關稅在黃金和加密貨幣市場中引發不確定性

在美國前總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近宣布關稅之後，加密貨幣和黃金市場面臨著不確定性的增強。

Following the announcement of tariffs by former U.S. President Donald Trump, both the cryptocurrency and gold markets have experienced heightened uncertainty. This development has sparked concerns among investors, as they evaluate how digital assets and traditional safe havens will respond to the changing economic landscape. As global financial markets remain on high alert, will Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies face a downturn, or will they continue to assert their role as digital gold in times of economic stress?

在美國前總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布關稅之後，加密貨幣和黃金市場的不確定性都增加了。這一發展引發了投資者的關注，因為他們評估了數字資產和傳統的避風港將如何應對不斷變化的經濟格局。隨著全球金融市場仍處於高度戒備狀態，比特幣和其他加密貨幣將面臨低迷，還是他們會繼續在經濟壓力時繼續主張自己作為數字黃金的角色？

The Impact of Tariffs on the Global Economy

關稅對全球經濟的影響

On February 2, 2025, the United States imposed a new round of tariffs, placing a 25% tax on steel and aluminum imports. This move is part of Trump’s broader strategy to protect domestic industries and reduce dependence on foreign manufacturing. While proponents argue that these measures will strengthen the U.S. economy, critics warn of potential trade wars, inflationary pressures, and negative consequences for financial markets.

2025年2月2日，美國對鋼和鋁進口徵收25％的稅率。這一舉動是特朗普保護國內行業和減少對外國製造業的依賴的更廣泛戰略的一部分。支持者認為，這些措施將加強美國的經濟，但批評家警告潛在的貿易戰，通貨膨脹壓力和對金融市場的負面影響。

Tariffs generally lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, as import taxes get passed down the supply chain. In response, countries targeted by these tariffs may retaliate with their own restrictions, escalating tensions and disrupting global trade. This uncertainty has pushed investors to seek safety in traditional hedges, such as gold, while raising questions about Bitcoin’s ability to function as a store of value in times of crisis.

隨著進口稅將供應鏈傳遞，關稅通常會導致消費者和企業的成本更高。作為回應，這些關稅針對的國家可能會以自己的限制，加劇緊張局勢並破壞全球貿易。這種不確定性促使投資者在傳統樹籬（例如黃金）中尋求安全性，同時提出了有關比特幣在危機時期充當價值存儲的能力的問題。

Gold Surges to Record Highs

黃金飆升以記錄高點

Gold, a historically trusted safe-haven asset, has responded positively to the tariff announcement. On February 11, 2025, spot gold prices reached an all-time high of $2,942.70 per ounce. This surge reflects investors’ increasing preference for stability amid economic turmoil. Gold has long been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, and its recent gains reaffirm this reputation.

歷史上值得信賴的安全資產Gold對關稅宣布做出了積極回應。 2025年2月11日，現貨黃金價格達到每盎司2,942.70美元的歷史最高點。這次激增反映了投資者在經濟動盪和經濟動盪中對穩定性的偏好。長期以來，黃金一直被視為抵制通貨膨脹和地緣政治風險的對沖，其最近的收益重申了這一聲譽。

Analysts predict that gold’s bullish trend could continue, with some forecasting prices exceeding $3,000 per ounce if trade tensions persist. The metal's performance suggests that traditional investors still prioritize physical assets over digital alternatives like Bitcoin when economic conditions become uncertain.

分析師預測，如果貿易緊張局勢持續存在，黃金的看漲趨勢可能會持續下去，一些預測價格超過每盎司3,000美元。金屬的性能表明，當經濟狀況不確定時，傳統投資者仍然將物理資產優先於比特幣等數字替代品。

Bitcoin’s Price Decline

比特幣的價格下跌

In contrast to gold’s strong performance, Bitcoin has struggled in the wake of Trump’s tariff announcement. The leading cryptocurrency saw its price drop to a three-week low of $91,441.89, marking a 6.2% decline in a single day. This downturn highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing battle to establish itself as a reliable safe-haven asset comparable to gold.

與Gold的出色表現相反，在特朗普的關稅宣布之後，比特幣一直在掙扎。領先的加密貨幣的價格下跌至三週低點91,441.89美元，這是一天中下降6.2％。低迷強調了比特幣正在進行的戰鬥，以確立與黃金相當的可靠的安全資產。

Bitcoin’s volatility remains a key concern for institutional investors, many of whom prefer the stability of traditional assets. While Bitcoin has been labeled “digital gold” due to its finite supply and decentralized nature, its short-term price movements still exhibit characteristics of a speculative investment rather than a stable store of value.

