Pal 預測 Solana 激增、週期中期崩盤迫在眉睫，加密貨幣夏季將延長至 25 年

在 Real Vision 財經播客的一集中，宏觀專家 Raoul Pal 概述了他的加密貨幣市場預測，其中包括 Solana (SOL) 價格大膽飆升至 1,000 美元，讓人想起以太坊 2021 年的上漲。他預計 2025 年之前將是“加密貨幣夏季”，但警告稱，由於比特幣減半事件，週期中期將出現 50% 以上的崩盤。 Pal 的多頭理由包括積極的宏觀環境、SEC 試圖減緩加密貨幣遷移以及山寨幣的優異表現，尤其是 SOL。不過，他指出了高通膨和市場操縱的風險，並強調了在市場疲軟時期購買的重要性。

Raoul Pal's Bullish and Bearish Crypto Outlook: Solana (SOL) Poised to Surge, Potential Mid-Cycle Crash Looms

Raoul Pal 對加密貨幣的看漲和看跌前景：Solana (SOL) 預計將飆升，潛在的周期中期崩盤迫在眉睫

Macroeconomic titan and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has unveiled his comprehensive bull and bear case for the cryptocurrency market, outlining a remarkable price prediction for Solana (SOL) that could propel the asset to $1,000.

宏觀經濟巨頭兼 Real Vision 首席執行官 Raoul Pal 公佈了他對加密貨幣市場的全面牛市和熊市案例，概述了 Solana (SOL) 的非凡價格預測，可能將該資產推升至 1,000 美元。

Solana's Potential to Soar

Solana 的潛力飆升

Drawing parallels with Ethereum's (ETH) meteoric rise during the previous bull cycle, Pal envisions SOL replicating its success, projecting a potential 45x gain from current prices. This would translate to a price target of approximately $500 for SOL.

與以太坊 (ETH) 在上一個牛市週期中的飛速上漲相比較，Pal 預計 SOL 會複製其成功，預計其潛在價格將比當前價格上漲 45 倍。這意味著 SOL 的目標價約為 500 美元。

However, Pal suggests that market dynamics could push SOL even higher, predicting a range of $500 to $1,000. A speculative bubble cycle could drive SOL towards $1,000, while a more subdued market trajectory could result in a price target of $500.

然而，Pal 表示，市場動態可能會推高 SOL 的價格，預計區間為 500 美元至 1,000 美元。投機泡沫週期可能會將 SOL 推向 1,000 美元，而更加疲軟的市場軌跡可能導致目標價為 500 美元。

Mid-Cycle Crash Risk

週期中期碰撞風險

While painting a bullish picture, Pal also acknowledges a potential mid-cycle downturn of over 50%, akin to the 40% plunge Bitcoin (BTC) experienced prior to the 2020 halving event. This sell-off would primarily impact retail investors, creating a window of opportunity for savvy investors to accumulate assets at a discount.

在描繪看漲景象的同時，帕爾也承認，週期中期可能會出現超過 50% 的下滑，類似於 2020 年減半事件之前比特幣 (BTC) 經歷的 40% 暴跌。這次拋售將主要影響散戶投資者，為精明的投資者以折扣價累積資產創造機會之窗。

Bull Market Longevity: Macro Summer Until 2025

牛市壽命：宏觀夏季至 2025 年

Pal dubs the current bull market "crypto summer," characterizing it as a period of sustained growth that will extend through 2025, punctuated by periodic pullbacks. He anticipates Bitcoin and altcoins maintaining their upward trajectory throughout this period, before a potential slowdown emerges in 2025.

Pal 將當前的牛市稱為“加密貨幣之夏”，將其描述為持續增長的時期，將持續到 2025 年，期間會出現週期性回調。他預計比特幣和山寨幣在此期間將保持上升趨勢，然後在 2025 年出現潛在放緩。

Ethereum vs. Solana: A Shifting Paradigm

以太坊 vs. Solana：轉變的範式

Pal expects ETH to outperform BTC in the later stages of the bull market, while SOL is poised to outpace both ETH and BTC, leading a charge of altcoins that could ignite a full-blown "meme coin season." This dynamic is attributed to increasing global liquidity and a robust business cycle.

