NFL 選擇他們和倖存者池建議：第 1 週

2024 年 NFL 賽季終於拉開序幕，隨之而來的是一波興奮的浪潮。為期一季的奇幻選秀即將結束，現在每個人都將注意力轉向分差和倖存者池。每週，我們都會深入研究，找出選秀聯盟的最佳選擇，並制定出應對倖存者情勢的獲勝策略。

The 2024 NFL season is finally kicking off, bringing with it a wave of excitement and anticipation. Season-long fantasy drafts are nearing their conclusion, and now everyone's attention is shifting toward spreads and survivor pools. Each week, we'll be breaking down the slate to identify the best bets for pick'em leagues and outlining a winning strategy for navigating the survivor landscape.

2024 年 NFL 賽季終於拉開序幕，帶來了一波興奮和期待。長達一季的奇幻選秀即將結束，現在每個人的注意力都轉向了分佈和倖存者池。每週，我們都會對名單進行細分，以確定選秀聯盟的最佳選擇，並概述應對倖存者局面的獲勝策略。

The Chalk

粉筆

Many people get bogged down in the details when discussing pick'em pools, often losing sight of the bigger picture. While picking the right games is certainly important, the game theory aspect of these pools is often overlooked. Pick'em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about Xs and Os. Each week, we'll be analyzing how the public's picks are trending and using that insight to inform our decisions.

許多人在討論挑選池時陷入細節，往往忽略了大局。雖然選擇正確的遊戲固然重要，但這些池子的博弈論方面卻經常被忽略。選號池既關乎 X 和 Os，也關乎機率和策略。每週，我們都會分析公眾的選擇趨勢，並利用這些洞察來引導我們的決策。

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

卡羅萊納黑豹隊 @ 新奧爾良聖徒隊 (-4)

Public confidence in the Saints this week is driven more by Carolina's deficiencies than a resounding belief in New Orleans. The Saints are the stronger team overall, boasting a Top 10 defense that allowed just 19.2 points per game last season, compared to the Panthers, who were vulnerable in just about every way on defense. Derek Carr also provides a clear advantage at quarterback, capable of exploiting Carolina's lack of defensive pressure and playmaking ability. Betting trends also highlight the disparity, with over 90% of pick 'em bets favoring the Saints this week—a reflection of Carolina's struggles as they've failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.

本周公眾對聖徒隊的信心更多是由卡羅萊納的缺陷驅動的，而不是對新奧爾良的堅定信念。聖徒隊整體上是實力更強的球隊，他們的防守排名前十，上賽季場均只失分19.2分，而黑豹隊的防守在各方面都很脆弱。德里克卡爾在四分衛位置上也提供了明顯的優勢，能夠利用卡羅來納州缺乏防守壓力和組織能力的優勢。投注趨勢也突顯了這種差距，本週超過90% 的精選投注有利於聖徒隊，這反映了卡羅萊納隊的掙扎，因為他們在過去9 場客場比賽中的8 場都未能彌補客場劣勢。

This is not the week to go contrarian; there will be better opportunities to go against the grain later in the season.

這週不適合逆勢而行。在本賽季後期會有更好的機會逆向生長。

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

亞利桑那紅雀隊對陣布法羅比爾隊 (-6.5)

Public confidence in the Buffalo Bills this week against the Arizona Cardinals is rooted in a clear mismatch between the two teams. The Bills enter as the stronger squad with a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen, who is projected to outperform Kyler Murray in both passing and rushing. The Cardinals, coming off a poor season, continue to struggle defensively and face significant challenges on the road. We're in a similar spot here. Later in the year, when you're trying to catch up in pick 'em, maybe you take a flier on Arizona here but right now you want to go with the flow.

