在連續的17.39％和2.3％的逐漸降低之後

在2月和3月的連續下降17.39％和2.3％之後，比特幣（BTC）

After consecutive drawdowns of 17.39% and 2.3% in February and March, Bitcoin's (BTC) Q2 is shaping up nicely, with a return of 3.77% in April. While fresh yearly lows were formed at $74,500, BTC is currently closer to $90,000 than its new range bottom.

在2月和3月的連續下降量為17.39％和2.3％之後，比特幣（BTC）Q2很好地塑造了，4月份的回報率為3.77％。雖然每年的低點以74,500美元的價格形成，但BTC目前比其新範圍底部的底部接近90,000美元。

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣1天圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

The cryptocurrency's higher time frame (HTF) market structure has achieved its first breakout of 2025, fueling optimism among bulls for significant upward momentum. However, the following factors might limit Bitcoin's gains over the next two weeks, likely capping its price at around $90,000.

加密貨幣的較高時間範圍（HTF）市場結構已經達到了2025年的首次突破，這激發了公牛在巨大的向上勢頭中的樂觀態度。但是，以下因素可能會在接下來的兩週內限制比特幣的收益，這可能會將其價格限制在90,000美元左右。

Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price 'seasonality?'

3個月的比特幣RSI高點可以反對看跌BTC的價格“季節性？”

Cointelegraph identified a cooldown period in the futures market as the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio dropped by 50%. De-leveraging in the futures market is a positive development over the long term, but derivatives traders have taken control of the market at the time as well.

Cointelegraph確定了期貨市場的冷卻時間，因為BTC-USDT期貨槓桿率下降了50％。從長遠來看，在期貨市場上掌握的是一個積極的發展，但是衍生品交易者當時也控制了市場。

Bitcoin cumulative net take volume. Source: X.com

比特幣累積淨量的數量。資料來源：X.com

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin's cumulative net taker volume spiked to $800 million on April 11, hinting at a surge in aggressive buying. BTC price also jumped from $78,000 to $85,000 within three days, confirming previous historical patterns where high net take volume triggers price rallies.

比特幣研究員小阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr. BTC的價格也從三天內從78,000美元上漲至85,000美元，確認了以前的歷史模式，高淨量觸發了價格集會。

Likewise, Maartunn, a community analyst at CryptoQuant, confirmed that the current rally is a "leverage-driven pump." The discrepancy arises because retail or spot traders are not as relevant.

同樣，加密富裕的社區分析師Maartunn確認目前的集會是“槓桿驅動的泵”。由於零售或現貨交易者沒有相關性而出現差異。

Bitcoin 30-day apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣30天的明顯需求。資料來源：加密

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin apparent demand is on a recovery path, but it is not net positive yet. Historically, 30-day apparent demand can move sideways for a prolonged period after BTC reaches a local bottom, leading to a sideways chop for the crypto.

如圖所示，比特幣明顯的需求是在恢復路徑上，但尚未淨正。從歷史上看，在BTC到達當地底部後，長時間的需求可以長時間向側面移動，從而導致加密貨幣的側面切碎。

Thus, it is less likely that Bitcoin could breach $90,000 in the first attempt after dropping close to 20% until there is collective buying pressure from both spot and futures markets.

因此，在近20％下降了20％之後，比特幣在第一次嘗試中違反90,000美元的可能性較小，直到現貨和期貨市場都有集體購買壓力。

Large liquidation clusters between $80-$90K may bait traders

大型清算集群在$ 80- $ 90K之間，可以誘餌交易者

With futures traders positioning in either direction, data from CoinGlass highlighted significant cumulative long and short liquidation leverage between $80,000 and $90,000. Taking $85,100 at the base price, total cumulative short positions at risk of liquidation are at $6.5 billion if BTC price hits $90,035.

隨著期貨交易者的定位，Coinglass的數據強調了累積的長長和短清算槓桿率在80,000美元至90,000美元之間。如果BTC價格上漲90,035美元，則以基本價格的價格為85,100美元，總累計短額頭寸為65億美元。

Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

比特幣交換清算圖。資料來源：小店

On the other hand, $4.86 billion in long orders will be wiped out if BTC drops to $80,071. While liquidation clusters do not determine directional bias, they can create long or short squeezes, baiting traders on either side of respective trades.

另一方面，如果BTC降至80,071美元，將消除48.6億美元的長訂單。儘管清算簇不能確定方向性偏差，但它們可以產生長或短的擠壓，從而在各個交易的兩邊誘餌交易者。

With such high capital at risk under $90,000, it is possible that Bitcoin may target each cluster before moving toward the dominant side.

由於如此高的資本低於90,000美元的風險，比特幣可能會在朝著主導方面邁進。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。