比特幣的波動仍然是機構投資者的關鍵問題，其中許多人更喜歡傳統資產的穩定性。由於比特幣由於其有限的供應和分散性的性質而被標記為“數字黃金”，但其短期價格變動仍然具有投機性投資的特徵，而不是穩定的價值存儲。

How the Stronger Dollar Affects Crypto

較強大的美元如何影響加密貨幣

One factor contributing to Bitcoin’s decline is the strengthening U.S. dollar. Tariff-induced inflation expectations have led investors to anticipate a more aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. As a result, the dollar has gained value, making riskier assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive.

導致比特幣下降的一個因素是增強美元。關稅引起的通貨膨脹預期使投資者預計美聯儲采取了更具侵略性的貨幣政策。結果，美元獲得了價值，使諸如加密貨幣之類的風險資產降低了。

Historically, Bitcoin’s price has had an inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. When the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin tends to face downward pressure, as investors move toward traditional financial instruments. The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin will need to overcome significant headwinds to maintain its bullish momentum.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格與美元有反相關。當美元加強時，隨著投資者向傳統金融工具邁進，比特幣傾向於面對向下壓力。當前的市場動態表明，比特幣將需要克服重大的逆風以維持其看漲的勢頭。

Institutional Sentiment and Market Reactions

機構情緒和市場反應

Institutional investors have been closely monitoring Bitcoin’s reaction to the tariff announcement. While some firms remain bullish on long-term adoption, others have taken a more cautious approach, adjusting their portfolios to account for market volatility. Hedge funds and asset managers have reportedly increased their gold holdings while reducing exposure to cryptocurrencies, signaling a shift in sentiment.

機構投資者一直在密切監視比特幣對關稅公告的反應。儘管一些公司對長期採用仍然看好，但其他公司採取了更加謹慎的態度，調整了其投資組合以說明市場波動。據報導，對沖基金和資產經理已經增加了黃金持有量，同時減少了加密貨幣的暴露，這表明情緒發生了變化。

Additionally, regulatory concerns continue to weigh on Bitcoin’s price. Governments around the world are implementing stricter oversight of digital assets, further complicating the investment landscape. The uncertain regulatory environment may discourage new entrants from adopting Bitcoin as a primary store of value.

此外，監管問題繼續對比特幣的價格進行權衡。全球各國政府正在實施對數字資產的嚴格監督，這使投資格局更加複雜。不確定的監管環境可能會阻止新進入者採用比特幣作為價值的主要存儲。

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Ongoing Debate

比特幣與黃金：正在進行的辯論

The debate over whether Bitcoin can replace gold as a safe-haven asset remains unresolved. While Bitcoin offers advantages such as digital portability and censorship resistance, gold’s historical track record gives it an edge in times of crisis. Many investors view Bitcoin as a complementary asset rather than a direct replacement for gold.

關於比特幣是否可以替代黃金作為避風港資產的辯論仍未解決。儘管比特幣提供了數字可移植性和抵抗性的優勢，但Gold的歷史記錄使其在危機時期具有優勢。許多投資者將比特幣視為補充資產，而不是直接替代黃金。

In times of economic uncertainty, gold’s physical nature provides reassurance to conservative investors. Central banks also continue to accumulate gold reserves, reinforcing its status as a trusted hedge. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s ability to gain mainstream acceptance as a global store of value is still being tested.

在經濟不確定性時期，黃金的身體性質為保守的投資者提供了保證。中央銀行還繼續積累黃金儲備，增強其作為可信賴的對沖的地位。同時，比特幣獲得主流接受的能力仍在測試全球價值存儲中。

Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Future

比特幣未來的潛在方案

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will depend on several factors. If the U.S. and China engage in a prolonged trade war, Bitcoin may experience increased demand as an alternative safe-haven asset. However, if the dollar strengthens rapidly or regulatory pressures intensify, Bitcoin could face challenges in maintaining its recent gains.

展望未來，比特幣的價格軌跡將取決於幾個因素。如果美國和中國進行長時間的貿易戰爭，比特幣可能會增加需求，這是另一種避風港資產。但是，如果美元迅速增強或加劇監管壓力，比特幣可能面臨保持其最近收益的挑戰。

Ultimately, the cryptocurrency

最終，加密貨幣