公眾對本週布法羅比爾隊對陣亞利桑那紅雀隊的信心源於兩支球隊之間明顯的不匹配。比爾隊以喬什·艾倫（Josh Allen）帶領的強大進攻陣容進入，預計他在傳球和衝球方面都將超越凱勒·穆雷（Kyler Murray）。紅雀隊經歷了一個糟糕的賽季，他們的防守繼續陷入困境，並在客場面臨重大挑戰。我們在這裡處於相似的位置。今年晚些時候，當你試圖趕上pick 'em時，也許你會在這裡乘坐飛往亞利桑那州的飛機，但現在你想隨波逐流。

Favorite Coin Flip

最喜歡的拋硬幣

Each week, I'll highlight my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

每週，我都會重點介紹我最喜歡的對決，其中兩支球隊在公共池中的選秀率都沒有超過 60%（如果可能）。從長遠來看，這些比賽是選秀聯盟獲勝的關鍵。你可能會不時碰上大弱者，但從長遠來看，在這些被認為更接近的對決中佔據正確位置可能是一個巨大的優勢。

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

達拉斯牛仔隊對克里夫蘭布朗隊 (-2.5)

This game is the closest we have to a coin flip but there's still a large disparity. Over two-thirds of the picks are coming in on Dallas this week. This is a good leverage spot where you can gain a bit of a leg up on other entries in your pool if you go with Cleveland. The Browns were already solid on defense but with the additions of Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Thomas, and Juan Thornhill they could be a true force this year. There are plenty of scenarios here where the Browns defensive line disrupts the Cowboys enough to win the game. If Deshaun Watson can hold up his end of the bargain, this could be a spot where you gain points on two-thirds of the league.

這個遊戲是我們最接近擲硬幣的遊戲，但仍然存在著很大的差距。本週超過三分之二的選秀權將來自達拉斯。這是一個很好的槓桿點，如果你選擇克利夫蘭，你可以在你的池中的其他條目中獲得一點優勢。布朗隊的防守已經很穩固，但隨著扎達柳斯史密斯、達爾文托馬斯和胡安桑希爾的加盟，他們今年可能會成為一支真正的力量。在很多情況下，布朗隊的防守線都會擾亂牛仔隊，從而贏得比賽。如果德肖恩沃森能夠履行他的承諾，這可能是你在聯盟三分之二的比賽中獲得積分的地方。

Surviving Survivor

倖存的倖存者

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

倖存者池是一個獨特的策略挑戰，如果重點放錯了，可能會導致提前退出。許多參與者都非常注重在賽季後期拯救強大的球隊，但如果你忽視了你所處的一周，這種策略可能會適得其反。

The Top Three

前三名

Week 1 presents a relatively clear set of top survivor picks, and three teams stand out as the best options. At the top of the list, the Cincinnati Bengals are the chalkiest pick, opening as 9-point favorites against the New England Patriots. The Patriots enter the season with a myriad of issues, including uncertainty at quarterback and an overhauled roster that lacks proven playmakers. The Bengals’ potent offense, led by Joe Burrow, makes them a safe play.

第一周提供了一組相對清晰的頂級倖存者選擇，其中三支球隊脫穎而出，成為最佳選擇。排在榜首的是辛辛那提猛虎隊，他們是最有希望的新秀，他們在對陣新英格蘭愛國者隊的比賽中以 9 分領先。愛國者隊在進入新賽季時遇到了很多問題，包括四分衛的不確定性以及徹底改革的陣容中缺乏成熟的組織者。孟加拉虎隊在喬·伯羅的帶領下強大的進攻使他們的比賽變得安全。

The Buffalo Bills are the next most popular survivor pick, favored by 5.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills offer a great blend of safety and strategic value; while they are not the most popular pick, they still have a strong win probability, making them a reliable choice. Arizona’s roster instability, combined with Buffalo's home-field advantage, makes this a straightforward pick that provides a good balance between safety and long-term planning.

布法羅比爾隊是下一個最受歡迎的倖存者選擇，在對陣亞利桑那紅雀隊時以 5.5 分的優勢獲勝。該法案將安全性和戰略價值完美地結合在一起；雖然他們不是最受歡迎的選擇，但他們仍然有很強的獲勝機率，使他們成為可靠的選擇。亞利桑那州陣容的不穩定，加上布法羅的主場優勢，使得這個選擇成為一個簡單的選擇，在安全性和長期規劃之間提供了良好的平衡。

The third option is the Seattle Seahawks, who are slightly less popular but offer significant value for those looking to save top teams like the Bengals for

第三個選擇是西雅圖海鷹隊，他們的受歡迎程度稍低，但對於那些希望拯救猛虎隊這樣的頂級球隊的人來說具有重要價值。