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美國司法部就針對 NVIDIA 的調查發出傳票,擔心該公司可能會讓客戶的處境變得更加困難
After a shocking record-breaking drop by NVIDIA, some time has passed and data is starting to emerge on how it affected the market, as well as what other events may be related to it.
在 NVIDIA 創下令人震驚的創紀錄下跌之後,一段時間過去了,關於它如何影響市場以及可能與之相關的其他事件的數據開始浮出水面。
In particular, Tom Lee warns that we may see a 7% to 10% drop in the next few months, and the crypto market could be affected even more.
Tom Lee 特別警告說,未來幾個月我們可能會看到 7% 到 10% 的下跌,加密貨幣市場可能受到的影響更大。
At the same time, Mark Yusko shared a classic tactic of manipulating asset prices in the stock market and suggested that with the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs, it began to be applied to the crypto market.
同時,Mark Yusko分享了操縱股市資產價格的經典策略,並建議隨著比特幣ETF的到來,它開始應用於加密市場。
In particular, BlackRock and their Aladdin system theoretically have the greatest opportunity to practice this.
特別是貝萊德和他們的阿拉丁系統理論上最有機會實踐這一點。
Why Is NVIDIA’s Decline Bigger Than It Seems?
為什麼英偉達的跌幅比看起來更大?
The U.S. Department of Justice sent a subpoena in connection with an investigation against NVIDIA, fearing that the company could make it harder for customers to switch from customers to other GPU vendors, especially for AI.
美國司法部就針對 NVIDIA 的調查發出傳票,擔心該公司可能會讓客戶更難從客戶轉向其他 GPU 供應商,尤其是人工智慧領域。
This triggered a historic drop, causing the company to lose
這引發了歷史性的下跌,導致公司虧損
$300B, which is equal to the total capitalization of 474 companies in the SNP 500.
$300B,相當於蘇格蘭民族黨500強中474家公司的總資本。
Of course, this pulled down the entire stock market, and as a result, the U.S. stock market lost about $1T during the day, followed by the Japanese stock market.
當然,這拉低了整個股市,結果美國股市當天損失了約1T美元,日本股市緊追在後。
Tom Lee comments on the coming market declines:
湯姆李 (Tom Lee) 對即將到來的市場下跌的評論:
“Investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks. When markets were up seven of the eight months this year, we know it’s an incredibly strong market, but we also have the September [interest-rate] cut and we have the election – things that will get people nervous. I think in the next eight weeks, people will get a chance to buy. So I think it’s good to be cautious, but just [be] ready to buy that dip.”
“未來八週投資者應保持謹慎。當今年八個月中有七個月市場上漲時,我們知道這是一個令人難以置信的強勁市場,但我們也有九月份的[利率]下調和選舉——這些事情會讓人們感到緊張。我認為在接下來的八週內,人們將有機會購買。因此,我認為保持謹慎是好事,但要做好逢低買入的準備。
It’s worth remembering that historically September is the worst for the stock market, but November is one of the best, which is not a guarantee, but an obvious trend.
值得記住的是,歷史上 9 月是股市最糟糕的月份,但 11 月是最好的月份之一,這不是保證,而是明顯的趨勢。
This can be seen in the chart of the largest outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, which amounted to $287M, where first Fidelity, then GrayScale, but Blackrock still holds.
這可以從比特幣 ETF 最大流出量圖表中看出,流出金額達 2.87 億美元,其中首先是 Fidelity,然後是 GrayScale,但 Blackrock 仍然持有。
Why Is It Related to Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs?
為什麼它與比特幣和比特幣ETF有關?
In this context, there are very strong comments from Mark Yusko, which echo all the concerns of those who were initially skeptical about the intervention of institutions and funds in the crypto market.
在此背景下,Mark Yusko 發表了非常強烈的評論,這呼應了那些最初對機構和基金幹預加密貨幣市場持懷疑態度的人的所有擔憂。
In his opinion, these actors can manipulate the Bitcoin price by selling Bitcoin futures. This is a common tactic they use to manipulate stock market prices and now they can use it on Bitcoin. And it sounds convincing considering that for almost 200 days Bitcoin has remained in this range of $60K despite an unprecedented amount of positive news on its support and adaptation.
