外面說話

我記得在除夕的文章中，我們樂觀地說：我們繼續看好加密市場的整體表現

Source: Talking Outside the Lines

資料來源：外面說話

I remember in the New Year's Eve article, we optimistically stated: we continue to be bullish on the overall performance of the crypto market in the first quarter of this year. If no black swan events occur, we might see a good market in February, and possibly Bitcoin reaching 110,000.

我記得在除夕篇文章中，我們樂觀地說：我們繼續對今年第一季度加密市場的整體業績看漲。如果沒有發生黑天鵝事件，我們可能會在二月份看到一個好的市場，可能的比特幣達到110,000。

However, the reality is that we are facing Trump's tariff policies, a $1.5 billion hacking incident, the Argentine president's LIBRA token event… which has triggered a large-scale liquidation in the market. This further confirms what we often say: the market is unpredictable, we cannot control the market, the only thing we can control is our own positions.

但是，現實情況是，我們面臨特朗普的關稅政策，15億美元的黑客事件，阿根廷總統的天秤座代幣活動……這引發了市場上的大規模清算。這進一步證實了我們經常說的：市場是不可預測的，我們無法控制市場，我們唯一可以控制的是我們自己的立場。

Looking back at the FTX collapse in November 2022, the fear and greed index was only around 20 at that time, while the recent liquidation caused the fear and greed index to drop to 10, the lowest level since the bear market of 2022, with people's emotions shifting to extreme panic at an astonishing speed. As shown in the figure below.

回顧2022年11月的FTX崩潰，恐懼和貪婪指數當時只有20個左右，而最近的清算導致恐懼和貪婪指數降至10，這是自2022年熊市以來的最低水平，人們的情緒以驚人的速度轉移到極端的恐慌。如下圖所示。

But for those who manage their positions well, encountering such market conditions can also be a good opportunity, as the occurrence of such extreme market conditions seems to indicate that we may have approached a local bottom of the phase.

但是，對於那些很好地管理自己的職位的人來說，遇到這種市場狀況也可能是一個很好的機會，因為這種極端市場狀況的發生似乎表明我們可能已經接近了階段的當地底部。

1. What should you do during large market fluctuations?

1。在大型市場波動中該怎麼辦？

At this stage, we may need to pay more attention to factors such as policies and capital flows. For example:

在此階段，我們可能需要更多地關注政策和資本流量等因素。例如：

If the Trump administration continues to announce new tariff policies in the coming weeks, it may continue to exert short-term selling pressure on the market.

如果特朗普政府在未來幾週內繼續宣布新的關稅政策，則可能會繼續向市場施加短期銷售壓力。

If the situation remains unclear, there may be continued outflows, which would further negatively impact market sentiment. If inflows start to occur again, it could be a relatively good short-term signal.

如果情況尚不清楚，可能會有持續的流出，這將進一步對市場情緒產生負面影響。如果流入再次發生，則可能是一個相對良好的短期信號。

In terms of specific position management, we can take this opportunity to make some new optimizations. For example:

在特定的職位管理方面，我們可以藉此機會進行一些新的優化。例如：

1) Continue to optimize your portfolio

1）繼續優化您的投資組合

If you are not a short-term trading expert, then continue to hold your Bitcoin and do not easily give up your chips. At the same time, you can take necessary profits based on your holding cost and target (the old saying: buy in batches, sell in batches).

如果您不是短期交易專家，請繼續握住比特幣，不要輕易放棄籌碼。同時，您可以根據自己的持有成本和目標獲得必要的利潤（老話：分批購買，分批賣出）。

If your risk tolerance is relatively low, you can continue to reduce your altcoin holdings, especially those without any bullish catalysts and weak rebounds. You should strictly follow your risk preferences for stop-loss or take-profit operations, and do not hold onto losing positions. Of course, if you have already strictly taken profits and are optimistic about a particular altcoin you bought, then you can continue to hold those altcoins.

