以太坊（ETH）價格從12月的最高水平崩潰了52％以上

以太坊（ETH）在12月達到了4,105美元的峰值，並在3月20日的交易價格為1,970美元。這次52％的崩潰使其成為市場上表現最差的藍籌硬幣之一。

Ethereum (ETH) price has crashed by over 52% from its highest level in December, and technicals and on-chain metrics point to more downside in the near term.

以太坊（ETH）的價格從12月的最高水平開始崩潰了52％以上，而且技術和鏈度指標在短期內指出了更多的下跌。

Ethereum (ETH) peaked at $4,105 in December and was trading at $1,970 on March 20. This 52% crash makes it one of the worst-performing blue-chip coins in the market.

以太坊（ETH）在12月達到了4,105美元的峰值，並在3月20日的交易價格為1,970美元。這次52％的崩潰使其成為市場上表現最差的藍籌硬幣之一。

Ether has crashed as concerns about its future remain. Just this week, Standard Chartered analysts downgraded their estimate by 60% from $10,000 to $4,000, citing the rising competition from layer-1 and layer-2 networks that have affected its revenue growth.

Ether崩潰了，因為仍然對其未來的擔憂。就在本週，標準特許分析師將其估計值從10,000美元下調至4,000美元，理由是從1層和第2層網絡的競爭不斷上升，這些網絡影響了其收入增長。

Layer-2 networks on Ethereum, like Coinbase's Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, have drawn more users to their ecosystems because of their lower fees. For example, DeFi Llama's data shows that DEX Ethereum protocols handled over $9.8 billion in volume in the last seven days.

以太坊上的第2層網絡，例如Coinbase的基礎，仲裁和樂觀，由於費用較低，因此吸引了更多用戶進入其生態系統。例如，Defi Llama的數據表明，DEX以太坊協議在過去7天內處理了超過98億美元的數量。

Arbitrum handled $2.87 billion, while Base had $2.8 billion. In the past, this volume would have been handled on Ethereum's mainnet network.

仲裁處理了28.7億美元，而基地有28億美元。過去，該卷本來可以在以太坊的主網網絡上處理。

Ethereum is also seeing intensified competition from layer-1 networks like Solana (SOL) and BNB Chain. BNB Smart Chain's DEX protocols handled DEX volume worth over $13 billion in the last seven days.

以太坊還看到來自Solana（Sol）和BNB鍊等層網絡的競爭加劇。 BNB Smart Chain的DEX協議在過去的七天中處理了價值超過130億美元的DEX量。

Ethereum is also not expected to be a major beneficiary of emerging technologies like Real World Asset tokenization because of its higher fees and slower speed. Instead, developers may opt to use other scalable and cheaper networks like Mantra (OM) and BNB Chain.

以太坊也不預計將成為新興技術的主要受益者，例如現實世界資產令牌化，因為其費用較高和速度較慢。相反，開發人員可以選擇使用其他可擴展和便宜的網絡，例如Mantra（OM）和BNB鏈。

Ethereum has weak on-chain metrics

以太坊的鍊鍊指標較弱

More data shows that the number of active addresses on Ethereum has declined in the past few months. The chart below from Santiment shows that Ethereum had 461,000 active addresses on Wednesday, down from 717,000 earlier this year.

更多數據顯示，過去幾個月，以太坊上的活動地址數量有所下降。下面的圖表顯示，以太坊在周三早些時候有461,000個活動地址，低於今年早些時候的717,000。

Another notable data point is Ethereum's realized cap HODL wave, which is shown in blue. It has crashed to the lowest point since August last year, a sign that long-term holders have started to sell.

另一個值得注意的數據點是以太坊已實現的帽hodl波，該波浪以藍色顯示。自去年8月以來，它已經撞到了最低點，這表明長期持有人已經開始出售。

The 365-day mean dollar invested age or MDIA, which calculates the duration that each coin has stayed in an address and all the money used to buy it, has dropped to its September lows.

365天的平均美元投資年齡或MDIA計算了每個硬幣一直在地址中的持續時間，以及用於購買該硬幣的所有資金，已下降到9月的低點。

Ethereum price technical analysis

以太坊價格技術分析

The daily chart shows that the ETH price has been in a strong downward trend over the past few months. This drop started after it formed a triple-top pattern at $4,000, with the neckline at $2,120.

每日圖表顯示，在過去的幾個月中，ETH價格一直處於強勁的下降趨勢。這種下降始於它以4,000美元的價格形成三層圖案，其領口為2,120美元。

Ether then formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed each other. This cross often leads to more downside momentum. Also, popular oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and Percentage Price Oscillator have dropped.

然後，隨著50天和200天的移動平均值相互交叉，以太形成了死亡交叉模式。這個十字架通常會導致更多的下行勢頭。此外，流行的振盪器（例如相對強度指數和百分比價格振盪器）也下降了。

Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling as sellers target the psychological point at $1,500, which is about 25% below the current level.

因此，由於賣方將硬幣以1,500美元的價格定位為賣方，這可能會繼續下降，這比當前水平低約25％。