談李及其他：川普就職前的 ETH FUD、市場前景等

昨晚（1月13日），不知道有多少人失眠了。比特幣跌至89,000美元左右，似乎突破了許多人的預期

As Bitcoin's price continues to fluctuate dramatically, retail investors are panic-selling while institutions like MicroStrategy are accumulating more Bitcoins. This stark contrast in behavior highlights the influence of macroeconomic factors on the market.

隨著比特幣價格持續大幅波動，散戶投資者紛紛恐慌拋售，而 MicroStrategy 等機構則在累積更多比特幣。這種鮮明的對比凸顯了宏觀經濟因素對市場的影響。

Meanwhile, as Trump's inauguration approaches, some people speculate about possible market manipulations to create a smooth transition during this period.

同時，隨著川普就職典禮的臨近，有些人猜測可能會透過市場操縱來實現這段時期的平穩過渡。

In the previous Talking About Li and Beyond article (January 13), we mainly discussed exiting a bull market and shared how to design your own exit indicators. The point of the article remains: we should strive to form and establish our own trading systems, rather than being swayed by news and emotions. Trading also requires consideration of cycles; if your goal is 10 or 20 years into the future, then Bitcoin at this moment is not expensive no matter when you buy.

在先前《談論李與超越》的文章（1月13日）中，我們主要討論了退出牛市並分享如何設計自己的退出指標。文章的要點仍然是：我們應該努力形成和建立自己的交易系統，而不是被新聞和情緒所左右。交易還需要考慮週期；如果你的目標是未來10年或20年，那麼無論你什麼時候購買，目前的比特幣都不貴。

Having discussed the basic market conditions, let's continue to talk about Ethereum, which is currently being FUDed daily.

討論完基本的市場狀況，我們繼續談談目前每天都在 FUD 的以太坊。

In previous Talking About Li and Beyond articles on the topic of Ethereum, we mentioned that factors such as capital inflow, continuous accumulation by whales, and ETH staking would collectively support the price outlook for ETH. So, let's continue to explore a few dimensions based on this logic.

在先前關於以太坊主題的《談李與超越》文章中，我們提到資金流入、鯨魚持續累積、ETH 質押等因素將共同支撐 ETH 的價格前景。那麼，我們就根據這個邏輯繼續探索幾個維度。

First, let's look at the inflow/outflow situation of ETH ETFs in recent days. Since last week (January 7), ETH ETFs have seen continuous capital outflows, which is certainly not favorable for Ethereum's price performance from a sentiment perspective.

首先我們來看看近幾日ETH ETF的流入/流出情況。自上週（1月7日）以來，ETH ETF出現了持續的資金流出，從情緒角度來看，這肯定不利於以太坊的價格表現。

Next, let's examine the K-line trend. Currently, the price has dropped close to the 0.382 level, and the weekly MACD has begun to show a crossover, indicating that short-term fluctuations are likely to continue.

接下來我們來看看K線走勢。目前價格已跌至0.382水平附近，週線MACD已經開始出現交叉，顯示短期波動可能會持續。

Furthermore, let's check the ETH balance on exchanges. From on-chain data, the amount of ETH stored on trading platforms has entered a phase of decline again, which may reflect some funds' optimistic views and confidence in Ethereum's future.

此外，讓我們檢查一下交易所的 ETH 餘額。從鏈上數據來看，交易平台儲存的ETH數量再次進入下降階段，這可能反映出一些資金對以太坊未來的樂觀看法和信心。

In summary, at this critical position and time point, there seem to be two distinct camps regarding Ethereum: one camp continues to be optimistic about Ethereum's future performance, believing this position is an opportunity to accumulate more. The other camp believes that Ethereum's current bull market is completely over, and it would be better to clear out Ethereum as soon as possible.

綜上所述，在這個關鍵位置和時間點，對於以太坊似乎存在著兩個截然不同的陣營：一個陣營繼續看好以太坊未來的表現，認為這個位置是一個累積更多的機會。另一個陣營則認為，以太坊目前的牛市已經徹底結束，最好盡快出清以太坊。

As for how you view and choose, we won't interfere or provide any specific trading advice, but if you often read articles from Talking About Li and Beyond, you should know our answer.

至於你如何看待和選擇，我們不會干涉，也不會提供任何具體的交易建議，但如果你經常閱讀《談李及彼岸》的文章，你應該知道我們的答案。

Additionally, from a fundamental perspective, Ethereum remains a cornerstone of the DeFi ecosystem, accounting for about 82% of TVL.

此外，從基本面來看，以太坊仍然是 DeFi 生態系統的基石，約佔 TVL 的 82%。

However, currently, Ethereum is indeed lagging behind ecosystems like Solana and Sui in terms of Daily Active Addresses, Daily Transactions, and Dex Volumes.

然而，目前以太坊在每日活躍地址、每日交易和 Dex 交易量方面確實落後於 Solana 和 Sui 等生態系統。

Moreover, the deflationary effect that many anticipated after Ethereum's upgrade does not seem to be significant at this point. Meanwhile, with the increasing popularity of L2, there are concerns that Ethereum may slowly fall into a predicament where the ecosystem remains prosperous but the value realization of its tokens continues to decline.

此外，許多人預期的以太坊升級後的通貨緊縮效應目前似乎並不顯著。同時，隨著L2的日益普及，人們擔心以太坊可能會慢慢陷入生態繁榮但代幣價值變現持續下降的困境。

However, it cannot be denied that ETH remains second only to BTC. As long as Ethereum can find a new balance in L2 expansion and other narrative waves, the price will naturally not be an issue. Let's allow the bullets to fly a bit longer.

然而，不可否認的是，ETH 仍然僅次於 BTC。只要以太坊能夠在L2擴容等敘事浪潮中找到新的平衡，價格自然就不是問題。讓我們讓子彈飛得更久一點。

Or to put it more bluntly, the price of ETH in this bull market is unlikely to stop around $4,000. Here, I directly quote a line from our previous article: as a cryptocurrency that does not face unlocking and miner sell pressure, a coin that is still the king of altcoins, a coin that remains the largest crypto ecosystem, and the only cryptocurrency besides BTC that has been approved for an ETF… we may need to maintain some patience with it.

或者更直白地說，本次牛市中的 ETH 價格不太可能停留在 4000 美元左右。在這裡，我直接引用我們上一篇文章中的一句話：作為一種不面臨解鎖和礦工拋售壓力的加密貨幣，仍然是山寨幣之王，仍然是最大的加密生態系統的幣，也是除BTC以外唯一的加密貨幣已經被批准用於 ETF……我們可能需要對其保持一定的耐心。