如果您的風險承受能力相對較低，則可以繼續減少山寨幣持有量，尤其是那些沒有任何看漲催化劑和較弱的籃板的持有量。您應該嚴格遵循對停止損失或替代業務運營的風險偏好，並且不堅持失去職位。當然，如果您已經嚴格拿走了利潤並且對購買的特定山寨幣感到樂觀，那麼您可以繼續持有這些altcoins。

If your risk tolerance is relatively high and you still enjoy researching and buying altcoins, then focus on those relatively strong altcoins. For example, if BTC is falling, it doesn't fall or only falls slightly, and it rebounds first after BTC stops falling—these are relatively strong altcoins. Try not to buy those that have fallen significantly and you feel have hit the bottom or are very cheap. Even if you are speculating, do not bet on weak projects, and think carefully about your reasons for buying. The simplest idea is that if you cannot quickly list three reasons for buying it within 10 minutes, then do not buy it.

如果您的風險承受能力相對較高，並且您仍然喜歡研究和購買Altcoins，則將專注於那些相對強大的山寨幣。例如，如果BTC下降，它不會下降或僅略微下降，並且在BTC停止掉落後首先反彈，這些是相對強大的Altcoins。盡量不要購買那些大量跌倒的人，您會覺得自己已經達到了最低點或非常便宜。即使您在猜測，也不要押注薄弱的項目，並仔細考慮購買原因。最簡單的想法是，如果您無法快速列出在10分鐘內購買的三個原因，請不要購買。

Also, continue to keep a certain amount of liquid funds (USDT/USDC) to deal with potential new black swan events.

此外，繼續保留一定數量的流動資金（USDT/USDC）來應對潛在的新黑天鵝事件。

2) Continue to learn

2）繼續學習

Reduce the time spent staring at the market and consider doing things you wanted to do before but didn't have the energy for, or things you are interested in. Staring at the market does not bring direct results; just set up some necessary monitoring alerts. If staring at the K-line could move the market with your thoughts, I would definitely stay awake 24 hours a day to watch it.

減少盯著市場所花費的時間，並考慮做您以前想做的事情，但沒有精力或您感興趣的事情。盯著市場不會帶來直接的結果；只需設置一些必要的監視警報即可。如果盯著K-Line可以以您的想法轉移市場，那麼我肯定每天24小時保持清醒以觀看它。

Alternatively, you can consider continuously utilizing your existing funds through various means. For example, you can pursue better investment returns with idle funds (if participating in on-chain stablecoin investments, be mindful of project risks; if participating in exchange stablecoin investments, pay attention to lock-up periods and do not lock your assets), as shown in the figure below.

另外，您可以考慮通過各種方式不斷利用現有資金。例如，您可以通過空閒資金進行更好的投資回報（如果參與鏈穩定股票投資，請注意項目風險；如果參與Exchange Stablecoin投資，請注意鎖定期限並不要鎖定您的資產），如下圖所示。

Additionally, you can use tools like Rootdata to find and research potential airdrop projects, engage in arbitrage operations using funding rates, etc. In short, use methods you like or understand to keep your investment portfolio growing continuously. Sometimes, small amounts of money are still money; do not always fantasize about making $1 million overnight and look down on various $1,000 opportunities.

此外，您可以使用rootdata之類的工具來查找和研究潛在的空投項目，使用資金率等進行套利操作。簡而言之，使用您喜歡或理解的方法來保持投資組合不斷增長。有時，少量的錢仍然是金錢。並不總是幻想一夜之間賺100萬美元，並看不起各種$ 1,000的機會。

Moreover, it is not only in a bull market that one can make money. In fact, if we ignore the concepts of bull and bear markets, there are always various opportunities to make money in the market; it is just a matter of whether you can discover, understand, execute well,

此外，不僅在牛市中，人們都可以賺錢。實際上，如果我們忽略牛市和熊市的概念，總是會有各種機會在市場上賺錢。這只是您是否可以發現，理解，執行良好的問題，