在他看來,這些行為者可以透過出售比特幣期貨來操縱比特幣價格。這是他們用來操縱股市價格的常見策略,現在他們可以在比特幣上使用它。考慮到比特幣近 200 天以來一直保持在 6 萬美元的區間,儘管關於其支持和適應的積極消息數量空前,這聽起來很有說服力。
Yusko said the following:
尤斯科說:
“Bitcoin ETF spot trading in itself is not a bad thing, because there is a good demand for it. But the problem is that the price is also affected by the market, is that we can see almost every day all these big drops from $1000 to $1500. How does that happen? Who’s selling? Nobody is selling. Nobody who owns Bitcoin on cold storage or balance sheet is selling. Nobody who holds ETFs is selling.
「比特幣ETF現貨交易本身並不是一件壞事,因為它有很好的需求。但問題是價格也受到市場的影響,我們幾乎每天都能看到從 1000 美元到 1500 美元的大幅下跌。這是怎麼發生的?誰在賣?沒人賣。沒有人在冷藏庫或資產負債表上擁有比特幣,而是在出售比特幣。持有 ETF 的人沒有人在出售。
It’s selling those futures and that changes the price. Because there’s a little bit of a catch to how ETFs work. ETFs don’t trade all day, they trade in a very small window at the end of the day, so it’s logical if you have a big order and you know about it and you’re Blackrock – you have to fulfill that order on Bitcoin.
它正在出售這些期貨,從而改變了價格。因為 ETF 的運作方式存在一些問題。 ETF 不會全天交易,它們在一天結束時會在一個非常小的窗口內進行交易,因此,如果您有一個大訂單並且您知道這一點並且您是貝萊德,那麼這是合乎邏輯的–您必須在比特幣上履行該訂單。
And you definitely don’t want the price to be high, you want the price to be low, so actually Blackrock may be selling from some other wallet, they may go sell Bitcoins on the futures market to drive the price down and buy them cheaper. This happens on Wall Street all the time with all assets and now we’re seeing it on Bitcoin”
而且你肯定不希望價格高,你希望價格低,所以實際上貝萊德可能會從其他錢包出售比特幣,他們可能會去期貨市場上出售比特幣,以壓低價格並以更便宜的價格購買它們。這種情況在華爾街的所有資產上一直在發生,現在我們在比特幣上也看到了這種情況”
More importantly, Blackrock created an AI-based trading software called Aladdin back in 1988. Since then its development has not stopped and Blackrock uses this tool for all their trades, probably for Bitcoin as well.
更重要的是,Blackrock 早在1988 年就創建了一款名為Aladdin 的基於人工智慧的交易軟體。也包括比特幣。
The most important is the coincidence of dates, and in particular, Coinbase, the exchange chosen by Blackrock as the custodian for the spot Bitcoin ETF provides access to crypto trading to Aladdin clients via Coinbase Prime from August 4, 2022.
最重要的是日期的巧合,特別是,貝萊德選擇 Coinbase 作為現貨比特幣 ETF 託管人的交易所,從 2022 年 8 月 4 日起,透過 Coinbase Prime 向 Aladdin 客戶提供加密貨幣交易。
And that’s one of the things that opponents of institutional intervention and fund participation have been warning about.
這是機構幹預和基金參與的反對者一直警告的事情之一。
Why Is This Potential Manipulation of Bitcoin Doomed?
為什麼這種潛在的比特幣操縱行為注定會失敗?
Of course, if it does happen, it is unlikely that manipulating the price will work forever, as demand for Bitcoin is growing rapidly.
當然,如果這種情況真的發生,操縱價格不太可能永遠有效,因為對比特幣的需求正在迅速增長。
This demand is largely due to the delay in lowering interest rates, the desire to de-dollarize and accumulate Bitcoin by
這種需求主要是由於延遲降低利率、去美元化和累積比特幣的願望所造成的。
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