Pal 預計 ETH 在多頭市場後期的表現將超過 BTC，而 SOL 則有望同時超過 ETH 和 BTC，引領山寨幣浪潮，可能引發全面的「模因幣季節」。這種動態歸因於全球流動性的增加和強勁的商業週期。

SEC Stance: Slowing Crypto Adoption, Not Banning It

SEC 立場：減緩加密貨幣的採用，而不是禁止它

Pal interprets the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) scrutiny of Ethereum as an attempt to regulate the rapid migration of capital into cryptocurrencies, rather than an outright ban. He suggests that the aim is to decelerate crypto's takeover rather than entirely suppress it. Nonetheless, Pal underscores the importance of a comprehensive regulatory framework for the long-term growth of the crypto market.

帕爾將美國證券交易委員會（SEC）對以太坊的審查解釋為試圖規範資本向加密貨幣的快速遷移，而不是完全禁止。他表示，此舉的目的是減緩加密貨幣的接管，而不是完全壓制它。儘管如此，帕爾強調了全面的監管框架對於加密貨幣市場長期成長的重要性。

Bear Case Considerations: Bitcoin ETF Inflows, Inflation, Market Manipulation

熊市考慮因素：比特幣 ETF 流入、通貨膨脹、市場操縱

Despite the bullish outlook, Pal highlights potential risks that could impact crypto markets. He cautions against overreliance on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and warns of the potential for outflows during the transition from "macro summer" to "macro fall." Additionally, high inflation and increased market manipulation remain concerns that investors should monitor.

儘管前景樂觀，但帕爾強調了可能影響加密貨幣市場的潛在風險。他警告不要過度依賴比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），並警告從「宏觀夏季」到「宏觀秋季」過渡期間可能出現資金外流。此外，高通膨和市場操縱加劇仍然是投資者應關注的問題。

Fear of Missing Out: A Double-Edged Sword

害怕錯過：一把雙面刃

Pal emphasizes the importance of contrarian investing, reminding investors to purchase assets when sentiment is bearish. He warns against chasing gains during market rallies or investing in speculative "shitcoins" instead of buying the dips.

帕爾強調逆向投資的重要性，提醒投資人在市場情緒看跌時購買資產。他警告不要在市場反彈期間追逐收益，也不要投資投機性“垃圾幣”，而不是逢低買入。

Emerging Trends: AI Bubble and Web3 Revolution

新興趨勢：AI 泡沫和 Web3 革命

Beyond SOL's price predictions, Pal has identified other notable trends in the crypto space:

除了 SOL 的價格預測之外，Pal 還發現了加密貨幣領域的其他顯著趨勢：

• AI Bubble: Pal anticipates a significant bubble in artificial intelligence (AI) technology, as its widespread adoption becomes imperative.
• Web3 Explosion: Pal predicts that Web3, primarily represented by applications built on Ethereum, will experience unprecedented growth, potentially 200 times its current valuation.

Conclusion

AI 泡沫：Pal 預計人工智慧(AI) 技術將出現重大泡沫，因為其廣泛採用勢在必行。Web3 爆炸：Pal 預測，主要以以太坊為代表的Web3 將經歷前所未有的成長，估值可能達到當前估值的200 倍。結論

Raoul Pal's comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for both bulls and bears in the crypto market. His bullish predictions for SOL and the overall crypto market offer hope for continued growth, while his cautious assessment of potential risks underscores the importance of a balanced and informed perspective.

Raoul Pal 的全面分析為加密貨幣市場的多頭和空頭提供了寶貴的見解。他對 SOL 和整個加密貨幣市場的樂觀預測為持續成長帶來了希望，而他對潛在風險的謹慎評估則強調了平衡和知情觀點的重要性。