現在可能是購買比特幣的最佳時機（BTC 0.26％）

對於許多投資者來說，這似乎是投資比特幣的最糟糕的時間（BTC 0.26％）。畢竟，比特幣現在比一月份的109,000美元的歷史最高點下降了近25％。

For many investors, this might seem like the worst possible time to invest in Bitcoin (BTC 0.26%). After all, Bitcoin is now down nearly 25% from an all-time high of $109,000 in January. And tariff uncertainty and market volatility will continue to weigh heavily on the crypto market for the foreseeable future.

對於許多投資者來說，這似乎是投資比特幣的最糟糕的時間（BTC 0.26％）。畢竟，比特幣現在比一月份的109,000美元的歷史最高點下降了近25％。在可預見的將來，關稅不確定性和市場波動將繼續在加密貨幣市場上重大壓力。

But all is not lost. In fact, if history is any guide, now might be the best possible time to add to your Bitcoin position.

但是一切都沒有丟失。實際上，如果歷史記錄是任何指南，現在可能是添加比特幣位置的最佳時間。

Here's why.

這就是原因。

Bitcoin as a store of value

比特幣作為價值存儲

It's not an understatement to say that, since President Donald Trump announced Liberation Day on April 2, the global financial markets have turned upside down. Even President Trump admits that investors are getting a little "yippy."

說，自從唐納德·特朗普總統於4月2日宣布解放日以來，全球金融市場已經顛倒了。甚至特朗普總統也承認投資者有些“ Yippy”。

Iconic American tech stocks have lost trillions of dollars in market value. The U.S. dollar is now trading at its lowest level in three years. The threat of a global trade war involving China has analysts frantically revising their forecasts for every single stock in the S&P 500.

標誌性的美國科技股損失了數万億美元的市場價值。美元現在在三年內達到其最低水平的交易。涉及中國的全球貿易戰爭的威脅使分析師瘋狂地修改了他們對標準普爾500指數中每一種股票的預測。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Amid all this market chaos, Bitcoin could become a safe haven asset and a store of value. That is the scenario that Bitcoin enthusiasts have been talking about for more than a decade now. As they see it, Bitcoin will begin to see record inflows if nations around the world decide to follow through on their "Sell America" promises.

在所有這些市場混亂中，比特幣可能成為避風港的資產和價值存儲。這就是比特幣愛好者一直在談論十多年來的情況。正如他們所看到的，如果世界各地的國家決定遵循其“賣出美國”承諾，比特幣將開始看到記錄流入。

If money is no longer flowing into U.S. government debt or dollar-denominated assets (such as U.S. stocks), where is all that money going to go? The obvious, no-brainer answer is gold. And that's where things get interesting, because Bitcoin is often described as "digital gold," due to its inherent scarcity and disinflationary properties. So, while the lion's share of the money might flow into physical gold, another portion could flow into "digital gold."

如果錢不再流向美國政府債務或以美元計價的資產（例如美國股票），那麼這一切將要去哪裡？顯而易見的，不費吹灰之力的答案是黃金。這就是事物變得有趣的地方，因為比特幣通常被描述為“數字黃金”，因為它固有的稀缺性和消除性能。因此，儘管獅子的份額可能會流向實物黃金，但另一部分可能流入“數字黃金”。

That's why I'm keeping a close eye on investor inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. These numbers are reported on a regular basis, and it's one of the best ways to tell if the "Bitcoin as a store of value" argument is resonating with investors. If record-high Bitcoin ETF outflows in Q1 suddenly become record Bitcoin ETF inflows in Q2, then you'll know that investors are beginning to view Bitcoin the same way they view gold.

這就是為什麼我密切關注投資者流入現貨比特幣ETF的原因。這些數字是定期報告的，這是判斷“比特幣作為價值存儲”論點是否引起投資者共鳴的最佳方法之一。如果第1季度的創紀錄的比特幣ETF流出突然成為Q2中創紀錄的比特幣ETF流入，那麼您將會知道投資者開始像看黃金一樣觀看比特幣。

Bitcoin's historical track record

比特幣的歷史記錄

Even though Bitcoin is significantly off its January highs, it still trades at a price of $83,500 and is only down 10% for the year. Keep in mind: Bitcoin was trading for just $70,000 on Election Day. So, over the past six months, Bitcoin is up nearly 20%. That's not quite the massive "Trump Rally" everyone expected, but it's still a nice bump.

即使比特幣顯著偏離了1月的高點，但它仍然以83,500美元的價格交易，當年只下降了10％。請記住：選舉日比特幣的交易僅為70,000美元。因此，在過去的六個月中，比特幣上漲了近20％。這並不是每個人都期望的巨大“特朗普集會”，但這仍然是一個不錯的顛簸。

But I get it -- Bitcoin's recent performance over the past few months has been disappointing, and at times, heartbreaking. Bitcoin started the year with so much promise and so much fanfare, and now it looks like it might become collateral damage in a global trade war.

但是我明白了 - 比特幣在過去幾個月中最近的表現令人失望，有時令人心碎。比特幣以如此多的希望和如此大的大張旗鼓開始，現在看來它可能會成為全球貿易戰的附帶損害。

If it's any solace, a 25% downturn in the price of Bitcoin is nothing new. Bitcoin is famous for its volatility. It's capable of massive spikes on the way up, as well as massive spikes on the way down. Over its 15-year history, it has actually experienced five distinct periods when it has lost 75% or more of its value.

如果有任何慰藉，比特幣的價格下降了25％，這並不是什麼新鮮事物。比特幣以波動而聞名。它在上升的途中有大量的尖峰，並在下降的路上進行了巨大的尖峰。在其15年的歷史中，它實際上經歷了五個不同的時期，當時它損失了75％或更多的價值。

But you know what? Each time, it has bounced back, better than before. After Bitcoin collapsed in value by 65% in 2022, it responded with triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024. In fact, in both years, it was the best-performing asset in the world, and it wasn't even close.

但是你知道嗎？每次，它都會反彈，比以前更好。在比特幣在2022年的價值下降了65％之後，它在2023年和2024年以三位數的回報做出了反應。實際上，這兩年來，它是世界上表現最佳的資產，而且甚至還沒有收到。

Should you buy Bitcoin?

你應該買比特幣嗎？

Historical performance, of course, is no guarantee of future performance. But it does suggest that Bitcoin is far more resilient than many people assume. As long as you take a long-term perspective, Bitcoin could be one of the best investments you ever make.

當然，歷史表現並不能保證未來的表現。但這確實表明比特幣比許多人想像的要彈性要彈性要高得多。只要您有長期的觀點，比特幣可能是您做出的最好的投資之一。

Throughout April, market analysts on CNBC have been commenting on how retail investors have been willing to "buy the dip." Maybe we're all simply in denial. But it seems almost impossible that the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have been crushed the way they have, and that Bitcoin was at one time perilously close to dropping below $70,000.

在整個4月，有關CNBC的市場分析師一直在評論零售投資者如何願意“購買蘸醬”。也許我們都只是否認。但是，“宏偉的七個”股票幾乎不可能像他們的方式一樣被壓碎了，而且比特幣一次危險地跌至70,000美元以下。

However, if there's one asset that was purpose-built for a volatile world, it's Bitcoin. It was created in response to the global financial crisis of 2008. As a result, I'm going to do what Bitcoin investors have been doing for more than a decade.

但是，如果有一個對於動蕩的世界是專門建造的，那就是比特幣。它是為了應對2008年全球金融危機而創建的。因此，我將做比特幣投資者在十多年來一直在做的事情。

Yes, I'm

是的，我