市場資深人士堅稱，比特幣仍有可能出現更嚴重的崩盤

幾位資深分析師和行業領袖認為，在唐納德·川普獲勝之前，比特幣的價格水平可能會暴跌。

Several veteran analysts and industry leaders believe a Bitcoin crash to price levels before the Donald Trump victory is possible.

幾位資深分析師和行業領袖認為，在唐納德·川普獲勝之前，比特幣的價格水平可能會暴跌。

Bitcoin’s remarkable surge from $66,000 on Nov. 4 to an all-time high of $108,000 on Dec. 17 has been followed by massive volatility. The asset has since collapsed to the $96,000 level amid market uncertainty.

比特幣從 11 月 4 日的 66,000 美元飆升至 12 月 17 日的歷史高點 108,000 美元，隨後出現了大幅波動。此後，由於市場不確定性，該資產已跌至 96,000 美元的水平。

As the bearish spell lingers, analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin crashing to the $70,000 range. Notably, he cited his previous analyses and those of other industry veterans to drive home this point.

隨著看跌情緒持續存在，分析師 Ali Martinez 強調了比特幣跌至 7 萬美元區間的可能性。值得注意的是，他引用了他先前的分析以及其他行業資深人士的分析來闡明這一點。

Market Veterans Insist Deeper Bitcoin Crash Still PossibleHe called attention to a commentary from market veteran Tone Vays, who highlighted the importance of the $92,000 range as Bitcoin’s “last line of support.” Vays warned that a breach of this level could lead to a drop to $73,000.

市場資深人士堅稱，比特幣仍有可能出現更嚴重的崩盤，他呼籲人們關注市場資深人士 Tone Vays 的評論，後者強調了 92,000 美元區間作為比特幣「最後支撐線」的重要性。 Vays 警告稱，突破這一水平可能會導致價格跌至 73,000 美元。

Similarly, Thomas Lee and Mark Newton of Fundstrat foresee a temporary decline before Bitcoin resumes its long-term upward trajectory. Citing Newton, Lee suggested that a dip to the $60,000s is possible before a rally to $250,000 by 2025

同樣，Fundstrat 的 Thomas Lee 和 Mark Newton 預計，在比特幣恢復長期上漲軌跡之前，比特幣將出現暫時下跌。 Lee 引用牛頓的話表示，到 2025 年，價格可能會跌至 6 萬美元，然後反彈至 25 萬美元

Also, Market veteran Michaël van de Poppe previously compared Bitcoin’s performance to historical market patterns, such as the QQQ ETF launch in 1999. He speculated that Bitcoin could mimic this QQQ's price behavior by spiking to $120,000 in January 2025 before retracing sharply to $60,000.

此外，市場資深人士Michaël van de Poppe 先前將比特幣的表現與歷史市場模式進行了比較，例如1999 年推出的QQQ ETF。至12 萬美元，然後大幅回落至6 萬美元。

Interestingly, Peter Brandt also discussed the bearish outlook on Dec. 20, identifying a right-angled broadening triangle in Bitcoin’s chart. Brandt noted that this pattern could align with a test of the $70,000 range, depending on how the market unfolds.

有趣的是，Peter Brandt 也在 12 月 20 日討論了看跌前景，並在比特幣圖表中發現了一個直角擴大的三角形。 Brandt 指出，這種模式可能與 70,000 美元區間的測試保持一致，具體取決於市場如何發展。

Martinez Warns of Bitcoin’s Delicate PositionCiting these predictions, Martinez suggested that a drop to $70,000 could actually be possible. He issued his initial warning on Dec. 22, identifying a support zone between $97,041 and $93,806.

馬丁內斯警告比特幣的脆弱地位 馬丁內斯引述這些預測表示，比特幣實際上有可能跌至 70,000 美元。他於 12 月 22 日發出初步警告，確定支撐區位於 97,041 美元至 93,806 美元之間。

He argued that if Bitcoin fails to hold within this critical range, a decline to $70,085 is likely, as there is minimal support below this level.

他認為，如果比特幣未能保持在這一關鍵區間內，則可能會跌至 70,085 美元，因為低於該水平的支撐很小。

He further supported this view with data showing that market participants had transferred over 33,000 BTC, worth $3.23 billion at the time, to exchanges over a 1-week period, signaling potential sell-off activity.

他進一步支持了這一觀點，數據顯示，市場參與者在 1 週內向交易所轉移了超過 33,000 個比特幣，當時價值 32.3 億美元，這表明潛在的拋售活動。

Some savvy investors appear to be aware of such a bearish scenario, and they have sent over 33,000 #Bitcoin $BTC to exchanges over the past week, valued at more than $3.23 billion!https://t.co/P8BIzqvQP8

一些精明的投資者似乎意識到了這種看跌的情況，他們在過去一周向交易所發送了超過 33,000 個#Bitcoin $BTC，價值超過 32.3 億美元！

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 26 日

Further, on Dec. 23, Martinez noted that investors realized more than $7.17 billion in Bitcoin profits in a single day, indicating an increase in profit-taking trades as traders moved to secure gains.

此外，12 月 23 日，馬丁內斯指出，投資者單日實現了超過 71.7 億美元的比特幣利潤，這表明隨著交易者尋求獲利，獲利了結交易有所增加。

The analyst also observed in a previous analysis that Bitcoin had broken below its crucial $97,300 support level. According to him, unless Bitcoin reclaims this zone and closes above $100,000 on the daily chart, the bearish outlook will remain intact.

該分析師還在先前的分析中觀察到，比特幣已跌破其關鍵支撐位 97,300 美元。他表示，除非比特幣收復該區域並在日線圖上收於 10 萬美元以上，否則看跌前景將保持不變。

#Bitcoin $BTC recently broke below one of its most significant support zones at $97,300.

#Bitcoin $BTC 最近跌破了最重要的支撐區域之一 97,300 美元。

So, for the bearish outlook to be invalidated,#BTC must reclaim this critical area of support and, more importantly, sustain a daily close above $100,000!https://t.co/oaE6S8cP0Q

因此，為了使看跌前景失效，#BTC 必須奪回這一關鍵支撐區域，更重要的是，維持每日收盤價高於 100,000 美元！

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2024

— 阿里 (@ali_charts) 2024 年 12 月 26 日

Meanwhile, on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, Martinez pointed to a shift in market sentiment. The percentage of Binance traders holding long Bitcoin positions dropped sharply, from 66.73% to 53.60%. This decline indicates waning confidence among investors.

同時，12 月 25 日聖誕節，馬丁內斯指出市場情緒發生了轉變。幣安交易者持有比特幣多頭的比例大幅下降，從 66.73% 降至 53.60%。這種下降表示投資者信心減弱。

Despite these warnings, Martinez believes that Bitcoin will not be lost. He argues that a recovery above $100,000 could invalidate the bearish scenario and potentially spark a rally to $168,500, based on the Mayer Multiple metric. However, the possibility of a crash remains if the key support zones fail to hold.

儘管有這些警告，馬丁內斯相信比特幣不會丟失。他認為，根據梅耶倍數指標，復甦至 10 萬美元以上可能會使看跌情景失效，並可能引發反彈至 168,500 美元。然而，如果關鍵支撐區域未能守住，崩盤的可能性仍然存在。

Currently, Bitcoin trades for $96,243, up 45% since the Donald Trump election victory. A drop to $70,000 would mark a27% decline from here. The leading asset gained 0

目前，比特幣交易價格為 96,243 美元，自唐納德·川普當選以來上漲了 45%。如果跌至 70,000 美元，則意味著下跌 27%。龍頭資產漲幅為0