Kalshi 和 Polymarket 預測比特幣 2025 年價格：短期和長期押注

2025 年 1 月 12 日，比特幣價格一直在 95,000 美元區間內波動，而預測平台上的市場參與者

Bitcoin’s price has been drifting within the $95,000 range on Jan. 12, 2025. In the meantime, market participants on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are placing their bets on bitcoin’s future trajectory.

2025 年 1 月 12 日，比特幣的價格一直在 95,000 美元的區間內波動。

Currently, a Polymarket wager has a 12% likelihood that bitcoin could climb to $120,000 by the close of the month.

目前，Polymarket 的投注有 12% 的可能性使比特幣在本月底攀升至 12 萬美元。

Kalshi and Polymarket Forecast Bitcoin’s 2025 Price: Short- and Long-Term Bets

Kalshi 和 Polymarket 預測比特幣 2025 年價格：短期和長期押注

Looking ahead to 2025, expectations are high. According to the Chinese Zodiac, this is the Year of the Wood Snake, a time symbolizing growth and strategic foresight. One strategy drawing significant attention is whether President-elect Donald Trump will establish a national strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States.

展望 2025 年，人們的期望很高。根據十二生肖，今年是木蛇年，象徵成長和戰略遠見。備受關注的一項策略是當選總統川普是否會為美國建立國家戰略比特幣儲備。

In parallel, some experts and analysts predict that Trump’s inauguration could trigger a bullish movement for BTC, propelling its value to new heights.

同時，一些專家和分析師預測，川普的就職可能會引發比特幣的看漲走勢，將其價值推向新的高度。

On Kalshi, a long-term bet is in play regarding the potential peak of bitcoin’s value before 2026. Currently, there’s a 59% probability that its price will reach $125,000 or higher. Thirty-five percent of bettors anticipate the price to exceed $150,000, while 29% predict it will surpass $160,000. As of now, this particular Kalshi wager is valued at $133,000.

在 Kalshi 上，人們對 2026 年之前比特幣價值的潛在高峰進行了長期押注。 35% 的投注者預計價格將超過 15 萬美元，29% 的投注者預計價格將超過 16 萬美元。截至目前，Kalshi 的這項賭注價值為 133,000 美元。

Meanwhile, a more immediate wager on Polymarket, titled “What price will Bitcoin hit in January?” has seen roughly $6.2 million in activity.

與此同時，對 Polymarket 進行了更直接的投注，題為“比特幣一月份會達到什麼價格？”大約有 620 萬美元的活動。

At present, the leading option is $90,000, with a 61% probability, followed by $105,000 at 41%. Bettors give $110,000 a 26% chance, while $80,000 is predicted with a 16% likelihood. The odds for $120,000 stand at 12%, and the chances for $130,000 are at 4%. The extravagant $200,000 has a slim 1% chance, with $150,000 holding odds of around 2%, and $140,000 slightly higher by a single percentage point.

目前，領先的選項是 90,000 美元，機率為 61%，其次是 105,000 美元，機率為 41%。投注者給出 110,000 美元獎金的機率為 26%，而預測獎金為 80,000 美元的機率為 16%。獲得 12 萬美元的幾率為 12%，獲得 13 萬美元的幾率為 4%。 20 萬美元的奢侈賠率只有 1%，15 萬美元的賠率約為 2%，而 14 萬美元則略高一個百分點。

Another Polymarket wager, titled “What price will Bitcoin hit by March 31?” has accumulated about $1 million in volume, with $90,000 leading the predictions at 76%. There’s a 64% chance the price will reach $110,000 by that time, and 47% predict a range near $80,000. Around 43% of bettors are backing $120,000, while 28% expect $130,000 by the end of March. There’s a 13% likelihood of $150,000, and 7% of bettors see $200,000 as a possible outcome.

Polymarket 的另一個賭注，標題為“到 3 月 31 日比特幣將達到什麼價格？”累計銷售量約 100 萬美元，其中 9 萬美元領先預測 76%。到那時，價格有 64% 的可能性將達到 11 萬美元，47% 的人預計價格範圍將接近 8 萬美元。大約 43% 的投注者投注 120,000 美元，而 28% 的投注者預計到 3 月底投注 130,000 美元。 150,000 美元的可能性為 13%，7% 的投注者認為可能的結果為 200,000 美元。

As 2025 progresses, the activity in prediction markets reflects the growing anticipation surrounding bitcoin’s future. While the price remains fluid, investors are betting on pivotal factors that could significantly shape its trajectory. The outcome of these wagers will offer a glance into the confidence and expectations surrounding the cryptocurrency’s potential as the year unfolds.

隨著 2025 年的進展，預測市場的活動反映出人們對比特幣未來的預期日益增長。儘管價格仍然不穩定，但投資者押注於可能顯著影響其趨勢的關鍵因素。這些押注的結果將讓人們了解今年加密貨幣潛力的信心和預期。