傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的克里斯托弗伍德 (Christopher Wood) 計劃在比特幣價格達到 15 萬美元後計入利潤

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 全球股票策略主管克里斯多福伍德 (Christopher Wood) 在其以美元計價的退休金全球投資組合中持有 10% 的比特幣權重

Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, who has 10 per cent weight in Bitcoin in his global portfolio for a US dollar-denominated pension fund, plans to book profit in the cryptocurrency once it hits the $150,000 mark, up nearly 53 per cent from the current levels of $98,300 levels.

傑富瑞(Jefferies) 全球股票策略主管克里斯托弗·伍德(Christopher Wood) 在其以美元計價的退休基金的全球投資組合中，比特幣佔了10% 的比重，他計劃在加密貨幣價格達到15 萬美元大關（上漲近53 美元）後，以加密貨幣計入利潤。

The initial stake in Bitcoin in the pension fund portfolio was taken in December 2020 when the price was $22,779. Wood also has a 5 per cent weight in a Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) in his global long-only equity portfolio.

退休基金投資組合中的比特幣最初於 2020 年 12 月買入，當時價格為 22,779 美元。伍德在其全球多頭股票投資組合中也持有比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 5% 的權重。

The base case, Wood said, is not to try and trade these positions, most particularly in the pension fund portfolio.

伍德表示，基本情況是不要嘗試交易這些頭寸，尤其是退休基金投資組合。

“Still, for those with a more tactical focus, or owning Bitcoin on leverage, GREED & fear’s view is that $150,000 is a good price level to start taking some profits since GREED & fear’s base case is that Bitcoin will rally three times in this post-halving cycle since the trend has been for the capital gains on holding Bitcoin to more than halve following each halving cycle,” Wood wrote in his recent weekly note to investors, GREED & fear.

「不過，對於那些更具戰術重點或透過槓桿持有比特幣的人來說，貪婪和恐懼的觀點是，150,000 美元是開始獲利了結的良好價格水平，因為貪婪和恐懼的基本情況是比特幣將在本文中上漲三倍-減半週期，因為趨勢是持有比特幣的資本收益在每個減半週期後都會減少一半以上，」伍德在最近給投資者的每週報告《貪婪與恐懼》中寫道。

The conviction for Wood to hold on to bitcoin for now and the belief that it will rise to $150,000 levels going ahead stems from the fact that US President elect, Donald Trump has signaled a change of regulatory policy towards crypto at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

伍德目前持有比特幣的信念以及比特幣未來將升至 15 萬美元水平的信念源於美國當選總統唐納德·特朗普已表示美國證券交易委員會將改變對加密貨幣的監管政策（美國證券交易委員會）。

“This is now surely coming. It is also worth noting that Howard Lutnick, the co-chair of Trump’s transition team as well as Trump’s pick to be Commerce Secretary, is also a champion of Bitcoin and crypto. It is also the case that Lutnick is chief executive officer of Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, which is one of the major custodians of the crypto world’s major stablecoin Tether in terms of where the latter deposits its dollars,” Wood wrote.

「現在這肯定會到來。同樣值得注意的是，川普過渡團隊聯合主席、川普提名的商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克也是比特幣和加密貨幣的擁護者。盧特尼克也是華爾街公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 的首席執行官，該公司是加密貨幣世界主要穩定幣 Tether 的主要託管人之一，後者存放美元。

Up, up and away

向上，向上，離開

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has gained 164 per cent in the last one year – from a level of around $37,000 to nearly $98,300 now. This is despite the cryptocurrency halving in April 2024.

與此同時，比特幣在過去一年上漲了 164%，從 37,000 美元左右上漲到現在的近 98,300 美元。儘管加密貨幣在 2024 年 4 月減半，但情況仍然如此。

After the first halving on 28 November 2012, Bitcoin rose about 90 times in the following 12 months, while the second halving on 9 July 2016 resulted in a 30-fold gain within 18 months.

2012年11月28日第一次減半後，比特幣在接下來的12個月內上漲了約90倍，而2016年7月9日的第二次減半則在18個月內上漲了30倍。

As for the third halving on 11 May 2020, Bitcoin rose 7.5-fold in the following 11 months to a high in April 2021 and was up eight-fold in 18 months to a then all-time-high of $68,992 in November 2021. After the latest halving on 19 April 2024, Bitcoin has since risen by 54 per cent to $98,300 levels.

至於2020年5月11日的第三次減半，比特幣在接下來的11個月內上漲了7.5倍，達到2021年4月的高點，並在18個月內上漲了8倍，在2021年11月達到了當時的歷史新高68,992美元。