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從歷史上看,這種活動伴隨著看跌的價格走勢,因此我們可能會看到價格下跌的開始。
United States exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the price of spot Bitcoin (BTC) have garnered a large amount of inflows recently, concerning analysts who believe it could indicate an upcoming downturn in the price of Bitcoin.
追蹤現貨比特幣(BTC)價格的美國交易所交易基金(ETF)最近吸引了大量資金流入,分析師認為這可能表明比特幣價格即將下跌。
“This kind of activity has historically been followed by bearish price movements, and we may be seeing the beginning of a price dip as a result,” Shubh Varma, CEO and co-founder of Hyblock Capital, wrote in an Oct. 23 analyst note covered by Cointelegraph.
Hyblock Capital 執行長兼聯合創辦人Shubh Varma 在10 月23 日的分析師報告中寫道:「從歷史上看,這種活動往往伴隨著看跌的價格走勢,因此我們可能會看到價格下跌的開始。
Large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETF spark concern
大量資金流入現貨比特幣 ETF 引發擔憂
Varma noted that “there have been unusually large BTC ETF inflows over the past several days, with inflows exceeding $300 million on multiple occasions.”
Varma 指出,“過去幾天,BTC ETF 資金流入異常大,流入金額多次超過 3 億美元。”
Between Oct. 11 and 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a seven-day streak of inflows totaling around $2.68 billion before seeing an outflow day of $79.1 million on Oct. 22, according to Farside data.
根據 Farside 的數據,10 月 11 日至 21 日期間,現貨比特幣 ETF 連續 7 天流入,總額約為 26.8 億美元,然後在 10 月 22 日流出 7,910 萬美元。
Oct. 23 began recording inflows again, with total daily inflows of $192.4 million.
10 月 23 日再次開始錄得資金流入,每日總流入額為 1.924 億美元。
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative flows of around $21.41 billion since the January launch. Source: Farside
自 1 月推出以來,現貨比特幣 ETF 的累積流量已達到約 214.1 億美元。來源:遠方
The last time there were “unusually” large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin dropped 13% around three weeks later.
上次「異常」大量資金流入現貨比特幣 ETF 時,比特幣價格在大約三週後下跌了 13%。
On June 4 and 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $886.6 million and $488.1 million, respectively, while Bitcoin traded between $68,800 and $70,000.
6 月 4 日和 5 日,現貨比特幣 ETF 分別流入 8.866 億美元和 4.881 億美元,而比特幣交易價格在 68,800 美元至 70,000 美元之間。
By June 25, just 20 days later, the price of Bitcoin had fallen to $60,266.
到 6 月 25 日,僅僅 20 天后,比特幣的價格就跌至 60,266 美元。
Related: Bitcoin’s repeating bearish engulfing trend and spot ETF outflows boost odds of sub-$60K BTC
相關:比特幣反覆出現的看跌吞沒趨勢和現貨 ETF 流出增加了 BTC 價格低於 6 萬美元的可能性
Analysts suggest ‘supply shock’ on the horizon
分析師暗示「供應衝擊」即將到來
Varma stated that if history does repeat and Bitcoin decreases, analysts will “want” to see “large outflows” in the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Varma表示,如果歷史真的重演並且比特幣下跌,分析師將「希望」看到現貨比特幣ETF「大量流出」。
However, other analysts believe the large amount of inflows may be a sign that a supply shock may be coming.
然而,其他分析師認為,大量資金流入可能是供應衝擊可能即將到來的跡象。
“This is fucked up. They are buying the ETF to try and keep the price of BTC up. We had a supply shock in March 2020 and price went up 5X. I wonder what happens next,” North Node Capital chief investment officer and Bitcoin advocate Pentosh1 wrote in an Oct. 23 X post.
「這太操蛋了。他們買 ETF 是為了維持 BTC 價格的上漲。 2020 年 3 月,我們遭遇了供應衝擊,價格上漲了 5 倍。我想知道接下來會發生什麼,」North Node Capital 首席投資長兼比特幣倡導者 Pentosh1 在 10 月 23 日的一篇文章中寫道。
Market analyst Anup Dhungana speculated that a “supply shock looms large.”
市場分析師阿努普·敦加納 (Anup Dhungana) 推測,「供應衝擊迫在眉睫」。
Meanwhile, data from crypto exchange Deribit shows that Bitcoin options traders are optimistic that the price of Bitcoin will reach around $80,000 by the end of November, just three weeks after the US presidential election.
同時,加密貨幣交易所 Deribit 的數據顯示,比特幣選擇權交易員樂觀地認為,到 11 月底,即美國總統大選後僅三週,比特幣的價格將達到 8 萬美元左右。
Magazine: The rise of Mert Mumtaz: ‘I probably FUD Solana the most out of anybody’
雜誌:默特·蒙塔茲 (Mert Mumtaz) 的崛起:“我可能是所有人中最對索拉納感到恐懼的”
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