方面,熊場景可以同樣快地實現。該項目的基礎仍然脆弱,一旦投機浪潮結束,敘述可能會用盡。
In a bear scenario:
在熊場景中:
Furthermore, a lack of updates or a clear roadmap from the token creators could also cause small holders to lose confidence.
此外,缺乏更新或代幣創建者的明確路線圖也可能導緻小持有人失去信心。
TRUMP Coin represents one of the most emblematic cases of the link between political narrative, pop culture, and speculative markets. The high volatility, liquidation dynamics, and the enormous disparity between total supply and circulating supply suggest caution, especially for those who are not very experienced with derivative instruments.
特朗普硬幣是政治敘事,流行文化和投機市場之間聯繫的最具象徵意義的案例之一。高波動性,清算動力學以及總供應和循環供應之間的巨大差異表明,特別是對於那些對衍生工具不太經驗的人。
We cannot know for certain what the future of the token will be, but the data is clear: TRUMP Coin is a high-risk and high-volatility asset, whose fortune will depend more on the political and social context than on technological factors.
我們無法確定代幣的未來將是什麼,但是數據很明確:特朗普硬幣是一種高風險和高揮發性的資產,其財富將更多地依賴於政治和社會背景而不是技術因素。
As always, it is important to observe the data, analyze the fundamentals (when present), and not
與往常一樣,觀察數據,分析基本原理(當下)非常重要,而不是
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